scholarly journals Complementary methods to plan pedestrian evacuation of the French Riviera's beaches in case of tsunami threat: graph- and multi-agent-based modelling

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1735-1743 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sahal ◽  
F. Leone ◽  
M. Péroche

Abstract. Small amplitude tsunamis have impacted the French Mediterranean shore (French Riviera) in the past centuries. Some caused casualties; others only generated economic losses. While the North Atlantic and Mediterranean tsunami warning system is being tested and is almost operational, no awareness and preparedness measure is being implemented at a local scale. Evacuation is to be considered along the French Riviera, but no plan exists within communities. We show that various approaches can provide local stakeholders with evacuation capacities assessments to develop adapted evacuation plans through the case study of the Cannes–Antibes region. The complementarity between large- and small-scale approaches is demonstrated with the use of macro-simulators (graph-based) and micro-simulators (multi-agent-based) to select shelter points and choose evacuation routes for pedestrians located on the beach. The first one allows automatically selecting shelter points and measuring and mapping their accessibility. The second one shows potential congestion issues during pedestrian evacuations, and provides leads for the improvement of urban environment. Temporal accessibility to shelters is compared to potential local and distal tsunami travel times, showing a 40 min deficit for an adequate crisis management in the first scenario, and a 30 min surplus for the second one.

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Heidarzadeh ◽  
Yuchen Wang ◽  
Kenji Satake ◽  
Iyan E. Mulia

AbstractWestern Mediterranean Basin (WMB) is among tsunamigenic zones with numerous historical records of tsunami damage and deaths. Most recently, a moderate tsunami on 21 May 2003 offshore Algeria, North Africa, was a fresh call for strengthening tsunami warning capabilities in this enclosed water basin. Here, we propose to deploy offshore bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) and to adopt the framework of a tsunami data assimilation (TDA) approach for providing timely tsunami forecasts. We demonstrate the potential enhancement of the tsunami warning system through the case study of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Four scenarios of OBPG arrangements involving 10, 5, 3 and 2 gauges are considered. The offshore gauges are located at distances of 120–300 km from the North African coast. The warning lead times are 20, 30, 48 and 55 min for four points of interest considered in this study: Ibiza, Palma, Sant Antoni and Barcelona, respectively. The forecast accuracies are in the range of 69–85% for the four OBPG scenarios revealing acceptable accuracies for tsunami warnings. We conclude that installation of OBPGs in the WMB can be helpful for providing successful and timely tsunami forecasts. We note that the OBPG scenarios proposed in this study are applicable only for the case of the 2003 Algeria tsunami. Further studies including sensitivity analyses (e.g., number of OBPG stations; earthquake magnitude, strike, epicenter) are required in order to determine OBPG arrangements that could be useful for various earthquake scenarios in the WMB.


Author(s):  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
Flavia De Luca ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
...  

AbstractDeveloping an effective tsunami evacuation plan is essential for disaster risk reduction in coastal regions. To develop effective tsunami evacuation plans, real transportation network, interaction among evacuees, and uncertainties associated with future tsunami events need to be considered in a holistic manner. This study aims to develop such an integrated tsunami evacuation approach using agent-based evacuation simulation and advanced stochastic tsunami hazard assessment. As a case study, a urban area in Padang, Indonesia, threatened by tsunamis from the Mentawai–Sunda subduction zone, is adopted. The uncertainty of the tsunami hazard is taken into account by generating 900 stochastic tsunami inundation maps for three earthquake magnitudes, i.e. 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0. A simplified evacuation approach considering the evacuees moving directly to evacuation areas (defined a priori) is compared with two more rigorous agent-based modeling approaches: (a) a two-destination-point tsunami evacuation plan developed by the local government and (b) a multiple-destination-point plan developed in this study. The improved agent-based stochastic tsunami evacuation framework with multiple destinations takes advantage of the extensive tsunami hazard analyses to define safe areas in a dynamic manner and is capable of capturing the uncertainty of future tsunami risk in coastal areas. In contrast, the results clearly show that the simplified approach significantly underestimates the evacuation time, and the existing tsunami evacuation routes identified by local authorities may be insufficient to save lives.


