scholarly journals Learning from prices: information aggregation and accumulation in an asset market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Berardi
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Private Signals ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Can prices convey information about the fundamental value of an asset? This paper considers this problem in relation to the dynamic properties of the fundamental (whether it is constant or time-varying) and the structure of information available to agents. Risk-averse traders receive two potential signals each period: one exogenous and private and the other, prices, endogenous and public. Prices aggregate private information but include aggregate noise. Information can accumulate over time both through endogenous and exogenous signals. With a constant fundamental, the precision of both private and public cumulative information increases over time but agents put progressively more weight on the endogenous signals, asymptotically disregarding private ones. If the fundamental is time-varying, the use of past private signals complicates the role of prices as a source of information, since it introduces endogenous serial correlation in the price signal and cross-correlation between it and innovations in the fundamental. A modified version of the Kalman filter can still be used to extract information from prices and results show that the precision of the endogenous signals converges to a constant, with both private and public information used at all times.

scholarly journals Redacted disclosure and analysts' weighting of private and public information

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Lei Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Information Environment ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Proprietary Information ◽  
Fair Disclosure ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Capital Financing

This paper investigates whether and how redacting proprietary information in regulatory filings affects financial analysts' weighting of private and public information. I examine this issue in the context of initial public offerings (IPO) where firms are allowed to redact value-relevant, proprietary information in relation to material agreements. To the extent that redaction affects firm information environment, I expect redaction to incentivize analysts to overweight their private information relative to public information. As predicted, I find that analysts' overweighting of private information is greater for redacted IPO firms. Moreover, this result prevails particularly when analysts involved rely more on private information. Next, I find analysts' overweighting of private information is more pronounced for analysts who have limited resources, ability, and attention, and when IPO firms do not receive venture capital financing. Finally, I find that the redaction-overweighting relation is attenuated after the passage of Regulation Fair Disclosure. I also find that analysts' overweighting of private information increases redacted IPO firms' idiosyncratic return volatility. Overall, my results extend prior research by examining the role of firm information environment on analysts' decision-making process.

scholarly journals Dynamic Signaling with Dropout Risk

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesc Dilmé ◽  
Fei Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Varying ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Indivisible Good ◽  
Initial Belief ◽  
Costly Delay ◽  
Over Time

We study the role of dropout risk in dynamic signaling. A seller privately knows the quality of an indivisible good and decides when to trade. In each period, he may draw a dropout shock that forces him to trade immediately. To avoid costly delay, the seller with a low-quality good voluntarily pools with early dropouts, implying that the expected quality of the good increases over time. We characterize the time-varying equilibrium trading dynamics. It is demonstrated that the maximum equilibrium delay of trade is decreasing in the initial belief that the good is of high quality. (JEL C73, D82, D83)

The Development of Self-Representations During the Transition to Early Adolescence: The Role of Gender, Puberty, and School Transition

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 774-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathrin Schaffhuser ◽  
Mathias Allemand ◽  
Beate Schwarz
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Early Adolescence ◽  
Pubertal Timing ◽  
School Transition ◽  
Late Childhood ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Domain Specific ◽  
Representation Level ◽  
Over Time

The present study investigated the development of global and domain-specific self-representations in the transition from late childhood to early adolescence and tested whether gender, puberty, and school transition help explain individual differences in change. The study was based on three measurement occasions over 2 years and included 248 adolescents (average age at T1 = 10.6 years). Findings indicated both stability and change over time. Individual differences in change were partially explained by gender and school transition. It revealed that girls experienced steeper decreasing trajectories and were more negatively affected by school transition in comparison with boys. Time-varying associations between puberty and self-representations were evident in terms of perceived pubertal timing. Findings suggest that both biological (pubertal timing) and contextual factors (school transition) play a role in explaining individual differences of self-representation level as well as their development in girls’ and boys’ transition to early adolescence.

scholarly journals Dynamic targets in the acquisition of L2 English vowels

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Schwartz ◽  
Grzegorz Aperliński ◽  
Kamil Kaźmierski ◽  
Jarosław Weckwerth
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
First Year ◽  
First Year Students ◽  
Acoustic Data ◽  
English Vowels ◽  
Over Time

This paper presents acoustic data on the dynamic properties of the FLEECE and TRAP vowels in the speech of two groups of Polish users of English. Results reveal that the more proficient group users, made up of teachers and professors with professional-level proficiency in English, produce more dramatic patterns of formant movement, reminiscent of native productions, than first year students. It is argued that vowel inherent spectra change (VISC) is an inherent aspect of English phonology, originated in interactions between vowels and neighboring consonants, and later generalized to the vowel system as a whole. By contrast, Polish is a language with a minimal role of VISC. Consequently, successful acquisition of L2 English vowels involves not only the mastery of vowels in F1-F2 space, but also formant trajectories over time.

scholarly journals Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (6) ◽  
pp. 2281-2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mira Frick ◽  
Ryota Iijima ◽  
Yuhta Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Social Learning ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
The State ◽  
Type Distribution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Private Signals ◽  
The World ◽  
True State ◽  
Over Time

We exhibit a natural environment, social learning among heterogeneous agents, where even slight misperceptions can have a large negative impact on long‐run learning outcomes. We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents' actions over time, where agents' actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, we show, first, that even arbitrarily small amounts of misperception about the type distribution can generate extreme breakdowns of information aggregation, where in the long run all agents incorrectly assign probability 1 to some fixed state of the world, regardless of the true underlying state. Second, any misperception of the type distribution leads long‐run beliefs and behavior to vary only coarsely with the state, and we provide systematic predictions for how the nature of misperception shapes these coarse long‐run outcomes. Third, we show that how fragile information aggregation is against misperception depends on the richness of agents' payoff‐relevant uncertainty; a design implication is that information aggregation can be improved by simplifying agents' learning environment. The key feature behind our findings is that agents' belief‐updating becomes “decoupled” from the true state over time. We point to other environments where this feature is present and leads to similar fragility results.

