scholarly journals A New Preoperative Risk Score for Predicting Postoperative Complications in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hepatectomy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Tomita ◽  
Itsuki Koganezawa ◽  
Masashi Nakagawa ◽  
Shigeto Ochiai ◽  
Takahiro Gunji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Skeletal Muscle ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Surgical Procedure ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Preoperative Risk ◽  
Preoperative Serum ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background Postoperative complications are not rare in the elderly population after hepatectomy. However, predicting postoperative risk in elderly patients undergoing hepatectomy is not easy. We aimed to develop a new preoperative evaluation method to predict postoperative complications in patients above 65 years of age using biological impedance analysis (BIA). Methods Clinical data of 59 consecutive patients (aged 65 years or older) who underwent hepatectomy at our institution between 2017 and 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Risk factors for postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III) were evaluated using multivariate regression analysis. Additionally, a new preoperative risk score was developed for predicting postoperative complications. Results Fifteen patients (25.4%) had postoperative complications, with biliary fistula being the most common complication. Abnormal skeletal muscle mass index from BIA and type of surgical procedure were found to be independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. These two variables and preoperative serum albumin levels were used for developing the risk score. The postoperative complication rate was 0.0% with a risk score of ≤ 1 and 57.1% with a risk score of ≥ 4. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.810 (p = 0.001), which was better than that of other known surgical risk indexes. Conclusion Decreased skeletal muscle and the type of surgical procedure for hepatectomy were independent risk factors for postoperative complications after elective hepatectomy in elderly patients. The new preoperative risk score is simple, easy to perform, and will help in the detection of high-risk elderly patients undergoing elective hepatectomy.

scholarly journals The Efficacy and Safety of Surgical Treatment for Patients With Tuberculosis Destroyed Lung With or Without Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyun Ruan ◽  
Changfan Gong ◽  
Jinxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Surgical Treatment ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Efficacy And Safety ◽  
Pulmonary Aspergillosis ◽  
Preoperative Serum ◽  
Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Destroyed Lung

Abstract Background To evaluate the efficacy and safety of surgical treatment of tuberculosis destroyed lung (TDL), and the influence of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) on the outcomes of surgical treatment of TDL. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of 113 patients with TDL who underwent surgical treatment from January 2005 to December 2019. Among them, 30 of these cases were complicated with CPA. The patients were divided into two groups: TDL group and TDL + CPA group. We analyzed the effectiveness and safety of surgical treatment of TDL, and further compared the effectiveness and safety of surgical treatment of TDL with or withoutthe presence of CPA. Results The TDL + CPA group had a significantly higher age (P=0.003), symptoms of hemoptysis (P=0.000), and a higher proportion of patients with preoperative serum albumin <30 g/L (P=0.014) as compared with TDL group. For all enrolled patients, the incidence of severe postoperative complications was 12.4% (14/113) and the postoperative mortality within 30 days after discharge was 4.4% (5/113). 86.7% (98/113) of the patients recovered and discharged, the incidence of severe postoperative complications in the TDA + CPA group was higher than that of TDL group (23.3% vs 8.4%, P = 0.034), although there was no difference in mortality between the two groups (P = 1.000). A binary logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors for severe postoperative complications were male (OR 25.24, 95% CI 2.31–275.64; P = 0.008) and age ≥ 40 years (OR 10.34, 95% CI 1.56–68.65; P = 0.016). Conclusion Surgical treatment for patients with TDL is effective with an acceptable mortality rate whether or not the disease is complicated with CPA. The independent risk factors identified for severe postoperative complications in patients with TDL were male and ≥ 40 years old. It implies that when treating patients with TDA + CPA, particular attention should be paid to these patients who have these independent risk factors to avoid a poor outcome.

scholarly journals A Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Complications in Elderly with Total Hip Replacement