2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1100 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.A. Papadopoulos ◽  
G.A. Tselentis ◽  
M. Charalampakis ◽  
All the scientific staff of the Institut All the scientific staff of the Institute of Geodynamics1

The Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC), which is a unit of the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA-IG), was officially established in Greece by law in September 2010. It operates a 24/7 tsunami monitoring service for Greece and the eastern Mediterranean Sea, providing warning messages to the General Secretariat for Civil Protection in Greece. Since August 2012, HL-NTWC acts as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO providing tsunami messages to a large number of subscribers. The HL-NTWC function is based on the national seismograph and tide gauge networks of NOA-IG and incorporates several data bases, algorithms and computational tools. Collaboration with top class research institutions in the framework of important EC funded tsunami research projects strengthens the scientific background of the center. Tests, exercises and training of the duty officers involved in the 24/7 operation of the HL-NTWC are carried on constantly, in order to maintain a high level of readiness and response in case of emergency. In its operational life since August 2012 the HL-NTWC has timely issued tsunami warning messages for 14 potentially tsunamigenic earthquake events.


2016 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Michelini ◽  
Lucia Margheriti ◽  
Marco Cattaneo ◽  
Gianpaolo Cecere ◽  
Giuseppe D'Anna ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) is an Italian research institution, with focus on Earth Sciences. INGV runs the Italian National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale, RSN) and other networks at national scale for monitoring earthquakes and tsunami as a part of the National Civil Protection System coordinated by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (Dipartimento di Protezione Civile, DPC). RSN is composed of about 400 stations, mainly broadband, installed in the Country and in the surrounding regions; about 110 stations feature also co-located strong motion instruments, and about 180 have GPS receivers and belong to the National GPS network (Rete Integrata Nazionale GPS, RING). The data acquisition system was designed to accomplish, in near-real-time, automatic earthquake detection, hypocenter and magnitude determination, moment tensors, shake maps and other products of interest for DPC. Database archiving of all parametric results are closely linked to the existing procedures of the INGV seismic monitoring environment and surveillance procedures. INGV is one of the primary nodes of ORFEUS (Observatories & Research Facilities for European Seismology) EIDA (European Integrated Data Archive) for the archiving and distribution of continuous, quality checked seismic data. The strong motion network data are archived and distributed both in EIDA and in event based archives; GPS data, from the RING network are also archived, analyzed and distributed at INGV. Overall, the Italian earthquake surveillance service provides, in quasi real-time, hypocenter parameters to the DPC. These are then revised routinely by the analysts of the Italian Seismic Bulletin (Bollettino Sismico Italiano, BSI). The results are published on the web, these are available to both the scientific community and the general public. The INGV surveillance includes a pre-operational tsunami alert service since INGV is one of the Tsunami Service providers of the North-eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami warning System (NEAMTWS).


2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (sp) ◽  
pp. 719-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiyuki Yoshida ◽  
◽  
Takeshi Kimura ◽  
Yoshikazu Minegishi ◽  
Tomonori Sano ◽  
...  

Tsunami evacuation plans have been deliberately developed by local governments in coastal areas in Japan under guidance from the national government since before the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. These plans, however, do not mention the time required for all local residents to evacuate to evacuation areas. This paper reports a procedure to design an effective tsunami safe town planning using multi-agent simulator (MAS) which identify a degree of evacuation risk in objective area. A case study is applied to one of the worst hit town of tsunami, in which additional facilities such as evacuation areas, safe buildings, and evacuation routes are proposed as well.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 3297-3309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Lavaysse ◽  
Jürgen Vogt ◽  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Marco L. Carrera ◽  
Florian Pappenberger

Abstract. An early warning system for drought events can provide valuable information for decision makers dealing with water resources management and international aid. However, predicting such extreme events is still a big challenge. In this study, we compare two approaches for drought predictions based on forecasted precipitation derived from the Ensemble extended forecast model (ENS) of the ECMWF, and on forecasted monthly occurrence anomalies of weather regimes (MOAWRs), also derived from the ECMWF model. Results show that the MOAWRs approach outperforms the one based on forecasted precipitation in winter in the north-eastern parts of the European continent, where more than 65 % of droughts are detected 1 month in advance. The approach based on forecasted precipitation achieves better performance in predicting drought events in central and eastern Europe in both spring and summer, when the local atmospheric forcing could be the key driver of the precipitation. Sensitivity tests also reveal the challenges in predicting small-scale droughts and drought onsets at longer lead times. Finally, the results show that the ENS model of the ECMWF successfully represents most of the observed linkages between large-scale atmospheric patterns, depicted by the weather regimes and drought events over Europe.