scholarly journals Contact With an Ex-Partner Is Associated With Psychological Distress After Marital Separation

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karey L. O’Hara ◽  
Austin M. Grinberg ◽  
Allison M. Tackman ◽  
Matthias R. Mehl ◽  
David A. Sbarra
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Psychological Adjustment ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Marital Separation ◽  
Person Variable ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we examined the association between naturalistically observed in-person contact with an ex-partner and separation-related psychological distress (SRPD). One hundred twenty-two recently separated adults were assessed using the Electronically Activated Recorder on three occasions across 5 months. The association between in-person contact with an ex-partner, as a between-person variable, and concurrent SRPD was not reliably different from zero, nor was the time-varying effect of in-person contact. However, more frequent in-person contact with an ex-partner predicted higher SRPD 2 months later, above and beyond the variance accounted for by concurrent in-person contact, demographic, relationship, and attachment factors. Follow-up analyses showed that this effect was present only for people without children; a 1 SD increase in in-person contact offset and slowed the predicted decline in SRPD over 2 months by 112%. In our discussion, we emphasize new ways to think about the role of in-person contact in shaping adults’ psychological adjustment to separation over time.

scholarly journals PREPRINT: Contact and Psychological Adjustment following Divorce/Separation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karey O'Hara ◽  
Austin Grinberg ◽  
Allison Mary Tackman ◽  
Matthias R. Mehl ◽  
David Sbarra
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Psychological Adjustment ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Interpersonal Contact ◽  
Person Variable ◽  
Over Time

This study examined the association between naturalistically-observed in-person contact with one’s ex-partner and separation-related psychological distress (SRPD). 122 recently separated adults were assessed using the Electronically Activated Recorder (Mehl, 2017) on three occasions across five months. The association between in-person contact with one’s expartner, as a between-person variable, and concurrent SRPD was not reliably different from zero, nor was the time-varying effect of in-person contact. However, more frequent in-person contact with one’s ex-partner predicted higher SRPD two months later, above and beyond the variance accounted for by oncurrent in-person contact, demographic, relationship, and attachment factors. Follow-up analyses yielded that this effect was only present for people without children; a one standard deviation increase in in-person contact offset and slowed the predicted decline in SRPD over two months by 112%. Our discussion emphasizes new ways to think about the role of interpersonal contact in shaping adults’ psychological adjustment to separation over time.

Public and Private Partner Selection in Battle of Sexes

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-64
Author(s):  
Pedro Mariano ◽  
Davide Nunes ◽  
Luís Correia
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Partner Selection ◽  
Population Diversity ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Is Strategy ◽  
Opinion Model ◽  
A Minor

In this paper the authors investigate what factors can promote population diversity. They compare different partner selection models and strategy mobility on the Battle of Sexes game. This is a game with a coordination dilemma where players must decide which event to attend given that each one has its preferred event but they prefer going together. They investigate two types of partner selection: one based in private information and another based on public information, which is based on an opinion model. The authors analyze two variants of the opinion model. Experimental analysis shows that partner selection plays a minor role of favoring population diversity. One of the most important factors is strategy mobility either implicitly through mutation or explicitly when an offspring is placed in a different location.

Conformity Voting and the Value of Public Information

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (04) ◽  
pp. 913-920
Author(s):  
Haritz Garro
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Candidate Model ◽  
Quality Of Information ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Public Signals ◽  
Private And Public

I study how the quality of information affects politician selection in a two-candidate model where voters want to vote for the best candidate but also for the winner. Voters receive private and public signals about candidates’ relative valence. Public information has a stronger effect on equilibrium outcomes because voters use it to infer other voters’ beliefs. Contrary to what might be expected, more precise public information does not always benefit the better candidate’s electoral prospects: when voters’ private information is precise enough, improving public information hurts the better candidate’s electoral prospects. The model provides a rationale for the prevalence of large swings in voter sentiment in close elections, and for front-runner candidates’ tendency to avoid face-to-face television debates with the underdog.

scholarly journals Interpersonal Surveillance on Social Media

2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Trottier
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Information Flows ◽  
Virtual Self ◽  
Médias Sociaux ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Medias Sociaux

This article examines changing rules and regimes of visibility on social media, using Facebook as a case study. Interpersonal social media surveillance warrants a care of the virtual self. Yet this care is complicated by social media’s rapid growth, and especially Facebook’s cross-contextual information flows that publicize otherwise private information. Drawing from a series of thirty interviews, this article focuses on how users perceive and manage their own visibility and take advantage of the visibility of other users. These experiences are tied to shifting understandings of private and public information, as well as new terms like “stalking” and “creeping” that frame surveillant practices.Cet article examine l’évolution des règles et des régimes de visibilité sur les médias sociaux, en utilisant Facebook comme une étude de cas. La surveillance interpersonnelle sur les médias sociaux nécessite un soin de l’être virtuel. Pourtant, ce soin est compliqué par l’expansion rapide des médias sociaux, et en particulier la nature inter contextuel de Facebook, qui diffuse de l’information privé. Tirant d’une série de trente entrevues, cet article concentre sur la manière dont les utilisateurs perçoivent et gèrent leur proper visibilité sur Facebook ainsi que de profiter de la visibilité des autres. Ces expériences sont liées à l’évolution des conceptions de l’information publique et privée, ainsi que de termes nouveaux comme «harcèlement» et «stalking» qui caractérise la surveillance sur les médias sociaux.

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