scholarly journals Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Mellacher
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Viral Evolution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Evolutionary Selection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Evolutionary Advantage ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractHow will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latent period prove to be fitter. “Smart” containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge to variants with a longer incubation period and a higher share of asymptomatic infections. Reduced mortality, on the other hand, does not per se prove to be an evolutionary advantage. I then implement this model as an agent-based simulation model in order to explore its aggregate dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations show that a) containment policy design has an impact on both speed and direction of viral evolution, b) the virus may circulate in the population indefinitely, provided that containment efforts are too relaxed and the propensity of the virus to escape immunity is high enough, and crucially c) that it may not be possible to distinguish between a slowly and a rapidly evolving virus by looking only at short-term epidemiological outcomes. Thus, what looks like a successful mitigation strategy in the short run, may prove to have devastating long-run effects. These results suggest that optimal containment policy must take the propensity of the virus to mutate and escape immunity into account, strengthening the case for genetic and antigenic surveillance even in the early stages of an epidemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation in a Large City: Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Reopening Society

2021 ◽  
pp. 0272989X2110030
Author(s):  
Serin Lee ◽  
Zelda B. Zabinsky ◽  
Judith N. Wasserheit ◽  
Stephen M. Kofsky ◽  
Shan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large City ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Variable Compliance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to expand, policymakers are striving to balance the combinations of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to keep people safe and minimize social disruptions. We developed and calibrated an agent-based simulation to model COVID-19 outbreaks in the greater Seattle area. The model simulated NPIs, including social distancing, face mask use, school closure, testing, and contact tracing with variable compliance and effectiveness to identify optimal NPI combinations that can control the spread of the virus in a large urban area. Results highlight the importance of at least 75% face mask use to relax social distancing and school closure measures while keeping infections low. It is important to relax NPIs cautiously during vaccine rollout in 2021.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT CONSEQUENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS: CASE OF KUWAIT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dušana Alshatti Schmidt ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Crucial Importance ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Growth

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has already left a mark on the economic activities and labor markets in both advanced and developing countries. While the impacts on the economy vary considerably, the oil dependent economies have been hit harder. Along with the impact of the pandemic disease, they have been contending with a major collapse in oil prices. Kuwait is the world’s seventh largest exporter of oil. Falling oil demand might affect the future growth of Kuwait’s economy in the long run, and if the crisis continues, possibility to provide employment opportunities will be challenged. The aim of this paper is to analyze potential pandemic’s impact on employment in Kuwait in comparison with the financial crisis from 2008-2009, what is of crucial importance for the businesses in the region to understand. The paper is based on a systematic review of the secondary data gathered by international institutions.

scholarly journals Determining the Number of Passengers for Each of Three Reverse Pyramid Boarding Groups with COVID-19 Flying Restrictions

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2038
Author(s):  
Camelia Delcea ◽  
R. John Milne ◽  
Liviu-Adrian Cotfas
Keyword(s):  
Health Risk ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Relative Preference ◽  
Search Optimization ◽  
Airport Terminal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The onset of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has changed many aspects of people’s economic and social activities. For many airlines, social distancing has reduced airplane capacity by one third as a result of keeping the middle seats empty. Additionally, social distancing between passengers traversing the aisle slows the boarding process. Recent literature has suggested that the reverse pyramid boarding method provides favorable values for boarding time and passenger health metrics when compared to other boarding methods with social distancing. Assuming reverse pyramid boarding with the middle seats unoccupied, we determined the number of passengers to include in each of three boarding groups. We assumed that passengers use a jet-bridge that connects the airport terminal to the airplane’s front door. We used agent-based modeling and a stochastic simulation to evaluate solutions. A full grid search found an initial good solution, and then local search optimization determined the best solution based upon the airline’s relative preference for minimizing average boarding time and minimizing risks to previously seated passengers from later-boarding, potentially contagious passengers breathing near them. The resulting solution contained the number of passengers to place into each of the three boarding groups. If an airline is most concerned about the health risk to seated passengers from later boarding passengers walking near them, the best three-group reverse pyramid method adapted for social distancing will first board passengers with window seats in the rear half of the airplane, then will board passengers with window seats in the front half of the airplane and those with aisle seats in the rear half of the airplane, and finally will board the passengers with aisle seats in the front half of the airplane. The resulting solution takes about 2% longer to board than the three-group solution that minimizes boarding time while providing a 25% decrease in health risk to aisle seat passengers from later boarding passengers.

Rationally Irrational?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dov Cohen ◽  
Ivan Hernandez ◽  
Karl Gruschow ◽  
Andrzej Nowak ◽  
Michele J Gelfand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Negative Reciprocity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Over Time

A commitment to honor is a commitment to irrationality—at least in the short-run—because it involves defending one’s honor, regardless of stakes or cost. Yet, circumstances giving rise to honor cultures—lawless environments, portable (easy-to-steal) wealth—create milieus where people must appear tough to deter predators. Thus, what seems irrational in the short-run may be rational in the long-run. This chapter describes three agent-based models exploring when an honor stance is advantageous and examining population dynamics of strategies in the environment. Models track empirical observations well. Further, models highlight: how prosocial reciprocity (not just vengeance) is crucial for honor to thrive; how positive and negative reciprocity become correlated over time in honor cultures; the rise of a strategy opposite to honor and how honor and its opposite exist symbiotically; how evolution cannot be outsmarted but can be “outdumbed”; cycling of strategies’ popularity; and Child × Environment interactions producing drift.