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiujuan Tan ◽  
Fengmin Ge ◽  
Guixi Mo ◽  
Zhiyi Li ◽  
Xiaoxia Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Postoperative Complication ◽  
Total Hip Replacement ◽  
Hip Replacement ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Total Hip ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background: By analyzing the risk factors of postoperative complications in elderly patients with hip replacement, We aimed to develop a nomogram model based on preoperative and intraoperative variables and verified the sensitivity and specificity for risk stratification of postoperative complications in elderly with total hip replacement patients.Methods: A total of 414 elderly patients who underwent surgical treatment for total hip replacement hospitalized at the Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University from March 1, 2017 to August 31, 2019 were included into this study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were conducted to identify independent risk factors of postoperative complication in the 414 patients. A nomogram was developed by R software and validated to predict the risk of postoperative complications.Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age (OR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.00-1.09) , renal failure(OR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.83～0.97) , Type2 diabetes (OR=1.05, 95% CI: 1.00～1.09) , ALB (OR=0.91, 95% CI: 0.83～0.99) were independent risk factors of postoperative complication in elderly patients with hip replacement (P＜0.05) . For validation of the nomogram, ROC curve revealed that the model predicting postoperative complication in elderly patients with hip replacement was the area under the curve of 0.8254(95% CI: 0.78～0.87) , the slope of the calibration plot was close to 1 and the model passed Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (x2 = 10.16, P=0.4264), calibration in R Emax=0.176, Eavg=0.027, which all demonstrated that the model was of good accuracy. Conclusion: The nomogram predicting postoperative complications in patients with total hip replacement constructed based on age, type 2 diabetes, renal failure and ALB is of good discrimination and accuracy, which was of clinical significance.

scholarly journals New risk factors of postoperative complications in elective gastrointestinal surgery of elderly patients: a prospective cohort study

BMC Surgery ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Yokozuka ◽  
Koichi Tomita ◽  
Masashi Nakagawa ◽  
Itsuki Koganezawa ◽  
Shigeto Ochiai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Skeletal Muscle ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Muscle Mass ◽  
Skeletal Muscle Mass ◽  
Gastrointestinal Surgery ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Grade Iii

Abstract Background Gastrointestinal surgery in elderly individuals presents unexpected postoperative complications. However, predicting postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgeries is challenging because of the lack of a reliable preoperative evaluation system. We aimed to prospectively evaluate three new preoperative assessment methods to predict the postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery. Moreover, we aimed to identify new risk factors of postoperative complications in this patient group. Methods This prospective cohort study enrolled 189 patients (age ≥ 65 years) who underwent elective gastrointestinal surgery at Tokyo Medical University Hachioji Medical Center between April 2017 and March 2019. Assessments performed preoperatively included the biological impedance analysis for evaluating the skeletal muscle mass, the SF-8 questionnaire for evaluating the subjective health-related quality of life, and the blood pressure/pulse wave test for assessing arteriosclerosis. The risk factors for Clavien–Dindo Grade ≥ III postoperative complications were assessed using these new evaluation methods. Results Clavien–Dindo Grade ≥ III postoperative complications were observed in 28 patients (14.8%). Univariate and multivariate analyses identified male sex, low skeletal muscle mass, and cardio-ankle vascular index ≥ 10 (arteriosclerosis) as significant independent risk factors of developing Grade ≥ III complications. Conclusions Male sex, low skeletal muscle mass, and arteriosclerosis were significant risk factors of postoperative complications in elderly patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery. The obtained knowledge could be useful in identifying high-risk patients who require careful perioperative management.

scholarly journals Preoperative risk factors for postoperative blood transfusion after hip fracture surgery: establishment of a nomogram

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fu Cheng Bian ◽  
Xiao Kang Cheng ◽  
Yong Sheng An
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Blood Transfusion ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression ◽  
Preoperative Risk ◽  
Hip Fracture Surgery ◽  
Preoperative Risk Factors ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Fracture Surgery

Abstract Background This study aimed to explore the preoperative risk factors related to blood transfusion after hip fracture operations and to establish a nomogram prediction model. The application of this model will likely reduce unnecessary transfusions and avoid wasting blood products. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of all patients undergoing hip fracture surgery from January 2013 to January 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between preoperative risk factors and blood transfusion after hip fracture operations. Finally, the risk factors obtained from the multivariate regression analysis were used to establish the nomogram model. The validation of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves. Results A total of 820 patients were included in the present study for evaluation. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that low preoperative hemoglobin (Hb), general anesthesia (GA), non-use of tranexamic acid (TXA), and older age were independent risk factors for blood transfusion after hip fracture operation. The C-index of this model was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83–0.89). Internal validation proved the nomogram model’s adequacy and accuracy, and the results showed that the predicted value agreed well with the actual values. Conclusions A nomogram model was developed based on independent risk factors for blood transfusion after hip fracture surgery. Preoperative intervention can effectively reduce the incidence of blood transfusion after hip fracture operations.

