scholarly journals Hydropower production prediction using artificial neural networks: an Ecuadorian application case

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Barzola-Monteses ◽  
Juan Gómez-Romero ◽  
Mayken Espinoza-Andaluz ◽  
Waldo Fajardo
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
One Step ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

AbstractHydropower is among the most efficient technologies to produce renewable electrical energy. Hydropower systems present multiple advantages since they provide sustainable and controllable energy. However, hydropower plants’ effectiveness is affected by multiple factors such as river/reservoir inflows, temperature, electricity price, among others. The mentioned factors make the prediction and recommendation of a station’s operational output a difficult challenge. Therefore, reliable and accurate energy production forecasts are vital and of great importance for capacity planning, scheduling, and power systems operation. This research aims to develop and apply artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict hydroelectric production in Ecuador’s short and medium term, considering historical data such as hydropower production and precipitations. For this purpose, two scenarios based on the prediction horizon have been considered, i.e., one-step and multi-step forecasted problems. Sixteen ANN structures based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) LSTM were designed. More than 3000 models were configured, trained, and validated using a grid search algorithm based on hyperparameters. The results show that the MLP univariate and differentiated model of one-step scenario outperforms the other architectures analyzed in both scenarios. The obtained model can be an important tool for energy planning and decision-making for sustainable hydropower production.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Networks, Sequence-to-Sequence LSTMs, and Exogenous Variables as Analytical Tools for NO2 (Air Pollution) Forecasting: A Case Study in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain)

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1770
Author(s):  
Javier González-Enrique ◽  
Juan Jesús Ruiz-Aguilar ◽  
José Antonio Moscoso-López ◽  
Daniel Urda ◽  
Lipika Deka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Analytical Tools

This study aims to produce accurate predictions of the NO2 concentrations at a specific station of a monitoring network located in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain). Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) were used to create the forecasting models. Additionally, a new prediction method was proposed combining LSTMs using a rolling window scheme with a cross-validation procedure for time series (LSTM-CVT). Two different strategies were followed regarding the input variables: using NO2 from the station or employing NO2 and other pollutants data from any station of the network plus meteorological variables. The ANN and LSTM-CVT exogenous models used lagged datasets of different window sizes. Several feature ranking methods were used to select the top lagged variables and include them in the final exogenous datasets. Prediction horizons of t + 1, t + 4 and t + 8 were employed. The exogenous variables inclusion enhanced the model’s performance, especially for t + 4 (ρ ≈ 0.68 to ρ ≈ 0.74) and t + 8 (ρ ≈ 0.59 to ρ ≈ 0.66). The proposed LSTM-CVT method delivered promising results as the best performing models per prediction horizon employed this new methodology. Additionally, per each parameter combination, it obtained lower error values than ANNs in 85% of the cases.

Development of Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Quantifying Energy Saving using Measurement and Verification

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Wan n Nazirah Wan Md Adna ◽  
Nofri Yenita Dahlan ◽  
Ismail Musirin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Operating Time ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Measurement And Verification ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Hybrid Artificial Neural Network

This paper presents a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network (HANN) for chiller system Measurement and Verification (M&V) model development. In this work, hybridization of Evolutionary Programming (EP) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are considered in modeling the baseline electrical energy consumption for a chiller system hence quantifying saving. EP with coefficient of correlation (R) objective function is used in optimizing the neural network training process and selecting the optimal values of ANN initial weights and biases. Three inputs that are affecting energy use of the chiller system are selected; 1) operating time, 2) refrigerant tonnage and 3) differential temperature. The output is hourly energy use of building air-conditioning system. The HANN model is simulated with 16 different structures and the results reveal that all HANN structures produce higher prediction performance with R is above 0.977. The best structure with the highest value of R is selected as the baseline model hence is used to determine the saving. The avoided energy calculated from this model is 132944.59 kWh that contributes to 1.38% of saving percentage.

scholarly journals The Analysis of Performace Model Tiered Artificial Neural Network for Assessment of Coronary Heart Disease

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 2183
Author(s):  
Wiharto Wiharto ◽  
Harianto Herianto ◽  
Hari Kusnanto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Marquardt Algorithm ◽  
One Step ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

