scholarly journals Evaluation of trends in extreme temperatures simulated by HighResMIP models across Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2389-2412
Author(s):  
Antonello A. Squintu ◽  
Gerard van der Schrier ◽  
Else van den Besselaar ◽  
Eveline van der Linden ◽  
Dian Putrasahan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Summer Maximum ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

AbstractSimulation of past climate is an important tool for the validation of climate models. The comparison with observed daily values allows us to assess the reliability of their projections on climatic extremes in a future climate. The frequency and amplitude of extreme events are fundamental aspects that climate simulations need to reproduce as they have high impacts on economy and society. The ability to simulate them will help policy makers in taking better measures to face climate change. This work aims at evaluating how six models within the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project reproduce the trends on extreme indices as they have been observed over Europe in the 1970–2014 period. Observed values are provided by the new homogenized version of the E-OBS gridded dataset. The comparison is performed through the use of indices based on seasonal averages and on exceedances of percentile-based thresholds, focusing on six subregions. Winter-average minimum temperature is generally underestimated by models (down to − 4 °C difference over Italy and Norway) while simulated trends in seasonal averages and extreme values are found to be too cold on Eastern Europe and too warm on Iberia and Southern Europe (e.g. up to a difference of − 4% per decade on the number of Cold Nights over Spain). On the other hand the models tend to overestimate summer maximum temperatures averages in the Mediterranean Area (up to + 5 °C over the Balkans) and underestimate these at higher latitudes. Iberia, Southern and Eastern Europe are simulated with too low trends in average summer temperatures. The simulated trends are too strong on the North West part and too weak on the South East part of Europe (down to − 3%/decade on the number of Warm Days over Italy and Western Balkans). These results corroborate the findings of previous studies about the underestimation of the warming trends of summer temperatures in Southern Europe, where these are more intense and have more impacts. The high-resolution versions of the models are compared to their lower-resolution counterparts, similar to those used in the CMIP5, showing a slight improvement for the simulation of extreme winter minimum temperatures, while no significant progresses have been found for extreme summer maximum temperatures.

Evaluation of trends in extreme temperatures simulated by HighResMIP models across Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard van der Schrier ◽  
Antonello Squintu ◽  
Else van den Besselaar ◽  
Eveline van der Linden ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
North West ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The North ◽  
Summer Maximum ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

<p>The comparison of simulated climate with observed daily values allows to assess their reliability and the soundness of their projections on the climate of the future. Frequency and amplitude of extreme events are fundamental aspects that climate simulations need to reproduce. In this work six models developed within the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project are compared over Europe with the homogenized version of the observational E-OBS gridded dataset. This is done by comparing averages, extremes and trends of the simulated summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperatures with the observed ones.</p><p>Extreme values have been analyzed making use of indices based on the exceedances of percentile-based thresholds. Winter minimum temperatures are generally underestimated by models in their averages (down to -4 deg. C of difference over Italy and Norway) while simulated trends in averages and extreme values are found to be too warm on western Europe and too cold on eastern Europe (e.g. up to a difference of -4% per decade on the number of Cold Nights over Spain). On the other hand the models tend to underestimate summer maximum temperatures averages in Northern Europe and overestimate them in the Mediterranean areas (up to +5 deg. C over the Balkans). The simulated trends are too warm on the North West part and too cold on the South East part of Europe (down to -3%/dec. on the number of Warm Days over Italy and Western Balkans).</p><p>These results corroborate the findings of previous studies about the underestimation of the warming trends of summer temperatures in Southern Europe, where these are more intense and have more impacts.  A comparison of the high resolution models  with the corresponding version in CMIP5 has been performed comparing the absolute biases of extreme values trends. This has shown a slight improvement for the simulation of winter minimum temperatures, while no signs of significant progresses have been found for summer maximum temperatures.</p>

STUDYING THE HISTORY OF THE BALKANS / SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE: RESEARCH TASKS AND PROBLEM FORMULATION

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-21
Author(s):  
Sergei Romanenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Problem Formulation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Interstate Relations ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
European Culture ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
The Relationship

The new issue of the journal «Current Problems of Europe» opens with the problem-oriented article, dedicated to the analysis of the state of the Balkans / South-Eastern Europe region and its development in 2000-2020. The author gives a systemic description of the processes taking place in the intra-national and international intra-regional political, social and economic development of the countries of the region, and the problems generated by them. The changes are associated with a difficult transition phase, experienced by the states of the region, for the most part belonging to the post-socialist world (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo and Albania). The exceptions are Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, however, these three states are also going through a difficult period in their history, associated with new problems both in interstate relations within this triangle, and in relations with NATO and the EU, as well as with Russia. The article discusses the specifics of translating the terms «people» and «national» into Russian, as well as the toponym Kosovo (Serb.) / Kosova (Alb.), and ethnonyms «Bošnjak» and «bosanac». The first part of the issue contains articles devoted to general problems of regional studies: the relationship between the terms Eastern Europe, Central Europe, South-Eastern Europe, Balkans, Western Balkans; comparative and political science subjects; the role of the European Union and China in the development of the region; the relationship of national Serbian, post-Yugoslavian and European culture and intellectual heritage as well. The second part of the issue examines the relations of the Balkan states with the states of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Romania, Belarus), as well as the specifics of their development in the post-socialist period. Thus, there is the possibility of a multilateral - historical, political and cultural, as well as comparative analysis of the development of this complex region, which is of great importance for international relations worldwide.

