Climate change impacts on the distribution and diversity of major tree species in the temperate forests of Northern Iran

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2711-2728
Author(s):  
Hamid Taleshi ◽  
Seyed Gholamali Jalali ◽  
Seyed Jalil Alavi ◽  
Seyed Mohsen Hosseini ◽  
Babak Naimi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Temperate Forests ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Northern Iran

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on the Future of Forests in Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Yu ◽  
Pam Berry ◽  
Benoit P. Guillod ◽  
Thomas Hickler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Physiological Effects ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Mean

Forests provide important ecosystem services but are being affected by climate change, not only changes in temperature and precipitation but potentially also directly through the plant-physiological effects of increases in atmospheric CO2. We applied a tree-species-based dynamic model (LPJ-GUESS) at a high 5-km spatial resolution to project climate and CO2 impacts on tree species and thus forests in Great Britain. Climatic inputs consisted of a novel large climate scenario ensemble derived from a regional climate model (RCM) under an RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The climate change impacts were assessed using leaf area index (LAI) and net primary productivity (NPP) for the 2030s and the 2080s compared to baseline (1975–2004). The potential CO2 effects, which are highly uncertain, were examined using a constant CO2 level scenario for comparison. Also, a climate vulnerability index was developed to assess the potential drought impact on modeled tree species. In spite of substantial future reductions in rainfall, the mean projected LAI and NPP generally showed an increase over Britain, with a larger increment in Scotland, northwest England, and west Wales. The CO2 increase led to higher projected LAI and NPP, especially in northern Britain, but with little effect on overall geographical patterns. However, without accounting for plant-physiological effects of elevated CO2, NPP in Southern and Central Britain and easternmost parts of Wales showed a decrease relative to 2011, implying less ecosystem service provisioning, e.g., in terms of timber yields and carbon storage. The projected change of LAI and NPP varied from 5 to 100% of the mean change, due to the uncertainty arising from natural weather-induced variability, with Southeast England being most sensitive to this. It was also the most susceptible to climate change and drought, with reduced suitability for broad-leaved trees such as beech, small-leaved lime, and hornbeam. These could lead to important changes in woodland composition across Great Britain.

Climate change in the Missouri central hardwood region : consequences for forest landscapes, and management strategies

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jeffrey Eric Schneiderman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Timber Harvest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
The Impact

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] Climate change may result in a change in the tree species present within forests. The Missouri Central Hardwood Region represents one area where these changes may occur. Due to the natural diversity of species and economic value of this area, it is beneficial to understand how climate change might affect trees currently present. Computer models (a human creation to help understand real world systems in a simplified manner) can be used to study the impact of climate change on forests. My objectives were to 1) understand how different forest impact models studying climate change compared to each other, 2) determine whether climate change or current timber harvest practices was more likely to change the characteristics of the forest, and 3) analyze land management alternatives to determine which was best at creating beneficial qualities for forests under climate change. For my first objective, I used a species distribution model and a process model, two models that use different analysis approaches, to assess climate change impacts on tree species, and compared the results. On a broad level, both models agreed, but when looking at the study area at smaller resolution, the models did not agree as well. For my second objective, I coupled a process model and forest landscape model. Although results showed there was variation based on species regarding whether climate or harvest had the greater impact, both usually had significant impacts on tree species. Results for my third objective indicated that multiple management approaches are necessary to manage future forests in a beneficial manner. My results have implications for future forest sustainability. Uncertainty exists regarding climate change's full impact, but with proper forest management and research these challenges can be reduced.

scholarly journals Interpreting common garden studies to understand cueing mechanisms of spring leafing phenology in temperate and boreal tree species

Silva Fennica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Salk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Common Garden ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Critical Photoperiod ◽  
Leafing Phenology

Trees are particularly susceptible to climate change due to their long lives and slow dispersal. However, trees can adjust the timing of their growing season in response to weather conditions without evolutionary change or long-distance migration. This makes understanding phenological cueing mechanisms a critical task to forecast climate change impacts on forests. Because of slow data accumulation, unconventional and repurposed information is valuable in the study of phenology. Here, I develop and use a framework to interpret what phenological patterns among provenances of a species in a common garden reveal about their leafing cues, and potential climate change responses. Species whose high elevation/latitude provenances leaf first likely have little chilling requirement, or for latitude gradients only, a critical photoperiod cue met relatively early in the season. Species with low latitude/elevation origins leafing first have stronger controls against premature leafing; I argue that these species are likely less phenologically flexible in responding to climate change. Among published studies, the low to high order is predominant among frost-sensitive ring-porous species. Narrow-xylemed species show nearly all possible patterns, sometimes with strong contrasts even within genera for both conifers and angiosperms. Some also show complex patterns, indicating multiple mechanisms at work, and a few are largely undifferentiated across broad latitude gradients, suggesting phenotypic plasticity to a warmer climate. These results provide valuable evidence on which temperate and boreal tree species are most likely to adjust in place to climate change, and provide a framework for interpreting historic or newly-planted common garden studies of phenology.

scholarly journals Climate change intensification of herbivore impacts on tree recruitment

2011 ◽  
Vol 279 (1732) ◽  
pp. 1366-1370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jedediah Brodie ◽  
Eric Post ◽  
Fred Watson ◽  
Joel Berger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Populus Tremuloides ◽  
Cervus Elaphus ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ecological Communities ◽  
Generalist Herbivore ◽  
Plant Persistence

Altered species interactions are difficult to predict and yet may drive the response of ecological communities to climate change. We show that declining snowpack strengthens the impacts of a generalist herbivore, elk ( Cervus elaphus ), on a common tree species. Thick snowpack substantially reduces elk visitation to sites; aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) shoots in these areas experience lower browsing rates, higher survival and enhanced recruitment. Aspen inside herbivore exclosures have greatly increased recruitment, particularly at sites with thick snowpack. We suggest that long-term decreases in snowpack could help explain a widespread decline of aspen through previously unconsidered relationships. More generally, reduced snowpack across the Rocky Mountains, combined with rising elk populations, may remove the conditions needed for recruitment of this ecologically important tree species. These results highlight that herbivore behavioural responses to altered abiotic conditions are critical determinants of plant persistence. Predictions of climate change impacts must not overlook the crucial importance of species interactions.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Iverson ◽  
Matthew Peters ◽  
Anantha Prasad ◽  
Stephen Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Forests across the globe are faced with a rapidly changing climate and an enhanced understanding of how these changing conditions may impact these vital resources is needed. Our approach is to use DISTRIB-II, an updated version of the Random Forest DISTRIB model, to model 125 tree species individually from the eastern United States to quantify potential current and future habitat responses under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 -high emissions which is our current trajectory and RCP 4.5 -lower emissions by implementing energy conservation) and three climate models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. On average, of the 125 species, approximately 88 species would gain and 26 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat. The projected change in the center of gravity for each species distribution (i.e., mean center) between current and future habitat moves generally northeast, with 81 species habitat centers potentially moving over 100 km under RCP 8.5. Collectively, our results suggest that many species will experience less pressure in tracking their suitable habitats under a path of lower greenhouse gas emissions.

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