scholarly journals Patient determinants as independent risk factors for postoperative complications of breast reconstruction

Gland Surgery ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andri Thorarinsson ◽  
Victoria Fröjd ◽  
Lars Kölby ◽  
Mattias Lidén ◽  
Anna Elander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Breast Reconstruction ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Efficacy and safety of surgery for spontaneous pneumothorax in elderly patients

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shunichi Nagata ◽  
Mitsugu Omasa ◽  
Kosuke Tokushige ◽  
Takao Nakanishi ◽  
Hideki Motoyama
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Surgical Treatment ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Spontaneous Pneumothorax ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Efficacy And Safety ◽  
Air Leaks ◽  
Grade 3

Abstract OBJECTIVES There is no clear consensus on the surgical indications for spontaneous pneumothorax in elderly patients. In this study, we aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of surgical treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax in patients aged ≥70 years. We also sought to identify the risk factors for postoperative prolonged air leaks and complications in such patients. METHODS Data pertaining to 104 elderly patients who underwent surgery out of 206 patients (aged ≥70 years) who were diagnosed with spontaneous pneumothorax at our institution between 1994 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The incidences of postoperative persistent air leaks (≥2 days) and postoperative complications (≥grade 3; Clavien–Dindo classification) were analysed for efficacy and safety assessment, respectively. RESULTS Median postoperative air leaks continued for 0 days (range 0–25); 14.4% patients developed ≥grade 3 postoperative complications. On the basis of results of multivariable analysis, it was observed that a higher PaCO2 level was significantly associated with prolonged postoperative air leaks [odds ratio (OR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00–1.17; P = 0.047]. Poorer performance status was associated with a significantly increased risk of postoperative complications, as assessed by multivariable analysis (OR 6.13, 95% CI 1.38–27.3; P = 0.017). The recurrence rate was 4.8%; mortality rate of patients was 2.9%. Three-year survival rate after surgery was 73.8%. CONCLUSIONS Surgical treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax may be effective and safe in selected elderly patients. Moreover, higher PaCO2 and poorer performance status were independent risk factors for postoperative persistent air leaks and complications, respectively.

scholarly journals A New Rapid Approach for Predicting Death in Coronavirus Patients: The Development and Validation of the COVID-19 Risk-Score in Fars Province (CRSF)

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehrdad Sharifi ◽  
Mohammad Hossein Khademian ◽  
Razieh Sadat Mousavi-Roknabadi ◽  
Vahid Ebrahimi ◽  
Robab Sadegh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
Underlying Diseases

Background:Patients who are identified to be at a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 should receive better treatment and monitoring. This study aimed to propose a simple yet accurate risk assessment tool to help decision-making in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: From Jul to Nov 2020, 5454 patients from Fars Province, Iran, diagnosed with COVID-19 were enrolled. A multiple logistic regression model was trained on one dataset (training set: n=4183) and its prediction performance was assessed on another dataset (testing set: n=1271). This model was utilized to develop the COVID-19 risk-score in Fars (CRSF). Results: Five final independent risk factors including gender (male: OR=1.37), age (60-80: OR=2.67 and >80: OR=3.91), SpO2 (≤85%: OR=7.02), underlying diseases (yes: OR=1.25), and pulse rate (<60: OR=2.01 and >120: OR=1.60) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The CRSF formula was obtained using the estimated regression coefficient values of the aforementioned factors. The point values for the risk factors varied from 2 to 19 and the total CRSF varied from 0 to 45. The ROC analysis showed that the CRSF values of ≥15 (high-risk patients) had a specificity of 73.5%, sensitivity of 76.5%, positive predictive value of 23.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.8% for the prediction of death (AUC=0.824, P<0.0001). Conclusion:This simple CRSF system, which has a high NPV,can be useful for predicting the risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients. It can also be used as a disease severity indicator to determine triage level for hospitalization.

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