Understanding differences in land-atmosphere interactions between pan-European convection-permitting and parametrised climate models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Halladay ◽  
Segolene Berthou ◽  
Elizabeth Kendon
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Land Cover Type ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Soil Hydraulics ◽  
Runoff Model

<p>Increasingly, we are using high-resolution convection-permitting models for climate projections but these models are less well understood in terms of the interaction between soil moisture, precipitation and evapotranspiration. The work was motivated by the discovery of warm, dry biases in summer in the 2.2 km convection-permitting model over France and eastern Europe compared to the 12 km convection-parametrised model that were associated with drier soils. We analyse several 12 km and 2.2 km versions of the Met Office Unified Model including sensitivity tests relating to soil hydraulics, land cover type and runoff model. We conduct similar tests using the land surface only to compare results between online and offline versions as the absence of some feedbacks can also produce differences.  </p>

THE BALKANS / SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE: THE REGION OF MYSTERY AND MYSTERIES OF THE REGION

2021 ◽  
pp. 22-58
Author(s):  
Sergei Romanenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Political Development ◽  
Self Awareness ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Forward Movement ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
South Eastern Europe

Based on the study of various types of sources and analysis of Russian and foreign literature, the author conceptually substantiates an approach to the study of the Balkan region / South-Eastern Europe. One of the main problems considered in the article is the change in the course of the history of the 19 th-21 st centuries the ratio of the concepts of «Balkans/South-Eastern Europe», «Eastern Europe», «Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe», «Western Balkans», «Western Balkan countries» and «European Western Balkans». The author characterizes various historical stages of the development of the region in the context of world wars and revolutions of the 20 th century, shows the specifics of political and ethnic processes, the internal political situation in each country and relations between the states of the region, the correlation between the processes of regionalization and globalization. With the disappearance of Eastern Europe in the form in which it existed in 1949-1991, after the anti-communist social and national revolutions in the former socialist countries of Europe in 1989-1992, an integral part of the process of national self-determination was the change in the regional self-identification of each people, society and state. If in the 2000 s, positive dynamics prevailed both in terms of internal political development, intraregional and global international relations, then in the 2010 s, the forward movement has stalled in terms of both the internal economic, social and political development of the states of the region, and the settlement of interethnic and interstate conflicts in the region against the background of a general aggravation of international relations. The article examines the role of regional identification and self-identification as elements of national self-awareness. The author also characterizes the challenges facing the countries of the region in the short, medium and long terms and indicates that the choice of the Balkans / South-Eastern Europe, despite the specificity caused by their historical fate, and all the difficulties of development and conflicts, has already been made: the Balkans (like Russia as well) is an integral part of Europe.

Prospects for the Balkans in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Domestic Instability

Subject Prospects for the Balkans in 2020. Significance Political malaise in South-eastern Europe will continue next year as EU enlargement (the West’s plan for stabilising the troubled Western Balkans) becomes an ever more remote prospect and the United States and Russia continue their ‘new Cold War’ in the region. These overarching developments will coincide with, and contribute to, a deepening domestic instability in much of the region.

scholarly journals SECURITY CHALLENGES IN SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

2013 ◽  
pp. 39-50
Author(s):  
ANTON BEBLER
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Former Yugoslavia ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Wars Of Religion ◽  
Interstate Relations ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
The Cold War

The purpose of this article is to identify the principal security challenges in South Eastern Europe. The mix of challenges has changed radically since the end of the Cold War and the wars in the former Yugoslavia, in favour of non-military threats. The era of wars of religion, ideology and redrawing of state borders in the Western Balkans seems to be over. The tranquillity in the region, imposed from the outside has been buttressed by two international protectorates. The suppression of armed violence did not add up to long-term stability as the underbrush of nationalism, in- tolerance and inter-communal hatred still survives in the Balkans. The potential for interethnic conflicts and for further fragmentation in the former Yugoslavia has not yet been fully exhausted in spite of much improved interstate relations. Prominent among the non-military threats to security are organized crime, corruption, natural and ecological disasters, climate change and weak energy security. The inclusion of the entire South Eastern Europe into Euro-Atlantic structures offers the best promise. There are thus good reasons for moderately optimistic expectation that the South Eastern Europe will eventually become a region of democracy, prosperity and stability.

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models

Explaining Peaceful Change in Central and Eastern Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Tabachnik ◽  
Benjamin Miller
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
The State ◽  
National Identities ◽  
Great Power ◽  
Soviet System ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Two Independent Variables

This chapter explains the process of peaceful change in Central and Eastern Europe following the demise of the Soviet system. It also explains the failure of peaceful change in the Balkans and some post-Soviet countries, such as the Ukrainian conflict in 2014. The chapter accounts for the conditions for peaceful change and for the variation between peaceful and violent change by the state-to-nation theory. The two independent variables suggested by the theory are the level of state capacity and congruence—namely the compatibility between state borders and the national identities of the countries at stake. Moreover, according to the theory, great-power engagement serves as an intervening variable and in some conditions, as explained in the chapter, may help with peaceful change.

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