scholarly journals A Hybrid Model-Based Adaptive Framework for the Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (13) ◽  
pp. 4053-4066
Author(s):  
P. Biglarbeigi ◽  
W. A. Strong ◽  
D. Finlay ◽  
R. McDermott ◽  
P. Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Supplementary Information ◽  
Reservoir Performance ◽  
Reservoir System ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Failure State ◽  
Storage Reservoirs ◽  
Model Reliability ◽  
Satisfactory State

Abstract Climate change and population growth have influenced social and physical water scarcity in many regions. Accordingly, the future performance of water storage reservoirs, as one of the fundamental elements in the water resource management, are anticipated to be affected by climate change. This study reports on a framework that can model Reliability-Resiliency-Vulnerability (RRV) measures of water reservoirs in the context of climate change. The framework first develops a hydrological model of a reservoir system using its historical data. The model is then optimised to minimise the water deficit and flooding around the catchment area of the reservoir. The resulting optimal policies are simulated back to the model considering the GCMs. Finally, RRV indices are calculated. RRV indices are effective measures for defining the performance of reservoir systems. Reliability is defined as the probability of the failure of the system, Resiliency is defined as the time needed for the system to go back to its satisfactory state once it entered the failure state, and Vulnerability is defined as the “magnitude of the failure” of a system. The proposed framework has been applied to a reservoir system located in the south-west of Iran on the Dez river. The results show climate change may increase the reliability and resiliency of the system under study while increasing its vulnerability. Therefore, the output of this framework can also provide supplementary information to authorities and decision-makers to inform future water management and planning policies.

scholarly journals Mapping the Distribution of Water Resource Security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region at the County Level under a Changing Context

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Yin ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Croke ◽  
Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
County Level ◽  
Populated Region ◽  
Water Resource Security ◽  
Resource Security

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jingjinji) region is the most densely populated region in China and suffers from severe water resource shortage, with considerable water-related issues emerging under a changing context such as construction of water diversion projects (WDP), regional synergistic development, and climate change. To this end, this paper develops a framework to examine the water resource security for 200 counties in the Jingjinji region under these changes. Thus, county-level water resource security is assessed in terms of the long-term annual mean and selected typical years (i.e., dry, normal, and wet years), with and without the WDP, and under the current and projected future (i.e., regional synergistic development and climate change). The outcomes of such scenarios are assessed based on two water-crowding indicators, two use-to-availability indicators, and one composite indicator. Results indicate first that the water resources are distributed unevenly, relatively more abundant in the northeastern counties and extremely limited in the other counties. The water resources are very limited at the regional level, with the water availability per capita and per unit gross domestic product (GDP) being only 279/290 m3 and 46/18 m3 in the current and projected future scenarios, respectively, even when considering the WDP. Second, the population carrying capacity is currently the dominant influence, while economic development will be the controlling factor in the future for most middle and southern counties. This suggests that significant improvement in water-saving technologies, vigorous replacement of industries from high to low water consumption, as well as water from other supplies for large-scale applications are greatly needed. Third, the research identifies those counties most at risk to water scarcity and shows that most of them can be greatly relieved after supplementation by the planned WDP. Finally, more attention should be paid to the southern counties because their water resources are not only limited but also much more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. This work should benefit water resource management and allocation decisions in the Jingjinji region, and the proposed assessment framework can be applied to other similar problems.

When to start an adaptation strategy in response to climate change in reservoir system management

2021 ◽  
pp. 127111
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Jinshu Li ◽  
Pan Liu ◽  
Xiaohui Lei ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
System Management ◽  
Reservoir System

Water-Resource Management in Mexico Under Climate Change

2015 ◽  
pp. 215-243
Author(s):  
R. T. Montes-Rojas ◽  
J. E. Ospina-Noreña ◽  
C. Gay-García ◽  
C. Rueda-Abad ◽  
I. Navarro-González
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management

scholarly journals Water resilience mapping of Chennai, India using analytical hierarchy process

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Kaaviya ◽  
V. Devadas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Chennai City ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Abstract Background The urban water system is the worst hit in global climate change. Water resilience is the system’s ability to retaliate and recover from various water-related disruptions. The present study aims to delineate the water resilience zones in Chennai city, Tamil Nadu, India, by effectively integrating the geographic information system, remote sensing, and analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Methods The methodology incorporated 15 vital factors. A multi-criteria decision analysis technique was adopted to assign a weight to each parameter using the AHP. A pairwise decision matrix was constructed, parameter’s relative importance and the consistency ratio were established. Integration of all maps by weighted overlay analysis technique depicted water resilience intensities of five different classes. Results Very low, low and moderate water resilience areas accounted for more than three-fourth of the study area. Area Under Curve score (80.12%) depicted the accuracy of the developed model. Sensitivity analysis determined the significance of the parameters in the delineation. The logical structural approach can be employed in other parts of India or elsewhere with modifications. Conclusion This study is novel in its approach by holistically analyzing water resilience by integrating disruptions related to flood, drought and the city's water infrastructure system's adequacy and efficiency. Researchers and planners can effectively use the study results to ensure resilience as a new perspective on effective water resource management and climate change mitigation. It becomes a decision aid mechanism identifying where the system is vulnerable to potential water-related risks for employing resilience measures.

