scholarly journals The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Nigri ◽  
Elisabetta Barbi ◽  
Susanna Levantesi
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Country Specific

Longevity and Education: A Demographic Perspective

Gerontology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domantas Jasilionis ◽  
Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
National Level ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
Level Statistics ◽  
Length Of Life

In the second half of the 20th century, the advances in human longevity observed have been accompanied by an increase in the disparities between countries and regions. Education is one of the strongest predictors of life expectancy. Studies have shown that both relative and absolute mortality differences by education within countries have been increasing, even in the most developed and egalitarian countries. It is possible to assume that groups of highly educated people who systematically display life expectancy levels which are higher than the observed best practice (record) life expectancy at the national level are vanguards who are leading the way toward a lengthening of life for the remaining population groups. This evidence based on population-level statistics and exploring an important single factor could inspire further discussion about the possibilities for extending human length of life at the national level. However, more comprehensive and reliable data covering a larger number of countries and more covariates are needed for understanding health effects of education and prospects of human longevity.

scholarly journals Modeling Best Practice Life Expectancy Using Gumbel Autoregressive Models

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Anthony Medford
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Model Diagnostics ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Simulation Results

Best practice life expectancy has recently been modeled using extreme value theory. In this paper we present the Gumbel autoregressive model of order one—Gumbel AR(1)—as an option for modeling best practice life expectancy. This class of model represents a neat and coherent framework for modeling time series extremes. The Gumbel distribution accounts for the extreme nature of best practice life expectancy, while the AR structure accounts for the temporal dependence in the time series. Model diagnostics and simulation results indicate that these models present a viable alternative to Gaussian AR(1) models when dealing with time series of extremes and merit further exploration.

scholarly journals Persistent disparities in antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and virological suppression across Europe, 2004 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamilla Laut ◽  
Leah Shepherd ◽  
Roxana Radoi ◽  
Igor Karpov ◽  
Milosz Parczewski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Best Practice ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Antiretroviral Treatment ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Virological Suppression ◽  
Hiv Care ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Eurosida Study ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Country Specific

Background: Direct comparisons between countries in core HIV care parameters are often hampered by differences in data collection. Aim: Within the EuroSIDA study, we compared levels of antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and virological suppression (HIV RNA < 500 copies/mL) across Europe and explored temporal trends. Methods: In three cross-sectional analyses in 2004–05, 2009–10 and 2014–15, we assessed country-specific percentages of ART coverage and virological suppression among those on ART. Temporal changes were analysed using logistic regression. Results: Overall, the percentage of people on ART increased from 2004–05 (67.8%) to 2014–15 (78.2%), as did the percentage among those on ART who were virologically suppressed (75.2% in 2004–05, 87.7% in 2014–15). However, the rate of improvement over time varied significantly between regions (p < 0.01). In 2014–15, six of 34 countries had both ART coverage and virological suppression of above 90% among those on ART. The pattern varied substantially across clinics within countries, with ART coverage ranging from 61.9% to 97.0% and virological suppression from 32.2% to 100%. Compared with Western Europe (as defined in this study), patients in other regions were less likely to be virologically suppressed in 2014–15, with the lowest odds of suppression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.16; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13–0.21) in Eastern Europe. Conclusions: Despite overall improvements over a decade, we found persistent disparities in country-specific estimates of ART coverage and virological suppression. Underlying reasons for this variation warrant further analysis to identify a best practice and benchmark HIV care across EuroSIDA.

Best-practice healthy life expectancy vs. life expectancy: Catching up or lagging behind?

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (46) ◽  
pp. e2115273118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iñaki Permanyer ◽  
Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽  
Jeroen J. A. Spijker
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Healthy Life Expectancy ◽  
Healthy Life ◽  
Catching Up

scholarly journals Untangling the Genetics of Human Longevity—A Challenging Quest

Genes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dato ◽  
Soerensen ◽  
Rose
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Average Life ◽  
Average Life Expectancy

Human average life expectancy in developed countries has increased dramatically in the last century, a phenomenon which is potentially accompanied by a significant rise in multi-morbidity and frailty among older individuals.[...]

“Months, not years”: Impact of clinical discussions of advanced cancer life-expectancy on patient illness understanding.

