scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1593-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios as forcing data. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–16 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century, however decreases of 25–80 % in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 13037-13081 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sproles ◽  
A. Nolin ◽  
K. Rittger ◽  
T. Painter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. Globally maritime snow comprises 10% of seasonal snow and is considered highly sensitive to changes in temperature. This study investigates the effect of climate change on maritime mountain snowpack in the McKenzie River Basin (MRB) in the Cascades Mountains of Oregon, USA. Melt water from the MRB's snowpack provides critical water supply for agriculture, ecosystems, and municipalities throughout the region especially in summer when water demand is high. Because maritime snow commonly falls at temperatures close to 0 °C, accumulation of snow versus rainfall is highly sensitive to temperature increases. Analyses of current climate and projected climate change impacts show rising temperatures in the region. To better understand the sensitivity of snow accumulation to increased temperatures, we modeled the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the MRB for the period of 1989–2009 with the SnowModel spatially distributed model. Simulations were evaluated using point-based measurements of SWE, precipitation, and temperature that showed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients of 0.83, 0.97, and 0.80, respectively. Spatial accuracy was shown to be 82% using snow cover extent from the Landsat Thematic Mapper. The validated model was used to evaluate the sensitivity of snowpack to projected temperature increases and variability in precipitation, and how changes were expressed in the spatial and temporal distribution of SWE. Results show that a 2 °C increase in temperature would shift peak snowpack 12 days earlier and decrease basin-wide volumetric snow water storage by 56%. Snowpack between the elevations of 1000 and 1800 m is the most sensitive to increases in temperature. Upper elevations were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Temperature increases are the primary driver of diminished snowpack accumulation, however variability in precipitation produce discernible changes in the timing and volumetric storage of snowpack. This regional scale study serves as a case study, providing a modeling framework to better understand the impacts of climate change in similar maritime regions of the world.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 2789-2803 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Özdoğan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the high-impact A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate but these findings also contain a larger uncertainty. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

scholarly journals The Response of Areal Snow Cover to Climate Change in a Snowmelt—Runoff Model

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rango
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Depletion Rate ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Runoff Model

The cryosphere is represented in some hydrological models by the arcal extent of snow cover, a variable that has been operationally available in recent years through remote sensing. In particular, the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) requires the remotely sensed snow-cover extent as a major input variable. The SRM is well-suited for simulating the hydrological response of a basin to hypothetical climate change because it is a non-calibrated model. In order to run the SRM in a climate-change mode, the response of the areal snow cover to a change in climate is critical, and must be calculated as a function of elevation, precipitation, temperature, and snow-water equivalent. For the snowmelt-runoff season, the effect of climate change on conditions in the winter months has a major influence. In a warmer climate, winter may experience more rain vs snow events, and more periods of winter snowmelt that reduce the snow water equivalent present in the basin at the beginning of spring snow melt. As a result, the spring snowmelt runoff under conditions of climate warming will be affected not only by different temperatures and precipitation, but also by a different snow cover with a changed depletion rate. A new radiation-based version of the SRM is under development that will also take changes in cloudiness and humidity into account, making climate-change studies of the cryosphere even more physically based.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 3631-3666 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Özdoğan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. This study investigates the effects of projected climate change on snow water availability in the Euphrates-Tigris basin using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model and a set of regional climate-change outputs from 13 global circulation models (GCMs) forced with two greenhouse gas emission scenarios for two time periods in the 21st century (2050 and 2090). The hydrologic model produces a reasonable simulation of seasonal and spatial variation in snow cover and associated snow water equivalent (SWE) in the mountainous areas of the basin, although its performance is poorer at marginal snow cover sites. While there is great variation across GCM outputs influencing snow water availability, the majority of models and scenarios suggest a significant decline (between 10 and 60 percent) in available snow water, particularly under the aggressive A2 climate change scenario and later in the 21st century. The changes in SWE are more stable when multi-model ensemble GCM outputs are used to minimize inter-model variability, suggesting a consistent and significant decrease in snow-covered areas and associated water availability in the headwaters of the Euphrates Tigris basin. Detailed analysis of future climatic conditions point to the combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as primary drivers of reduced snowpack. Results also indicate a more rapid decline in snow cover in the lower elevation zones than the higher areas in a changing climate. The simulated changes in snow water availability have important implications for the future of water resources and associated hydropower generation and land-use management and planning in a region already ripe for interstate water conflict. While the changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems or the interannual variability related to climate were not considered, the simulated changes in snow water availability presented here are likely to be indicative of climate change impacts on the water resources of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

scholarly journals Making rainfed crops adapted to potential climate change impacts: Modeling sustainable options

2020 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 03002
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Jamal Hallam ◽  
Fouad Moudden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Rainfed agriculture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This situation is expected to worsen under most future climate projections, which might increase the risks linked to food security and economies which depend on it. Providing insights about the potential responses of rainfed crops to climate change will helps on designing future adaptation strategies. In this study, large amount of data and the agro-hydrological model SWAT have been used to investigate future climate change impacts on rainfed wheat and sunflower crops in a semiarid watershed in Morocco (R’dom watershed). Downscaled CORDEX climate projections were used in generating future plants growth simulation for R’dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The main results of climate change scenarios highlighted that R’dom watershed will undergo significant decrease in water resources availability with more impact under the scenario RCP 8.5. Water productivities of both studied crops could be lower by up to -21% in comparison with baseline situation. Different sustainable management strategies have been simulated using SWAT model under climate change context. The adopted approach succeeded in building up sustainable management strategies toward secured food security in the future.

scholarly journals The response of areal snow cover to climate change in a snowmelt–runoff model

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 232-236
Author(s):  
A. Rango
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Spring Snowmelt

