scholarly journals Risk Management and Technology: Case Studies of Tsunami Evacuation Drills in Japan

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingying Sun ◽  
Katsuya Yamori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Semistructured Interview ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Single Person ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Evacuation Drills ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Kochi Prefecture

Evacuation drills have been developed as part of many risk management programs. However, very few studies have paid attention to the process of evacuation drills. This study employs action research to examine a tsunami risk management strategy called the single-person drill, and applies new technologies in presenting related outcomes presented as multiscreen movies. The drill targets vulnerable people (i.e., older adults), during which a single evacuee moves to a shelter with the aid of a Global Positioning System (GPS) device. Evacuation routes, destination, and duration were used as parameters in an agent-based evacuation simulation shown on movies. The drill has been conducted 58 times in a coastal community (Okitsu, Kochi Prefecture), and 59 multiscreen movies were produced. An analysis of the effectiveness of the drill and related movies was done by collecting both quantitative and qualitative data. Results showed that, with a total of 163 respondents of a semistructured interview, 70.0% of residents were familiar with the drill, and 22.0% wanted to try it. The drill helped elderly people to improve self-efficacy in tsunami risk management, and generated two-way risk communication between experts and participants. This paper contributes new insights into understanding the importance of technology in tsunami risk management.

scholarly journals Are current tsunami evacuation approaches safe enough?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
Flavia De Luca ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simplified Approach ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Evacuation Plan ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Destination Point

AbstractDeveloping an effective tsunami evacuation plan is essential for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. To develop effective tsunami evacuation plans, real transportation network, interaction among evacuees, and uncertainties associated with future tsunami events need to be considered in a holistic manner. This study aims to develop such an integrated tsunami evacuation approach using agent-based evacuation simulation and advanced stochastic tsunami hazard assessment. As a case study, a urban area in Padang, Indonesia, threatened by tsunamis from the Mentawai–Sunda subduction zone, is adopted. The uncertainty of the tsunami hazard is taken into account by generating 900 stochastic tsunami inundation maps for three earthquake magnitudes, i.e. 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0. A simplified evacuation approach considering the evacuees moving directly to evacuation areas (defined a priori) is compared with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches: (a) a two-destination-point tsunami evacuation plan developed by the local government and (b) a multiple-destination-point plan developed in this study. The improved agent-based stochastic tsunami evacuation framework with multiple destinations takes advantage of the extensive tsunami hazard analyses to define safe areas in a dynamic manner and is capable of capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk in coastal areas. In contrast, the results clearly show that the simplified approach significantly underestimates the evacuation time, and the existing tsunami evacuation routes identified by local authorities may be insufficient to save lives.

scholarly journals Simulation-Based and Risk-Informed Assessment of the Effectiveness of Tsunami Evacuation Routes Using Agent-Based Modeling: A Case Study of Seaside, Oregon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenqiang Wang ◽  
Gaofeng Jia
Keyword(s):  
Transportation Network ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Evacuation Risk ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
Evacuation Route

AbstractTypically, tsunami evacuation routes are marked using signs in the transportation network and the evacuation map is made to educate people on how to follow the evacuation route. However, tsunami evacuation routes are usually identified without the support of evacuation simulation, and the route effectiveness in the reduction of evacuation risk is typically unknown quantitatively. This study proposes a simulation-based and risk-informed framework for quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of evacuation routes in reducing evacuation risk. An agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation, which is then used in a simulation-based risk assessment framework to evaluate the evacuation risk. The route effectiveness in reducing the evacuation risk is evaluated by investigating how the evacuation risk varies with the proportion of the evacuees that use the evacuation route. The impacts of critical risk factors such as evacuation mode (for example, on foot or by car) and population size and distribution on the route effectiveness are also investigated. The evacuation risks under different cases are efficiently calculated using the augmented sample-based approach. The proposed approach is applied to the risk-informed evaluation of the route effectiveness for tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon. The evaluation results show that the route usage is overall effective in reducing the evacuation risk in the study area. The results can be used for evacuation preparedness education and hence effective evacuation.

scholarly journals Conceptual Design of Pedestrian Overpasses Bridge for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunami (POBET) in Padang City – West Sumatra

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Andi Syukri ◽  
Gusri Yaldi ◽  
Desmon Hamid ◽  
Lukman Murdiansyah ◽  
Aufaa Rozaan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
Systems Planning ◽  
The People ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Vertical Evacuation ◽  
Evacuation Drills ◽  
The Government ◽  
Evacuation Routes

