Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design

How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latent period prove to be fitter. “Smart” containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge to variants with a longer incubation period and a higher share of asymptomatic infections. Reduced mortality, on the other hand, does not per se prove to be an evolutionary advantage. I then implement this model as an agent-based simulation model in order to explore its aggregate dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations show that a) containment policy design has an impact on both speed and direction of viral evolution, b) the virus may circulate in the population indefinitely, provided that containment efforts are too relaxed and the propensity of the virus to escape immunity is high enough, and crucially c) that it may not be possible to distinguish between a slowly and a rapidly evolving virus by looking only at short-term epidemiological outcomes. Thus, what looks like a successful mitigation strategy in the short run, may prove to have devastating long-run effects. These results suggest that optimal containment policy must take the propensity of the virus to mutate and escape immunity into account, strengthening the case for genetic and antigenic surveillance even in the early stages of an epidemic.

Analysis of the Factors Affecting Fine Dust Concentration Before and After COVID-19

This study conducted a comparative analysis of the factors affecting the concentration of fine dust before and after COVID-19. Of these, the dominant factor was CO, and the influence between variables increased even after COVID-19. In the case of PM10, the influence of wind direction and wind speed variables decreased, which is thought to be due to the reduction of westerly-based foreign air pollutants following China’s containment policy. Comparative analysis by season showed that the influence of temperature and humidity was higher in winter. In spring, the influence of wind direction and speed decreased with changes in the westerly wind and the influence of China’s containment policy. In summer and autumn, when the concentration of fine dust is relatively low, the influence of CO after COVID-19 was rather high, indicating that continuous CO management is necessary. Considering the relationship between these air pollutants and the meteorological environment, it is judged that fine dust reduction measures should be implemented.

What Will Happen to the Kurds If the US Withdraws from Syria and Iraq?

The future of the Kurds in Iraq and Syria after a US withdrawal has already begun to take shape. The containment of Kurdish political and military cross-border mobility has been achieved to some extent by paving the way for Turkey’s military operations; it is now contingent on the recomposition of a desired ‘favorable balance of power” to fill the power vacuum in the Middle East. With an aggressive Turkish stance in the region, however, neither this containment policy nor the efforts made toward the maintenance of the “favorable balance of power” can be successful.

Longitudinal changes in home confinement and mental health implications: A 17-month follow-up study in England during the COVID-19 pandemic

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has brought about significant behavioural changes, one of which is increased time spent at home. Although official lockdowns were typically short-term and allowed people to leave their homes for exercise and essential activities, some individuals did not leave their home for prolonged periods due to a range of factors including clinical vulnerability. This study aimed to explore longitudinal patterns of such ‘home confinement’ across different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, and its associated predictors and mental health outcomes.MethodsData were from the UCL COVID -19 Social Study. The analytical sample consisted of 25,390 adults in England who were followed up for 17 months from March 2020 to July 2021. Data were analysed using growth mixture models.ResultsOur analyses identified three classes of growth trajectories, including one class showing a high level of persistent home confinement (24.8%), one changing class with clear alignment with national containment policy/advice (32.0%), and one class with a persistently low level of confinement (43.1%). A range of factors were found to be associated the class membership of home confinement trajectories, such as age, gender, income, employment status, social relationships and health. The class with a high level of confinement had the highest number of depressive and anxiety symptoms at the end of the follow-up independent of potential confounders.ConclusionsThere was substantial heterogeneity in longitudinal patterns of home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a striking proportion of our sample maintained a high level of home confinement over the course of 17 months, even during periods when containment measures were eased or removed and when infection rates were low. They also had the worst mental health outcomes. This group warrants special attention in addressing the mental health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A View on 20 Years of Antimicrobial Resistance in Japan by Two National Surveillance Systems: The National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases and Japan Nosocomial Infections Surveillance

The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) of Japan has conducted two national surveillance systems for approximately 20 years to monitor antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria: the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) and the Japan Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (JANIS). Data accumulated for 20 years by these two surveillance systems have helped depict the epidemiology of the representative AMR bacteria in Japan chronologically. The epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus teaches us that once AMR bacteria have established their high endemicity, controlling such AMR bacteria requires time and is challenging. On the other hand, the epidemiology that multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter sp. exhibits when a strict containment policy for AMR bacteria was introduced in the early phase of its emergence and spread reveals that it is possible to control it. Detailed epidemiology provided by these two different national surveillance systems in Japan enabled us to set up the goal for controlling each AMR bacteria at the hospital level to the prefecture/national level. It is the public health authorities’ responsibility to maintain a good surveillance system for AMR bacteria and share the data and findings with healthcare professionals and academicians.

Easy Access to Antibiotics; Spread of Antimicrobial Resistance and Implementation of One Health Approach in India

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health concern because of its fast spread. India, one of the world’s top consumer of antibiotics and second most populated country has its unique constraints of social, cultural and economic strata. The continual self-medication, use of antibiotics for the growth promotion in animals, and accumulation of residual antibiotics in the environment challenge the implementation of AMR containment policy. Hence, the present review attempts to delineate the influence of antibiotics abuse on the human, animal and environmental health under the realm of one health. It was based on the literature search using public databases to highlight the rapid surge in the burden of AMR in India affecting various sectors and/or ecosystems in India. It was found that the irrational and overuse of antibiotics in different sectors have led to the emergence of extended antimicrobial resistance wherein the environment acts as a reservoir of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs); completing the cycle of contamination and recontamination. There are efforts by government policy makers to reduce the burden of AMR in the country to reduce the health risks, through the One Health approach. Parallel efforts in educating healthcare professionals, strict legislation for pharmacies and pharmaceutical companies should be prioritize. At the same time surveillance of newly emerged AMR pathogens, prioritising research focusing on AMR, and awareness camps or programs among the local population is critical while addressing the consequences of spared of AMR in India.

