Calculation of Extreme Precipitation Threshold by Percentile Method Based on Box-Cox Transformation

Author(s):  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Pu-wen Lei ◽  
Koji Koyamada
Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 218
Author(s):  
Changjun Wan ◽  
Changxiu Cheng ◽  
Sijing Ye ◽  
Shi Shen ◽  
Ting Zhang

Precipitation is an essential climate variable in the hydrologic cycle. Its abnormal change would have a serious impact on the social economy, ecological development and life safety. In recent decades, many studies about extreme precipitation have been performed on spatio-temporal variation patterns under global changes; little research has been conducted on the regionality and persistence, which tend to be more destructive. This study defines extreme precipitation events by percentile method, then applies the spatio-temporal scanning model (STSM) and the local spatial autocorrelation model (LSAM) to explore the spatio-temporal aggregation characteristics of extreme precipitation, taking China in July as a case. The study result showed that the STSM with the LSAM can effectively detect the spatio-temporal accumulation areas. The extreme precipitation events of China in July 2016 have a significant spatio-temporal aggregation characteristic. From the spatial perspective, China’s summer extreme precipitation spatio-temporal clusters are mainly distributed in eastern China and northern China, such as Dongting Lake plain, the Circum-Bohai Sea region, Gansu, and Xinjiang. From the temporal perspective, the spatio-temporal clusters of extreme precipitation are mainly distributed in July, and its occurrence was delayed with an increase in latitude, except for in Xinjiang, where extreme precipitation events often take place earlier and persist longer.


2019 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 857-878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahab Shaffie ◽  
GholamAli Mozaffari ◽  
Younes Khosravi

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 407
Author(s):  
Wenhui Liu ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
Rumei Tang ◽  
Mengqi Ye ◽  
Jing Yang

Exploring precipitation threshold from an economic loss perspective is critical for rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment under climate change. Based on the daily gridded precipitation dataset and direct economic losses (DELs) of rainstorm and flood disasters in the mainland of China, this paper first filtered a relatively reasonable disaster-triggering daily precipitation threshold (DDPT) combination according to the relationship between extreme precipitation days and direct economic loss (DEL) rates at province level and then comprehensively analyzed the spatial landscape of DDPT across China. The results show that (1) the daily precipitation determined by the combination of a 10 mm fixed threshold and 99.3th percentile is recognized as the optimal DDPT of rainstorm and flood disasters, and the correlation coefficient between annual extreme precipitation days and DEL rates reached 0.45 (p < 0.01). (2) The optimal DDPT decreases from southeast (up to 87 mm) to northwest (10 mm) across China, and the DDPTs of 7 out of 31 provinces are lower than 25 mm, while 5 provinces are higher than 50 mm on average. These results suggest that DDPTs exist with large spatial heterogeneity across China, and adopting regional differentiated DDPT is helpful for conducting effective disaster risk analysis.


Author(s):  
Z. X. Xu ◽  
Q. Chu

Abstract. In this study, three kinds of hourly precipitation series with the spatial resolution of 0.1° are used to analyze the climatological features and trends of extreme precipitation during the period of 1979–2012 in Beijing, China. The results show that: (1) the spatial distribution of median annual precipitation, with a range from 500 to 825 mm, is similar to that of local topography, which increases from the northwest to the southeast. Taking the urban area as a centre, the inter-annual precipitation in the Beijing area displays an outward decreasing tendency at the maximum rate of 125 mm per decade (125 mm × 10 a−1); (2) extreme precipitation amount, which accounts for 40–48% of total precipitation amount, has a similar spatial distribution to average annual precipitation; (3) the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation days and threshold estimated as the upper 95 percentile are significantly different from that of extreme precipitation, with maximum values concentrated on the urban area and the eastern mountain area, and minimum values in northwest; (4) extreme precipitation days (Ex_pd95) show an opposite distribution to extreme precipitation threshold (Ex_pv95), indicating that areas with greater precipitation threshold may has less precipitation days, and vice versa; (5) an apparent spatiotemporal decreasing tendency is detected in extreme precipitation amount. The downward tendencies are also found in extreme precipitation threshold. Unlike Ex_pv95, in most of the study area, Ex_pd95 is virtually unchanged; (6) downward trends of extreme precipitation is slightly smaller than that of annual precipitation, and the reducing amplitude of north-eastern areas are much higher than the areas in the southwest.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenhui Liu ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
Rumei Tang ◽  
Mengqi Ye ◽  
Jing Yang

&lt;p&gt;Exploring precipitation threshold from an economic loss perspective is critical for rainstorm and &amp;#64258;ood disaster risk assessment under climate change. Based on the daily gridded precipitation dataset and direct economic losses (DELs) of rainstorm and &amp;#64258;ood disasters in the mainland of China, this paper &amp;#64257;rst &amp;#64257;ltered a relatively reasonable disaster-triggering daily precipitation threshold (DDPT) combination according to the relationship between extreme precipitation days and direct economic loss (DEL) rates at province level and then comprehensively analyzed the spatial landscape of DDPT across China. The results show that (1) the daily precipitation determined by the combination of a 10 mm &amp;#64257;xed threshold and 99.3th percentile is recognized as the optimal DDPT of rainstorm and &amp;#64258;ood disasters, and the correlation coe&amp;#64259;cient between annual extreme precipitation days and DEL rates reached 0.45 (p &lt; 0.01). (2) The optimal DDPT decreases from southeast (up to 87 mm) to northwest (10 mm) across China, and the DDPTs of 7 out of 31 provinces are lower than 25 mm, while 5 provinces are higher than 50 mm on average. These results suggest that DDPTs exist with large spatial heterogeneity across China, and adopting regional di&amp;#64256;erentiated DDPT is helpful for conducting e&amp;#64256;ective disaster risk analysis.&lt;/p&gt;


Author(s):  
V.V. Ilinich ◽  
◽  
A.A. Naumova

the presented research is dedicate to confirming the hypothesis about increase in extreme precipitation of recent decades, affecting the degree of soil erosion in crop rotations.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document