1951 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-141
Author(s):  
L. Don Leet ◽  
Daniel Linehan ◽  
Philip R. Berger

Abstract In the bulletin of the Harvard Seismograph Station, under date of September 15, 1935, attention was directed to the unusual character of certain records from the vicinity of 17° N, 62° W. One of the novel features was a short-period phase about 23 minutes after P. It has become known as T, for third, with P and S constituting the first and second groups of short-period waves of similar general appearance. The problem was discussed with Weston, and since that time those two stations have been working on it. Linehan published in 1940 the first description outside station bulletins. From detailed studies of more than 250 earthquakes, with all records from Harvard and Weston and selected ones from Fordham, Ottawa, and Tucson, the following results have been obtained. The T phase ranges in period from 0.5 to 1.0 sec. It originates under the ocean and is characteristic of oceanic areas. It is generated by earthquakes of which the majority are between about 40 and 100 km. in depth. It clearly is not limited to shallow foci. It has been observed at Harvard and Weston from distances between 1,060 and 7,000 km.; from foci north of the Greater Antilles, near Bermuda, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the North Atlantic, and south of the equator; originating under water ranging down to 3,000 fathoms in depth. It consists primarily of shear waves, with a velocity of between 1.6 and 2.7 km/sec. over oceanic paths and 2.1 km/sec. over land. (The velocity of sound in water of the Atlantic Ocean is from 1.46 to 1.53 km/sec.). It is suggested that the T phase may be short-period shear waves traveling in ocean-bottom sediments and the top continental layer. An overwhelming preponderance of the evidence contradicts any hypothesis that significant amounts of the energy are water-borne. A progressively changing angle of approach for waves in different parts of the T phase has been observed at Harvard and Weston. In 1949, the Columbia University group composed of Ewing, Press, and Tolstoy, under a government contract, printed two reports on this subject, “The T phase of Shallow-Focus Submarine Earthquakes,” and “Proposed Tsunami Warning System.” The former was based largely on 20 Weston records which were included without discussion of the investigation or its results with either Weston or Harvard. They decided that “the T phase is characterized by periods of 0.5 sec. or less, a velocity identical with that of sound in water for the part of its path crossing deep water and by speeds from 12,000 to 18,000 ft/sec. (3.7 to 5.5 km/sec.) across shallow water or land,” and that “propagation through the sound channel accounts for the major part of the observed T phase.” In checking their report against the original Weston records, we find that they have made elementary errors, such as misreading iP from −16 to +18 sec., and incorrectly computing epicentral distance by more than a degree. These and many others so greatly affect the fundamental solution of the problem that their conclusions cannot be accepted. This aspect will be discussed in a separate paper.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 11247
Author(s):  
Öcal Necmioğlu ◽  
Fatih Turhan ◽  
Ceren Özer Sözdinler ◽  
Mehmet Yılmazer ◽  
Yavuz Güneş ◽  
...  

A tsunami warning system providing services in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)—Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAMTWS) framework was established in Turkey by the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) (Özel et al., 2011). KOERI’s Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring Center (RETMC) was established on the foundations of the legacy KOERI National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) by adding observation, analysis and operational capability related to tsunami early warnings after an extensive preparatory period during 2009 and 2011. The center initiated its test-mode 7/24 operational status as a national tsunami warning center in 2011, and after a one year period it became operational as a candidate tsunami warning center for NEAMTWS on 1 July 2012, together with CENALT (Centre d’Alerte aux Tsunamis—France) and followed by the NOA (National Observatory of Athens—Greece) on 28 August 2012, INGV (Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia—Italy) on 1 October 2014 and IPMA (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera—Portugal) on 1 February 2018, completing full coverage of the tsunami-prone regions monitored by NEAMTWS. In this paper, an overview of the progress and continuous improvement of KOERI’s tsunami early warning system will be presented, together with lessons learned from important tsunamigenic events, such as the 20 July 2017 Bodrum–Kos Mw 6.6 and 30 October 2020 Samos–Izmir Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Gaps preventing the completion of an effective tsunami warning cycle and areas for future improvement are also addressed.


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