The historical development of sinology in two Canadian universities: York University and the University of Guelph

PurposeThis paper gives a comparative analysis of the foundation of sinology in two Canadian universities. Despite not having diplomatic exchanges, Canada's new relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC) ignited a China interest in the Canadian academe. Through York University and the University of Guelph (U of G)'s experiences, readers will learn the rewards and challenges that sinology brings to Canadian higher education.Design/methodology/approachThis paper offers an overview of the historical foundation of sinology in the Canadian academe. Who pushes through this process? What geopolitical developments triggered young and educated Canadians to learn about China? This paper assesses York and Guelph's process in introducing sinology by relying on university archival resources and personal interviews. Why was York University successful in its mission, which, in turn, made into a comprehensive East Asian Studies degree option in 1971? What obstacles did the U of G face that prohibited it from implementing China Studies successfully?FindingsAfter 1949, Canada took a friendlier relationship with the PRC than its neighbor in the south. As China–Canada relations unfolded, Canadian witnessed a dramatic state investment in higher education. The 1960s was a decade of unprecedented university expansion. In the process, sinology enjoyed its significant growth, and both York University and the U of G made their full use of this right timing. However, China Studies at the U of G did not take off. Besides its geolocation disadvantage, Guelph's top-down managerial style in the 1960s, which resulted in collegial disillusionment, was also a significant barrier to this program's success.Originality/valueBefore the Internet age, universities were the first venues for most Canadians to acquire their initial academic knowledge of China. After the Second World War, sinology became popular among students as China became one of the world's “Big Fives”. More Canadians became romanticized with Maoism while opposing America's containment policy. York and Guelph exemplified this trend in Canadian history. Contrary to popular belief, historian Jerome Chen did not establish York's China Studies. Likewise, an ex-US diplomat John Melby did not bring China into Guelph, sinology arrived due to individual scholastic initiatives. Visionaries saw envisioned China's importance in the future world community.

The Czechoslovak Crisis of 1948 in the Perception of American Diplomats and Media

In February 1948, during the political crisis in Czechoslovakia was established a communist regime. This event completed the formation of the Soviet bloc in Europe. It directly impacted the US containment policy towards the USSR and the escalation of the Cold War. Based on archival documents and newspapers articles, the research studies these events through their perception by American media and diplomats, whose opinions and interpretations had great and decisive importance for the US public opinion and its government official reaction. The author concludes that the Czechoslovak crisis of 1948 aroused considerable interest and severe reaction in the United States. It was considered as a part of growing Soviet-American contradictions and international tension. Despite the fears of a communist coup in Czechoslovakia expressed back in 1947, American experts could not accurately predict the onset time of the crisis and its nature. The rapidity of the crisis, the Communist’s reaction, and decisiveness, lack of direct Soviet intervention, as well as the absence of democratic resistance, became a surprise for American journalists and diplomats. They believed that the communist takeover was a manifestation of Soviet expansion and the Kremlin’s desire to consolidate its control over all Eastern Europe. Despite the external legitimacy, the transfer of power to the left forces was interpreted as a coup d'état that final ized the establishment of the totalitarian regime in Czechoslovakia. Nevertheless, the US government refused to sever diplomatic relations with Prague and to initiate an international investigation. Washington found no direct evidence of Soviet intervention. It had to accept the changes in Czechoslovakia, focusing its forces on the inadmissibility of this scenario in Western Europe. The crisis directly influenced the adoption of the Marshall Plan and the intensification of the containment policy.

US Dealings with Iraq, 2001–2003

This chapter turns to US dealings with Iraq from 2001 to 2003, arguing that George W. Bush’s turn to regime change in Iraq following the 2001 terrorist attacks of September 11 supports the book’s emotion-based argument. The first section of the chapter describes the shift in Bush’s approach to Iraq from a policy of containment prior to 9/11 to a policy of regime change after 9/11. The chapter then demonstrates how Bush’s expectations toward Iraq turned hegemonic after 9/11, amplifying Iraq’s obstruction with no change in actual Iraqi behavior. The fourth section demonstrates how a lack of negative perceptions facilitated Bush’s pre-9/11 containment policy, while the fifth section demonstrates how full-blown emotional frustration led to regime change following 9/11. The chapter concludes with a critical review of three prominent alternative explanations for Bush’s decision-making.

The Trump Administration’s Policy to Contain China in The Field of Technology

The article examines the Trump administration's policy to contain China in the field of technology. Particular attention is paid to the content of this policy, its reasons and impact on Sino-US relations. Since taking office, Trump has begun to regard China as a competitor of USA in the global science and technology field. The Trump administration has tried to prevent free technological exchanges with China. The United States’ containment policy has weakened the strategic mutual trust between China and the United States and has aggravated the tension in Sino-US relations. Despite the efforts of the United States, it failed to influence China's technological development. The conclusion of the article is that China continues to pursue an active technology policy to mitigate the negative impact of the US containment policy.