Initialisation of Land Surface Variables for Numerical Weather Prediction

2012 ◽  
pp. 607-621
Author(s):  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo ◽  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater ◽  
Lars Isaksen
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather

scholarly journals Prediction of Hub Height Winds over the Plateau Terrain by using WRF /YSU/Noah and Statistical Forecast

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Deng ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Yingchao Zhang ◽  
Hou Zhou ◽  
Peipei Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Numerical Weather

The forecast of wind energy is closely linked to the prediction of the variation of winds over very short time intervals. Four wind towers located in the Inner Mongolia were selected to understand wind power resources in the compound plateau region. The mesoscale weather research and forecasting combining Yonsei University scheme and Noah land surface model (WRF/YSU/Noah) with 1-km horizontal resolution and 10-min time resolution were used to be as the wind numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Three statistical techniques, persistence, back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN), and least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) were used to improve the wind speed forecasts at a typical wind turbine hub height (70 m) along with the WRF/YSU/Noah output. The current physical-statistical forecasting techniques exhibit good skill in three different time scales: (1) short-term (day-ahead); (2) immediate-short-term (6-h ahead); and (3) nowcasting (1-h ahead). The forecast method, which combined WRF/YSU/Noah outputs, persistence, and LS-SVM methods, increases the forecast skill by 26.3-49.4% compared to the direct outputs of numerical WRF/YSU/Noah model. Also, this approach captures well the diurnal cycle and seasonal variability of wind speeds, as well as wind direction. Predicción de vientos en una altiplanicie a la altura del eje con el esquema de la Universidad Yonsei/Modelo Superficie Terrestre Noah y la predicción estadísticaResumenLa estimación de la energía eólica está relacionada con la predicción en la variación de los vientos en pequeños intervalos de tiempo. Se seleccionaron cuatro torres eólicas ubicadas al interior de Mongolia para estudiar los recursos eólicos en la complejidad de un altiplano. Se utilizó la investigación climática a mesoscala y la combinación del esquema de la Universidad Yonsei con el Modelo de Superficie Terrestre Noah (WRF/YSU/Noah), con resolución de 1km horizontal y 10 minutos, como el modelo numérico de predicción meteorológica (NWP, del inglés Numerical Weather Prediction). Se utilizaron tres técnicas estadísticas, persistencia, propagación hacia atrás en redes neuronales artificiales y máquina de vectores de soporte-mínimos cuadrados (LS-SVM, del inglés Least Square Support Vector Machine), para mejorar la predicción de la velocidad del viento en una turbina con la altura del eje a 70 metros y se complementó con los resultados del WRF/YSU/Noah. Las técnicas de predicción físico-estadísticas actuales tienen un buen desempeo en tres escalas de tiempo: (1) corto plazo, un día en adelante; (2) mediano plazo, de seis días en adelante; (3) cercano, una hora en adelante. Este método de predicción, que combina los resultados WRF/YSU/Noah con los métodos de persistencia y LS-SVM incrementa la precisión de predicción entre 26,3 y 49,4 por ciento, comparado con los resultados directos del modelo numérico WRF/YSU/Noah. Además, este método diferencia la variabilidad de las estaciones y el ciclo diurno en la velocidad y la dirección del viento.

Estimates of the Earth surface influence on the accuracy of numerical prediction of air temperature in Belarus using the WRF model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 50-68
Author(s):  
S.А. Lysenko ◽  
◽  
P.О. Zaiko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Global Land

The spatial structure of land use and biophysical characteristics of land surface (albedo, leaf index, and vegetation cover) are updated using the GLASS (Global Land Surface Satellite) and GLC2019 (Global Land Cover, 2019) modern satellite databases for mesoscale numerical weather prediction with the WRF model for the territory of Belarus. The series of WRF-based numerical experiments was performed to verify the influence of the updated characteristics on the forecast quality for some difficult to predict winter cases. The model was initialized by the GFS (Global Forecast System, NCEP) global numerical weather prediction model. It is shown that the use of high-resolution land use data in the WRF and the consideration of the new albedo and leaf index distribution over the territory of Belarus can reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of short-range (to 48 hours) forecasts of surface air temperature by 16–33% as compared to the GFS. The RMSE of the temperature forecast for the weather stations in Belarus for a forecast lead time of 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours decreased on average by 0.40°С (19%), 0.35°С (10%), 0.68°С (23%), and 0.56°С (15%), respectively. The most significant decrease in RMSE of the numerical forecast of temperature (up to 2.1 °С) was obtained for the daytime (for a lead time of 12 and 36 hours), when positive feedbacks between albedo and temperature of the land surface are manifested most. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, WRF, digital land surface model, albedo, leaf area index, forecast model validation

scholarly journals A fast visible-wavelength 3D radiative transfer model for numerical weather prediction visualization and forward modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3235-3261
Author(s):  
Steven Albers ◽  
Stephen M. Saleeby ◽  
Sonia Kreidenweis ◽  
Qijing Bian ◽  
Peng Xian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Visible Wavelength