Padang City, the most populated city in West Sumatra, is considered to have one of the world’s highest tsunami risks due to its high and close offshore thrust-fault seismic hazard, its flat terrain, and its dense population, which is mostly distributed along the coast. Current preparation for a tsunami in Padang focuses on developing early warning systems, planning evacuation routes, conducting evacuation drills, and educating the public about its tsunami risk. These are necessary, but insufficient, steps. The natural warning in Padang—strong earthquake shaking that lasts over a minute—will be the first and best indicator that a tsunami is likely to strike. It is estimated that even if evacuation begins immediately after the earthquake shaking stops, more than 100,000 inhabitants of Padang will be unable to reach high ground in less than 30 minutes—the expected time between the end of the earthquake shaking and the arrival of the tsunami wave at the shore. Based on Evaluation of Tsunami Evacuation Infrastructure for Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (Veronica, et.al: 2011) concluded, based upon extensive fieldwork, that Padang’s existing tsunami evacuation capacity is grossly inadequate, and that tsunami evacuation structures are essential to protect the people of Padang. To maximize their impact and effectiveness, those tsunami evacuation structures should be locally-appropriate, feasible to build and maintain, and easy to replicate. The M7.6 earthquake that struck Padang on September 30, 2009 confirmed this critical need for tsunami evacuation infrastructure. Although the earthquake did not generate a tsunami, it did cause the collapse of many buildings that had previously been identified as satisfactory evacuation structures. The earthquake also triggered massive traffic jams, stranding people in harm’s way and demonstrating why Padang needs structures that enable more people to evacuate-in-place. Finally, it needs to design new structures to accommodate people to evacuate immediately in place. Pedestrian Overpasses Bridge for Vertical Evacuation from Tsunami (POBET) will work effectively for evacuees who get traffic jam during the tsunami inundated elapsed critical hours. The most reason for POBET need to be design is a prototype for the government to combine pedestrian overpasses bridge with vertical evacuation from tsunami. These evacuation infrastructures consider about less for land use, easy to reach, compatible for any infrastructure purposes. Rely on budget and planning, POBET would design with a smallest amount budget and effortless construction process. It can be replicate by the local government to build in any place in Padang City.

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

scholarly journals The Point Bonitation Method and Its Adaptation in Risk Studies: A Case Study in Sri Lanka’s Cities in the Coastal Zone

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2060
Author(s):  
Dorota Rucińska ◽  
Martyna Zagrzejewska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Economic Geography ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Specific Result ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Tsunami Risk

Article proposes using weighting method named the Point Bonitation Method, a popular interdisciplinary method, especially in the tourism and socio-economic geography, for giving optional direction to further researching tsunami risk. This method qualifies and quantifies those factors that lead to natural disasters so that it is possible to make comparisons with their roles in disaster areas. This case study in Sri Lanka shows a specific result that is quantification of vulnerability by regions and can be used and developed locally for disaster risk management and reduction. This paper presents discussion about other possible reasons of high risk in regions.

Agent-based approach for crowded pedestrian evacuation simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianye Ben ◽  
Xifa Huang ◽  
Zhaoyi Zhuang ◽  
Rui Yan ◽  
Sen Xu
Keyword(s):  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation

Experimental Study of an Airplane Accident Evacuation/Rescue Simulation Using 3D Kinematic Digital Human Models

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takao Kakizaki ◽  
Jiro Urii ◽  
Mitsuru Endo
Keyword(s):  
Test Field ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Digital Human Models ◽  
Emergency Exit ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Evacuation Drills ◽  
Walking Speeds ◽  
Mass Evacuation ◽  
Digital Human

The 3D mass evacuation simulation of an airplane accident is experimentally verified. Evacuee motion has been experimentally investigated by building a test field that emulates the interior of an actual regional airliner with a capacity of approximately 100 passengers. The experiment results indicate that the evacuation time tends to be affected by the number of passengers and the evacuee guidance at the emergency exit. The results also indicate that any evacuation delay in exiting by individual passengers only slightly affects the total evacuation time because of evacuee congestion in the aisles. Moreover, the importance of evacuation guidance notification was investigated based on the evacuation-order variance. Finally, the experimental results were compared to the corresponding simulation results. Simulations using appropriate evacuee walking speeds can provide valid evacuation times, which are the most important factor in designing evacuation drills. Consequently, these results should be applied to existing 3D simulations using precise KDH models for more accurate mass evacuation/rescue simulations.

Simulation Model of Crowd Evacuation Navigation in a Multi-Obstacle Environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 036119812097126
Author(s):  
Zhongrui Ni ◽  
Zhen Liu ◽  
Tingting Liu ◽  
Yanjie Chai ◽  
Cuijuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Control Algorithms ◽  
Prototype System ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Crowd Management ◽  
Navigation Simulation ◽  
Local Navigation ◽  
Crowd Evacuation

The simulation of a crowd evacuating public buildings can be an important reference in planning the layout of buildings and formulating evacuation strategies. This paper proposes an agent-based crowd model; a crowd evacuation navigation simulation model is proposed for the multi-obstacle environment. We introduce the concept of navigation factor to describe the proximity of the navigation point to the exit. An algorithm for creating navigation points in multi-obstacle environment is proposed along with the global navigation and local navigation control algorithms of the crowd. We construct a crowd evacuation simulation prototype system with different simulation scenes using the scene editor. We conduct the crowd evacuation simulation experiment in the multi-obstacle scene, recording and analyzing the relevant experimental data. The simulation prototype system can be used to derive the evacuation time of the crowd and analyze the evacuation behavior of the crowd. It is expected to provide a visual deduction method for crowd management in an evacuation emergency.

Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Castro ◽  
Alan Poulos ◽  
Juan Carlos Herrera ◽  
Juan Carlos de la Llera
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Evacuation Routes ◽  
The Impact

Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.

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