Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess
future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the
Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and
3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and
temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6,
4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the
most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and
range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage,
glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area
encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as
well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size
(11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases
(0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water
equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the
century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected
to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will
continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as
of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change
little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases
(compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer)
depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to
39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the
century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards
June.