scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Iverson ◽  
Matthew Peters ◽  
Anantha Prasad ◽  
Stephen Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Forests across the globe are faced with a rapidly changing climate and an enhanced understanding of how these changing conditions may impact these vital resources is needed. Our approach is to use DISTRIB-II, an updated version of the Random Forest DISTRIB model, to model 125 tree species individually from the eastern United States to quantify potential current and future habitat responses under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 -high emissions which is our current trajectory and RCP 4.5 -lower emissions by implementing energy conservation) and three climate models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. On average, of the 125 species, approximately 88 species would gain and 26 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat. The projected change in the center of gravity for each species distribution (i.e., mean center) between current and future habitat moves generally northeast, with 81 species habitat centers potentially moving over 100 km under RCP 8.5. Collectively, our results suggest that many species will experience less pressure in tracking their suitable habitats under a path of lower greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Anantha M. Prasad ◽  
Matthew P. Peters ◽  
Stephen N. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Suitable Habitats

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on the Future of Forests in Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Yu ◽  
Pam Berry ◽  
Benoit P. Guillod ◽  
Thomas Hickler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Physiological Effects ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Mean

Forests provide important ecosystem services but are being affected by climate change, not only changes in temperature and precipitation but potentially also directly through the plant-physiological effects of increases in atmospheric CO2. We applied a tree-species-based dynamic model (LPJ-GUESS) at a high 5-km spatial resolution to project climate and CO2 impacts on tree species and thus forests in Great Britain. Climatic inputs consisted of a novel large climate scenario ensemble derived from a regional climate model (RCM) under an RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The climate change impacts were assessed using leaf area index (LAI) and net primary productivity (NPP) for the 2030s and the 2080s compared to baseline (1975–2004). The potential CO2 effects, which are highly uncertain, were examined using a constant CO2 level scenario for comparison. Also, a climate vulnerability index was developed to assess the potential drought impact on modeled tree species. In spite of substantial future reductions in rainfall, the mean projected LAI and NPP generally showed an increase over Britain, with a larger increment in Scotland, northwest England, and west Wales. The CO2 increase led to higher projected LAI and NPP, especially in northern Britain, but with little effect on overall geographical patterns. However, without accounting for plant-physiological effects of elevated CO2, NPP in Southern and Central Britain and easternmost parts of Wales showed a decrease relative to 2011, implying less ecosystem service provisioning, e.g., in terms of timber yields and carbon storage. The projected change of LAI and NPP varied from 5 to 100% of the mean change, due to the uncertainty arising from natural weather-induced variability, with Southeast England being most sensitive to this. It was also the most susceptible to climate change and drought, with reduced suitability for broad-leaved trees such as beech, small-leaved lime, and hornbeam. These could lead to important changes in woodland composition across Great Britain.

scholarly journals Influence of 2000–2050 climate change on particulate matter in the United States: results from a new statistical model

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 4355-4367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Shen ◽  
Loretta J. Mickley ◽  
Lee T. Murray
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Low Cloud

Abstract. We use a statistical model to investigate the effect of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2. 5) air quality across the contiguous United States. By applying observed relationships of PM2. 5 and meteorology to the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparision Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives, we bypass some of the uncertainties inherent in chemistry-climate models. Our approach uses both the relationships between PM2. 5 and local meteorology as well as the synoptic circulation patterns, defined as the singular value decomposition (SVD) pattern of the spatial correlations between PM2. 5 and meteorological variables in the surrounding region. Using an ensemble of 19 global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 scenario, we project an increase of 0.4–1.4 µg m−3 in annual mean PM2. 5 in the eastern US and a decrease of 0.3–1.2 µg m−3 in the Intermountain West by the 2050s, assuming present-day anthropogenic sources of PM2. 5. Mean summertime PM2. 5 increases as much as 2–3 µg m−3 in the eastern United States due to faster oxidation rates and greater mass of organic aerosols from biogenic emissions. Mean wintertime PM2. 5 decreases by 0.3–3 µg m−3 over most regions in the United States, likely due to the volatilization of ammonium nitrate. Our approach provides an efficient method to calculate the potential climate penalty on air quality across a range of models and scenarios. We find that current atmospheric chemistry models may underestimate or even fail to capture the strongly positive sensitivity of monthly mean PM2. 5 to temperature in the eastern United States in summer, and they may underestimate future changes in PM2. 5 in a warmer climate. In GEOS-Chem, the underestimate in monthly mean PM2. 5–temperature relationship in the east in summer is likely caused by overly strong negative sensitivity of monthly mean low cloud fraction to temperature in the assimilated meteorology ( ∼  −0.04 K−1) compared to the weak sensitivity implied by satellite observations (±0.01 K−1). The strong negative dependence of low cloud cover on temperature in turn causes the modeled rates of sulfate aqueous oxidation to diminish too rapidly as temperatures rise, leading to the underestimate of sulfate–temperature slopes, especially in the south. Our work underscores the importance of evaluating the sensitivity of PM2. 5 to its key controlling meteorological variables in climate-chemistry models on multiple timescales before they are applied to project future air quality.

scholarly journals Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Six Subalpine Tree Species in South Korea Using a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Sanghyuk Lee ◽  
Huicheul Jung ◽  
Jaeyong Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Ensemble Approach ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity and has already caused extensive regional extinction. In particular danger are the plant habitats in subalpine zones, which are more vulnerable to climate change. Evergreen coniferous trees in South Korean subalpine zones are currently designated as a species that need special care given their conservation value, but the reason for their decline and its seriousness remains unclear. This research estimates the potential land suitability (LS) of the subalpine zones in South Korea for six coniferous species vulnerable to climate change in the current time (1970–2000) and two future periods, the 2050s (2041–2060) and the 2070s (2061–2080). We analyze the ensemble-averaged loss of currently suitable habitats in the future, using nine species distribution models (SDMs). Korean arborvitae (Thuja koraiensis) and Khingan fir (Abies nephrolepis) are two species expected to experience significant habitat losses in 2050 (−59.5% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 to −65.9% under RCP 8.5 and −56.3% under RCP 4.5 to −57.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively). High extinction risks are estimated for these species, due to the difficulty of finding other suitable habitats with high LS. The current habitat of Korean fir (Abies koreana), listed as a threatened species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, is expected to decrease by −23.9% (RCP 4.5) to −28.4% (RCP 8.5) and −36.5% (RCP 4.5) to −36.7% (RCP 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Still, its suitable habitats are also estimated to expand geographically toward the northern part of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. In the context of forest management and adaptation planning, the multi-model ensemble approach to mapping future shifts in the range of subalpine tree species under climate change provides robust information about the potential distribution of threatened and endanger

How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change?

2004 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
M. W. Schwartz ◽  
Anantha M. Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Eastern United States

Projected Tree Species Redistribution Under Climate Change: Implications for Ecosystem Vulnerability Across Protected Areas in the Eastern United States

Ecosystems ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott G. Zolkos ◽  
Patrick Jantz ◽  
Tina Cormier ◽  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Daniel W. McKenney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ecosystem Vulnerability

scholarly journals Predicting Potential Changes in Suitable Habitat and Distribution by 2100 for Tree Species of the Eastern United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. IVERSON ◽  
Anantha M. PRASAD ◽  
Mark W. SCHWARTZ
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States

PREDICTING ABUNDANCE OF 80 TREE SPECIES FOLLOWING CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES

1998 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 465-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Anantha M. Prasad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Eastern United States
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document