<p>The assessment model of coronary heart disease is so much developed in line with the development of information technology, particularly the field of artificial intelligence. Unfortunately, the assessment models developed mostly do not use such an approach made by the clinician, the tiered approach. This study aims to analyze the performance of a tiered model assessment. The method used for each level is, preprocessing, building architecture artificial neural network (ANN), conduct training using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and one step secant, as well as testing the system. The study is divided into the terms of the stages in the examination procedure. The test results showed the influence of each level, both when the output level of the previous positive or negative, were tested back at the next level. The performance evaluation may indicate that the top level provides performance improvement and or reinforce the previous level. </p>

scholarly journals Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasios Anagnostis ◽  
Elpiniki Papageorgiou ◽  
Dionysis Bochtis
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Qualitative Variables ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Network Approaches

The present research study explores three types of neural network approaches for forecasting natural gas consumption in fifteen cities throughout Greece; a simple perceptron artificial neural network (ANN), a state-of-the-art Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and the proposed deep neural network (DNN). In this research paper, a DNN implementation is proposed where variables related to social aspects are introduced as inputs. These qualitative factors along with a deeper, more complex architecture are utilized for improving the forecasting ability of the proposed approach. A comparative analysis is conducted between the proposed DNN, the simple ANN, and the advantageous LSTM, with the results offering a deeper understanding the characteristics of Greek cities and the habitual patterns of their residents. The proposed implementation shows efficacy on forecasting daily values of energy consumption for up to four years. For the evaluation of the proposed approach, a real-life dataset for natural gas prediction was used. A detailed discussion is provided on the performance of the implemented approaches, the ANN and the LSTM, that are characterized as particularly accurate and effective in the literature, and the proposed DNN with the inclusion of the qualitative variables that govern human behavior, which outperforms them.

Evaluation of the Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Solar Energy

2021 ◽  
pp. 182-210
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Solar Insolation ◽  
Pv Panel ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Artificial neural network (ANN) is initially used to forecast the solar insolation level and followed by the particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to optimise the power generation of the PV system based on the solar insolation level, cell temperature, efficiency of PV panel, and output voltage requirements. Genetic algorithm is a general-purpose optimization algorithm that is distinguished from conventional optimization techniques by the use of concepts of population genetics to guide the optimization search. Tabu search algorithm is a conceptually simple and an elegant iterative technique for finding good solutions to optimization problems. Simulated annealing algorithms appeared as a promising heuristic algorithm for handling the combinatorial optimization problems. Fuzzy logic algorithms set theory can be considered as a generation of the classical set theory. The artificial neural network (ANN)-based solar insolation forecast has shown satisfactory results with minimal error, and the generated PV power can be optimised significantly with the aids of the PSO algorithm.

RF MEMS for Reconfigurable Antenna Using Gravitational Search Optimization and Artificial Neural Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (08) ◽  
pp. 1850132
Author(s):  
T. A. Balarajuswamy ◽  
R. Nakkeeran
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Rf Mems ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Gravitational Search Algorithm ◽  
Beam Width ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Gravitational Search ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

The projected method explains about the problems occurred in the combination of the MEMS switches and the complete scheme plan is resolved through choosing the finest devise limits for the plan. The devise limits, namely, length of beam, width of beam, torsion arm length, switch thickness, holes and gap were measured. At this point, the finest value of the devise limit is forecast by the aid of artificial neural network (ANN). Furthermore, the method contains the optimization method of Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) to optimize the input signal and so dropping the Mean Square Error (MSE). The complete scheme is executed in the operational platform of MATLAB and the outcomes were examined.

scholarly journals Application of an Artificial Neural Network for Measurements of Synchrophasor Indicators in the Power System