Abstract. Solar radiation is the ultimate source of energy flowing through the atmosphere; it fuels all atmospheric motions. The visible-wavelength range of solar radiation represents a significant contribution to the earth's energy budget, and visible light is a vital indicator for the composition and thermodynamic processes of the atmosphere from the smallest weather scales to the largest climate scales. The accurate and fast description of light propagation in the atmosphere and its lower-boundary environment is therefore of critical importance for the simulation and prediction of weather and climate. Simulated Weather Imagery (SWIm) is a new, fast, and physically based visible-wavelength three-dimensional radiative transfer model. Given the location and intensity of the sources of light (natural or artificial) and the composition (e.g., clear or turbid air with aerosols, liquid or ice clouds, precipitating rain, snow, and ice hydrometeors) of the atmosphere, it describes the propagation of light and produces visually and physically realistic hemispheric or 360∘ spherical panoramic color images of the atmosphere and the underlying terrain from any specified vantage point either on or above the earth's surface. Applications of SWIm include the visualization of atmospheric and land surface conditions simulated or forecast by numerical weather or climate analysis and prediction systems for either scientific or lay audiences. Simulated SWIm imagery can also be generated for and compared with observed camera images to (i) assess the fidelity and (ii) improve the performance of numerical atmospheric and land surface models. Through the use of the latter in a data assimilation scheme, it can also (iii) improve the estimate of the state of atmospheric and land surface initial conditions for situational awareness and numerical weather prediction forecast initialization purposes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Satellite-Derived Land Surface Temperatures on Numerical Weather Prediction Analyses and Forecasts

2017 ◽  
Vol 122 (18) ◽  
pp. 9783-9802 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Candy ◽  
R. W. Saunders ◽  
D. Ghent ◽  
C. E. Bulgin
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Land Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Review of Snow Data Assimilation Methods for Hydrological, Land Surface, Meteorological and Climate Models: Results from a COST HarmoSnow Survey

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Helmert ◽  
Aynur Şensoy Şorman ◽  
Rodolfo Alvarado Montero ◽  
Carlo De Michele ◽  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
The Future

The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES1404 “HarmoSnow”, entitled, “A European network for a harmonized monitoring of snow for the benefit of climate change scenarios, hydrology and numerical weather prediction” (2014-2018) aims to coordinate efforts in Europe to harmonize approaches to validation, and methodologies of snow measurement practices, instrumentation, algorithms and data assimilation (DA) techniques. One of the key objectives of the action was “Advance the application of snow DA in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological models and show its benefit for weather and hydrological forecasting as well as other applications.” This paper reviews approaches used for assimilation of snow measurements such as remotely sensed and in situ observations into hydrological, land surface, meteorological and climate models based on a COST HarmoSnow survey exploring the common practices on the use of snow observation data in different modeling environments. The aim is to assess the current situation and understand the diversity of usage of snow observations in DA, forcing, monitoring, validation, or verification within NWP, hydrology, snow and climate models. Based on the responses from the community to the questionnaire and on literature review the status and requirements for the future evolution of conventional snow observations from national networks and satellite products, for data assimilation and model validation are derived and suggestions are formulated towards standardized and improved usage of snow observation data in snow DA. Results of the conducted survey showed that there is a fit between the snow macro-physical variables required for snow DA and those provided by the measurement networks, instruments, and techniques. Data availability and resources to integrate the data in the model environment are identified as the current barriers and limitations for the use of new or upcoming snow data sources. Broadening resources to integrate enhanced snow data would promote the future plans to make use of them in all model environments.

A Real-Time MODIS Vegetation Product for Land Surface and Numerical Weather Prediction Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 1772-1786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Case ◽  
Frank J. LaFontaine ◽  
Jordan R. Bell ◽  
Gary J. Jedlovec ◽  
Sujay V. Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Evaluation of a NOAH-MP Land Surface Model Ensemble over the Mississippi Basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonas Rothermel ◽  
Maike Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Empirical Parameter ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Parameter Values

<p><span>Physical-based Land Surface Models (LSMs) have deepened the understanding of the hydrological cycle and serve as the lower boundary layer in atmospheric models for numerical weather prediction. As any numerical model, they are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including simplified model physics, unknown empirical parameter values and forcing errors, particularly precipitation. Quantifying these uncertainties is important for assessing the predictive power of the model, especially in applications for environmental hazard warning. Data assimilation systems also benefit from realistic model error estimates.</span></p><p><span><span>In this study, the LSM NOAH-MP is evaluated over the Mississippi basin by running a large ensemble of model configurations with suitably perturbed forcing data and parameter values. For this, sensible parameter distributions are obtained by performing a thorough sensitivity analysis, identifying the most informative parameters beforehand by a screening approach. The ensemble of model outputs is compared against various hydrologic and atmospheric feedback observations, including SCAN soil moisture data, GRACE TWS anomaly data and AmeriFlux evapotranspiration measurements. The long-term aim of this study is to improve land-surface states via data assimilation and to investigate their influence on short- to midterm numerical weather prediction. Thus, the uncertainty of the simulated model states, such as snow, soil moisture in various layers, and groundwater are thoroughly studied to estimate the relative impact of possible hydrologic data sets in the assimilation.</span></span></p>

Initialisation of Land Surface Variables for Numerical Weather Prediction

2012 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 607-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo ◽  
Clément Albergel ◽  
Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater ◽  
Lars Isaksen
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather
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