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (29_suppl) ◽  
pp. 30-30
Author(s):  
Andrew S. Epstein ◽  
Holly Gwen Prigerson ◽  
Leonard Saltz ◽  
Eileen Mary O'Reilly ◽  
Manish A. Shah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
End Of Life ◽  
Advanced Cancer ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Chemotherapy Regimen ◽  
Advanced Cancer Patients ◽  
Coping With Cancer ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Observational Cohort ◽  
Upper Gastrointestinal

30 Background: Patients’ understanding of their illness often guides best practice, and this is no less true at the end of life. Data showing the influence of patients’ acknowledgment of prognostic discussions on the accuracy of patients’ illness understanding could inform the debate regarding how to engage in these difficult discussions. Methods: To evaluate the effects of recent and past oncologist-patient discussions about prognosis/life-expectancy (P/LE) on changes in advanced cancer patents’ illness understanding (acknowledgement of their illness as 1. terminal; 2. incurable; 3. advance staged; and 4. associated with an estimated life-expectancy in months, not years), 208 patients (with advanced lung or upper gastrointestinal cancers that progressed on 1 chemotherapy regimen, or advanced colorectal cancers that progressed on 2) from Coping with Cancer II, a prospective observational cohort study, were interviewed before and after a visit with their oncologists who discussed scan results regarding potential additional progression. Results: Median time between pre- and post-scan interviews was 38 days. Controlling for potential confounds (i.e., patients’ race) and adjusting for patients’ pre-scan illness understanding, patients who acknowledged ever having discussions of P/LE with their oncologists were more likely to recognize that their disease was incurable (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 2.97, p = 0.009) than those who did not. Compared to patients who denied ever having a discussion of P/LE, those who reported having both recent and past discussions of P/LE were more likely to recognize that their disease was at an advanced stage (AOR = 4.88, p = 0.012), and those who reported having only recent discussions, or both recent and past discussions, of P/LE were more likely to estimate their life-expectancy in terms of months as opposed to years (AOR = 10.1, p = 0.050, and AOR = 17.5, p = 0.006, respectively). Conclusions: Advanced cancer patients who acknowledge having discussions of P/LE with their oncologists have a better understanding of the terminal nature of their illnesses as compared to those who do not, and thus may be better prepared to make informed end-of-life care decisions.

scholarly journals Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. e2019536118
Author(s):  
James W. Vaupel ◽  
Francisco Villavicencio ◽  
Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
The Past ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Length Of Life

This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data on age-specific mortality are used to estimate life expectancy, and validated data on exceptional life spans are used to study the maximum length of life. In the countries doing best each year, life expectancy started to increase around 1840 at a pace of almost 2.5 y per decade. This trend has continued until the present. Contrary to classical evolutionary theories of senescence and contrary to the predictions of many experts, the frontier of survival is advancing to higher ages. Furthermore, individual life spans are becoming more equal, reducing inequalities, with octogenarians and nonagenarians accounting for most deaths in countries with the highest life expectancy. If the current pace of progress in life expectancy continues, most children born this millennium will celebrate their 100th birthday. Considerable uncertainty, however, clouds forecasts: Life expectancy and maximum life span might increase very little if at all, or longevity might rise much faster than in the past. Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades in deepening understanding of how long humans have lived and how long they might live. The social, economic, health, cultural, and political consequences of further increases in longevity are so significant that the development of more powerful methods of forecasting is a priority.

scholarly journals The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Marius Pascariu ◽  
Ugofilippo Basellini ◽  
José Aburto ◽  
Vladimir Canudas-Romo
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
R Package ◽  
Value Of Life ◽  
Life Tables ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
New Model ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Age Patterns ◽  
Full Life

The prediction of human longevity levels in the future by direct forecasting of life expectancy offers numerous advantages, compared to methods based on extrapolation of age-specific death rates. However, the reconstruction of accurate life tables starting from a given level of life expectancy at birth, or any other age, is not straightforward. Model life tables have been extensively used for estimating age patterns of mortality in poor-data countries. We propose a new model inspired by indirect estimation techniques applied in demography, which can be used to estimate full life tables at any point in time, based on a given value of life expectancy at birth. Our model relies on the existing high correlations between levels of life expectancy and death rates across ages. The methods presented in this paper are implemented in a publicly available R package.

Mortality prediction and demographic ageing

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 38 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 7-28
Author(s):  
Jean-Paul Sardon
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Elderly People ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Scientific Progress ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Remaining Life Expectancy

Since 1970 age at death has much increased. This is greatly due to quick diminishing of old age mortality rates and sheds a new light on the analysis of the probable and possible variations to be expected regarding mortality. Projected numbers of elderly people depend a great deal on the choices made regarding future mortality. When comparing forecasted hypothetical mortality with recent actual achievements it is obvious that a certain amount of pessimism prevails in the forecasts. This prompts us to show greater boldness when forecasting. However, will the present rise in life expectancy, especially at higher ages, continue at the same pace or will it tend to reach its zenith (the biological limit of human life) and when? According to some experts, we are already approaching the limits of average human longevity, whereas for others, scientific progress will amply enable us to push back the age of 85 years determined by the former group. Improvement in the understanding of the multifactorial process of ageing will feed the debate but the economic, social and behavioural constraints of lengthning life spans should not be overlooked. Nevertheless and whatever age limit is set to define elderly people, based on a fixed or a varying age, as the age at which remaining life expectancy is constant, a sharp increase in numbers of elderly people is to be expected.

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