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2570
Author(s):  
Malgorzata Binek ◽  
Andrzej Kanicki ◽  
Pawel Rozga
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Magnitude Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Basic Function ◽  
Filter Method ◽  
Zero Crossing ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Dynamic phenomena in electric power systems require fast and accurate algorithms for processing signals. The processing results include synchrophasor parameters, e.g., varying amplitude, phase or frequency of sinusoidal voltage or current signals. This paper presents a novel estimation method of synchrophasor parameters that comply with the requirements of IEEE/IEC standards. The authors analyzed an algorithm for measuring the phasor magnitude by means of a selected artificial neural network (ANN), an algorithm for estimating the phasor phase and frequency that makes use of the zero-crossing method. The original components of the presented approach are: the method of the synchrophasor magnitude estimation by means of a suitably trained and applied radial basic function (RBF); the idea of using two algorithms operating simultaneously to estimate the synchrophasor magnitude, phase and frequency that apply identical calculation methods are different in that the first one filters the input signal using the FIR filter and the second one operates without any filter; and the algorithm calculating corrections of the phase shift between the input and output signal and the algorithm calculating corrections of the magnitude estimation. The error results obtained from the applied algorithms were compared with those of the quadrature filter method and the ones presented in literature, as well as with the permissible values of the errors. In all cases, these results were lower than the permissible values and at least equal to the values found in the literature.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Networks in MPPT Algorithms for Optimization of Photovoltaic Power Systems: A Review

Micromachines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1260
Author(s):  
César G. Villegas-Mier ◽  
Juvenal Rodriguez-Resendiz ◽  
José M. Álvarez-Alvarado ◽  
Hugo Rodriguez-Resendiz ◽  
Ana Marcela Herrera-Navarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Maximum Power ◽  
Maximum Power Point ◽  
Point Tracking ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Low Efficiency ◽  
Power Point

The use of photovoltaic systems for clean electrical energy has increased. However, due to their low efficiency, researchers have looked for ways to increase their effectiveness and improve their efficiency. The Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) inverters allow us to maximize the extraction of as much energy as possible from PV panels, and they require algorithms to extract the Maximum Power Point (MPP). Several intelligent algorithms show acceptable performance; however, few consider using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). These have the advantage of giving a fast and accurate tracking of the MPP. The controller effectiveness depends on the algorithm used in the hidden layer and how well the neural network has been trained. Articles over the last six years were studied. A review of different papers, reports, and other documents using ANN for MPPT control is presented. The algorithms are based on ANN or in a hybrid combination with FL or a metaheuristic algorithm. ANN MPPT algorithms deliver an average performance of 98% in uniform conditions, exhibit a faster convergence speed, and have fewer oscillations around the MPP, according to this research.

scholarly journals Application of artificial neural network in sizing a stand-alone photovoltaic system: a review

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Fateh Mohamad Nor ◽  
Suriana Salimin ◽  
Mohd Noor Abdullah ◽  
Muhammad Nafis Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Design Tool ◽  
Photovoltaic System ◽  
Pv System ◽  
System A ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

<span>Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques are becoming useful in the current era due to the vast development of the current computer technologies. ANN has been used in various fields especially in the field of science and technology. One of the advantage that makes ANN so interesting is the ANN’s ability to learn the input and output relationship even though the relationship is non-linear. In addition, ANN is also useful for modelling, optimization, prediction, forecasting, and controlling systems. The main objective of this paper is to present a review of the ANN techniques for sizing a stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) system. The review in this paper shows the potential of ANN as a design tool for a stand-alone PV. In addition, ANN is very useful to improve the sizing process of the stand-alone PV system. The sizing process is of paramount importance to a stand-alone PV system in order to make sure the system can generate ample electrical energy to supply the load demand.</span>

Artificial Neural Network for Non-Intrusive Electrical Energy Monitoring System

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Khairell Khazin Kaman ◽  
Mahdi Faramarzi ◽  
Sallehuddin Ibrahim ◽  
Mohd Amri Md Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Energy Monitoring ◽  
Training Time ◽  
Energy Meter ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Hidden Neurons ◽  
Electrical Consumption

<p> This paper discusses non-intrusive electrical energy monitoring (NIEM) system in an effort to minimize electrical energy wastages. To realize the system, an energy meter is used to measure the electrical consumption by electrical appliances. The obtained data were analyzed using a method called multilayer perceptron (MLP) technique of artificial neural network (ANN). The event detection was implemented to identify the type of loads and the power consumption of the load which were identified as fan and lamp. The switching ON and OFF output events of the loads were inputted to MLP in order to test the capability of MLP in classifying the type of loads. The data were divided to 70% for training, 15% for testing, and 15% for validation. The output of the MLP is either ‘1’ for fan or ‘0’ for lamp. In conclusion, MLP with five hidden neurons results obtained the lowest average training time with 2.699 seconds, a small number of epochs with 62 iterations, a min square error of 7.3872×10-5, and a high regression coefficient of 0.99050.</p>

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