scholarly journals Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River Basin as a result of climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5737-5768 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Hughes ◽  
D. G. Kingston ◽  
M. C. Todd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Okavango River ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change In Mean

Abstract. This paper assesses the hydrological response to scenarios of climate change in the Okavango River catchment in Southern Africa. Climate scenarios are constructed representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 7 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a substantial change in mean flow associated with a global warming of 2 °C. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the projected changes between different climate models, implying that the ensemble mean is not an appropriate generalised indicator of impact. The uncertainty in response between different climate model patterns is considerably greater than the range due to uncertainty in hydrological model parameterisation. There is also a clear need to evaluate the physical mechanisms associated with the model projected changes in this region. The implications for water resource management policy are considered.

Ecosystem Services Demand Management Under Climate Change Scenarios

2019 ◽  
pp. 45-65
Author(s):  
Abdelkrim Ben Salem ◽  
Souad Ben Salem ◽  
Mohammed Khebiza Yacoubi ◽  
Mohammed Messouli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Ecosystem ◽  
Storage Volume ◽  
Groundwater Reserves ◽  
Water Evaluation And Planning

Water ecosystem service is the most important element that supports Tafilalet agro-ecosystems. In this region, drought frequency is increasing, which complicate the management groundwater reserves. The ephemeral flows of the rivers force people to use groundwater to meet the population demand. Consequently, water resource management is of significant importance the sustainability of this area. Water evaluation and planning (WEAP) is useful management software used to evaluate and trace the trend of water demand. This model was applied in case of Ziz basin in order to simulate and analyze the situation of water under different scenarios. The results show an increasing of demand for water irrigation and with introducing modern irrigation scenario. However, a decreasing trend in reservoir storage volume and groundwater storage was projected in Tafilalet.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Joint Optimal Operation of Reservoir System and Analysis of Objectives Competition Mechanism: A Case Study in the Upper Reach of the Yangtze River

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mufeng Chen ◽  
Zengchuan Dong ◽  
Wenhao Jia ◽  
Xiaokuan Ni ◽  
Hongyi Yao
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Optimal Operation ◽  
Total Power ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Reservoir System

The multi-objective optimal operation and the joint scheduling of giant-scale reservoir systems are of great significance for water resource management; the interactions and mechanisms between the objectives are the key points. Taking the reservoir system composed of 30 reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as the research object, this paper constructs a multi-objective optimal operation model integrating four objectives of power generation, ecology, water supply, and shipping under the constraints of flood control to analyze the inside interaction mechanisms among the objectives. The results are as follows. (1) Compared with single power generation optimization, multi-objective optimization improves the benefits of the system. The total power generation is reduced by only 4.09% at most, but the water supply, ecology, and shipping targets are increased by 98.52%, 35.09%, and 100% at most under different inflow conditions, respectively. (2) The competition between power generation and the other targets is the most obvious; the relationship between water supply and ecology depends on the magnitude of flow required by the control section for both targets, and the restriction effect of the shipping target is limited. (3) Joint operation has greatly increased the overall benefits. Compared with the separate operation of each basin, the benefits of power generation, water supply, ecology, and shipping increased by 5.50%, 45.99%, 98.49%, and 100.00% respectively in the equilibrium scheme. This study provides a widely used method to analyze the multi-objective relationship mechanism, and can be used to guide the actual scheduling rules.

scholarly journals Applications of Bayesian Networks as Decision Support Tools for Water Resource Management under Climate Change and Socio-Economic Stressors: A Critical Appraisal

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thuc D. Phan ◽  
James C. R. Smart ◽  
Ben Stewart-Koster ◽  
Oz. Sahin ◽  
Wade L. Hadwen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Decision Support Tools ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Support Tools ◽  
Economic Stressors

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely implemented as graphical decision support tools which use probability inferences to generate “what if?” and “which is best?” analyses of potential management options for water resource management, under climate change and socio-economic stressors. This paper presents a systematic quantitative literature review of applications of BNs for decision support in water resource management. The review quantifies to what extent different types of data (quantitative and/or qualitative) are used, to what extent optimization-based and/or scenario-based approaches are adopted for decision support, and to what extent different categories of adaptation measures are evaluated. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (68%) to evaluate the performance of management measures, whilst relatively few studies (18%) applied optimization-based approaches to optimize management measures. Institutional and social measures (62%) were mostly applied to the management of water-related concerns, followed by technological and engineered measures (47%), and ecosystem-based measures (37%). There was no significant difference in the use of quantitative and/or qualitative data across different decision support approaches (p = 0.54), or in the evaluation of different categories of management measures (p = 0.25). However, there was significant dependence (p = 0.076) between the types of management measure(s) evaluated, and the decision support approaches used for that evaluation. The potential and limitations of BN applications as decision support systems are discussed along with solutions and recommendations, thereby further facilitating the application of this promising decision support tool for future research priorities and challenges surrounding uncertain and complex water resource systems driven by multiple interactions amongst climatic and non-climatic changes.

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