THE MORBIDITY WITH A TEMPORARY INCAPACITY FOR WORK IN RUSSIA DURING THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) PANDEMIC OUTBREAK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.G. Gazimova ◽  
◽  
A.S. Shastin ◽  
V.O. Ruzakov
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Single Case ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has had a global impact on all spheres of social life and population health. A study of the influence of a novel coronavirus infection COVID-19 on the working population health is an up-to-date issue. The objective is to assess changes in the morbidity with a temporary incapacity for work during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. Methods. We have analyzed the data on the morbidity with a temporary incapacity for work obtained from the unified interdepartmental information and statistical system. The change in the rates in 2020 is determined regarding the long-run annual average over 2015-2019 years. We ranked the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Results. In 2020, there was an increase in all three indicators of a temporary incapacity for work nationwide and in all federal districts. We compared two indicators: “the number of days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers” and “the number of cases of temporary incapacity per 100 workers”. It has emerged that the first indicator is higher both nationwide and in all federal districts than the second one, which is typical for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Conclusion. In 2020, there was an increase in the morbidity with a temporary incapacity for work in the Russian Federation as a whole and in all federal districts. It was evaluated according to the indicators: “the number of cases of temporary incapacity per 100 workers”, “the number of days of temporary incapacity per 100 workers” and “an average duration of a temporary incapacity for work”. There was a decrease in the number of cases and days of temporary incapacity for work per 100 employees in five constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Moreover, a decrease in the average duration of a single case was found in six regions. A reduction in the admission number may be the reason for an increase in the duration of a single case of a temporary incapacity for work. Additionally, the limited availability of an elective care is also a determining factor

Regulation in the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic times: day-watchman tackling the novel coronavirus

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej M. Sokołowski
Keyword(s):  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Response ◽  
Regulatory Authorities ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Regulatory Actions

Purpose While fighting with the novel coronavirus will not be the main goal of sectoral regulators, different regulatory authorities join the struggle by providing a regulatory response. The purpose of this paper is to address this regulatory response in pandemic gathered around eight thematic areas. Design/methodology/approach This paper discusses the regulatory response in pandemic gathered around eight thematic areas, namely, the objectives, rules and standards, authorization and permits, procedure, monitoring and surveillance, enforcement, accountability and an institution presenting regulatory actions to tackle coronavirus (COVID-19) in reference to day-watchman type regulation. Findings Tackling the COVID-19 pandemic should be a knowledge-based approach (taking as much as possible from best available practices with respect to the novel coronavirus) with a framework of rules, standards, authorization, permits and guidance, monitored and enforced in a way adjusted to conditions of the pandemic, being as safe (as non-physical, as online) as possible, with suspended or extended deadlines, free of unnecessary administrative burdens. In this way, regulation should be pragmatic and flexible, as under the day-watchman model. Research limitations/implications In a post-pandemic regime, in the short run, the regulators should try to minimize the social and economic challenges faced by consumers and entrepreneurs. Among them, one may find scaling back, at least temporarily, the rules developed in non-disaster contexts. However, in the end, the post-disaster reforms tended to strengthen regulators’ hands, also under the deregulated government. The day-watchman type regulation balances both, as a middle ground approach, being a bridge between “a total subordination” and “a complete release.” Practical implications The disaster management (including public law regulation) provided by public authorities when tackling the effects of hurricanes, earthquakes or tsunamis can be a benchmark for regulatory responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. This concerns the support offered to entities and individuals affected by the negative consequences of reducing or stopping their businesses and staying in isolation. Social implications The day-watchman approach, visible in certain examples of public response to COVID-19 may serve as a framework for establishing a regulatory regime that would automatically take effect in case of another pandemic, limiting delays in regulatory actions, reducing non-compliance and accelerating recovery. Originality/value This study provides an analysis of different theories on public regulation addressing the notion of regulation using the day-watchman theory, which could be applied in regulatory actions during a pandemic. The paper discusses concrete steps taken by regulatory authorities worldwide, bringing examples from the USA, Canada, the UK, France, China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. It juxtaposes the regulatory experiences derived from different catastrophes such as hurricanes, earthquakes or tsunamis with the regulatory response in a pandemic.

scholarly journals Aggression, Conflict, and the Formation of Intimidating Group Reputation

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aron Szekely ◽  
Giulia Andrighetto ◽  
Nicolas Payette ◽  
Luca Tummolini
Keyword(s):  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Prison Gangs ◽  
Conflict Situations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Group Survival ◽  
Group Reputation ◽  
Influence Behavior ◽  
Individual Reputation

From inmates in prison gangs to soldiers in elite units, the intimidating reputation of groups often precedes its members. While individual reputation is known to affect people’s aggressiveness, whether one’s group reputation can similarly influence behavior in conflict situations is yet to be established. Using an economic game experiment, we isolate the effect of group reputation on aggression and conflict from that of individual reputation. We find that group reputation can increase the willingness to inflict costs on others but only when individuals are able to punish their fellow members. Even if internal discipline can sustain their shared reputation, more intimidating groups provide fewer benefits to their members in the short run. Using an agent-based simulation, we show that this might not be the case in the long run. Our findings yield insights into the effects of group reputation on aggression, conflict, and possible consequences for group survival.

scholarly journals Analysis of Potential Risk of COVID-19 Infections in China Based on a Pairwise Epidemic Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Luo ◽  
Shanshan Feng ◽  
Junyuan Yang ◽  
Xiao-Long Peng ◽  
Xiaochun Cao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Disease Propagation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

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