The cryosphere is represented in some hydrological models by the areal extent of snow cover, a variable that has been operationally available in recent years through remote sensing. In particular, the snowmelt–runoff model (SRM) requires the remotely sensed snow-cover extent as a major input variable. The SRM is well-suited for simulating the hydrological response of a basin to hypothetical climate change because it is a non-calibrated model. In order to run the SRM in a climate-change mode, the response of the areal snow cover to a change in climate is critical, and must be calculated as a function of elevation, precipitation, temperature, and snow-water equivalent. For the snowmelt-runoff season, the effect of climate change on conditions in the winter months has a major influence. In a warmer climate, winter may experience more rain vs snow events, and more periods of winter snowmelt that reduce the snow water equivalent present in the basin at the beginning of spring snowmelt. As a result, the spring snowmelt runoff under conditions of climate warming will be affected not only by different temperatures and precipitation, but also by a different snow cover with a changed depletion rate. A new radiation-based version of the SRM is under development that will also take changes in cloudiness and humidity into account, making climate-change studies of the cryosphere even more physically based.

scholarly journals Shifting Hydrological Processes in a Canadian Agroforested Catchment due to a Warmer and Wetter Climate

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 739
Author(s):  
Okan Aygün ◽  
Christophe Kinnard ◽  
Stéphane Campeau ◽  
Sebastian A. Krogh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Snow Transport

This study examines the hydrological sensitivity of an agroforested catchment to changes in temperature and precipitation. A physically based hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to simulate the hydrological processes over 23 years in the Acadie River Catchment in southern Québec. The observed air temperature and precipitation were perturbed linearly based on existing climate change projections, with warming of up to 8 °C and an increase in total precipitation up to 20%. The results show that warming causes a decrease in blowing snow transport and sublimation losses from blowing snow, canopy-intercepted snowfall and the snowpack. Decreasing blowing snow transport leads to reduced spatial variability in peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and a more synchronized snow cover depletion across the catchment. A 20% increase in precipitation is not sufficient to counteract the decline in annual peak SWE caused by a 1 °C warming. On the other hand, peak spring streamflow increases by 7% and occurs 20 days earlier with a 1 °C warming and a 20% increase in precipitation. However, when warming exceeds 1.5 °C, the catchment becomes more rainfall dominated and the peak flow and its timing follows the rainfall rather than snowmelt regime. Results from this study can be used for sustainable farming development and planning in regions with hydroclimatic characteristics similar to the Acadie River Catchment, where climate change may have a significant impact on the dominating hydrological processes.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2581-2597 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Sproles ◽  
A. W. Nolin ◽  
K. Rittger ◽  
T. H. Painter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Snow Cover Extent ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
Oregon Cascades

Abstract. This study investigates the effect of projected temperature increases on maritime mountain snowpack in the McKenzie River Basin (MRB; 3041 km2) in the Cascades Mountains of Oregon, USA. We simulated the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the MRB for the period of 1989–2009 with SnowModel, a spatially-distributed, process-based model (Liston and Elder, 2006b). Simulations were evaluated using point-based measurements of SWE, precipitation, and temperature that showed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients of 0.83, 0.97, and 0.80, respectively. Spatial accuracy was shown to be 82% using snow cover extent from the Landsat Thematic Mapper. The validated model then evaluated the inter- and intra-year sensitivity of basin wide snowpack to projected temperature increases (2 °C) and variability in precipitation (±10%). Results show that a 2 °C increase in temperature would shift the average date of peak snowpack 12 days earlier and decrease basin-wide volumetric snow water storage by 56%. Snowpack between the elevations of 1000 and 2000 m is the most sensitive to increases in temperature. Upper elevations were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Temperature increases are the primary driver of diminished snowpack accumulation, however variability in precipitation produce discernible changes in the timing and volumetric storage of snowpack. The results of this study are regionally relevant as melt water from the MRB's snowpack provides critical water supply for agriculture, ecosystems, and municipalities throughout the region especially in summer when water demand is high. While this research focused on one watershed, it serves as a case study examining the effects of climate change on maritime snow, which comprises 10% of the Earth's seasonal snow cover.

scholarly journals Health Vulnerabilities and Resilience to Climate Change: An Update of International Progress

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Mohd Arifuzzaman ◽  
M Mizanur Rahman ◽  
Md Sultan Ul Islam ◽  
Md Nezam Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Health Vulnerability ◽  
Climate Change And Health

Despite being one of the most important societal challenges of the 21st century, public engagement with climate change currently remains low worldwide. Mounting evidence from across the behavioral sciences has found that most people regard climate change as a non-urgent and psychologically distant risk—spatially, temporally, and socially-which has led to deferred public decision making about mitigation and adaptation responses. Climate change is increasing risks to human health and to the health systems that seek to protect the safety and well-being of populations. Health authorities require information about current associations between health outcomes and weather or climate, vulnerable populations, projections of future risks and adaptation opportunities in order to reduce exposures, empower individuals to take needed protective actions and build climate-resilient health systems. Health authorities from local to national levels badly seek this information by conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments. While assessments can provide valuable information to plan for climate change impacts, they are often not integrated into adaptation decision making, probably because the health sector is not involved in climate change policy-making processes at the national level. Significant barriers related to data accessibility, a limited number of climate and health models, uncertainty in climate projections, and a lack of funding and expertise, particularly in developing countries, challenge health authority efforts to conduct rigorous assessments and apply the findings. This paper reviews the evolution of climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments, including guidance developed from such projects, and implementation of the findings to support health adaptation action. The findings derived from the study will support collaborative efforts to protect health from current and future climate change hazards. Health authorities may benefit from additional resources to ensure that evidence about climate change impacts on health could effectively be translated into needed actions to build health resilience. Ibrahim Card Med J 2019; 9 (1&2): 80-92

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