Polygenic Risk Scores to Identify CVD Risk and Tailor Therapy: Hope or Hype?

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. German ◽  
Michael D. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk

scholarly journals Risk Prediction Using Polygenic Risk Scores for Prevention of Stroke and Other Cardiovascular Diseases

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gad Abraham ◽  
Loes Rutten-Jacobs ◽  
Michael Inouye
Keyword(s):  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Monogenic Disorders ◽  
Current State ◽  
Common Genetic Variants ◽  
Artery Disease

Early prediction of risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including stroke, is a cornerstone of disease prevention. Clinical risk scores have been widely used for predicting CVD risk from known risk factors. Most CVDs have a substantial genetic component, which also has been confirmed for stroke in recent gene discovery efforts. However, the role of genetics in prediction of risk of CVD, including stroke, has been limited to testing for highly penetrant monogenic disorders. In contrast, the importance of polygenic variation, the aggregated effect of many common genetic variants across the genome with individually small effects, has become more apparent in the last 5 to 10 years, and powerful polygenic risk scores for CVD have been developed. Here we review the current state of the field of polygenic risk scores for CVD including stroke, and their potential to improve CVD risk prediction. We present findings and lessons from diseases such as coronary artery disease as these will likely be useful to inform future research in stroke polygenic risk prediction.

scholarly journals Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. e1003498
Author(s):  
Luanluan Sun ◽  
Lisa Pennells ◽  
Stephen Kaptoge ◽  
Christopher P. Nelson ◽  
Scott C. Ritchie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Predicted Risk ◽  
Conventional Risk Factors

Background Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. Methods and findings Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703–0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009–0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40–75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. Conclusions Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

scholarly journals Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Hypertension Onset and Cardiovascular Risk

Hypertension ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 1119-1127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Vaura ◽  
Anni Kauko ◽  
Karri Suvila ◽  
Aki S. Havulinna ◽  
Nina Mars ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Early Onset ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Traditional Risk Factors ◽  
Association Data

Although genetic risk scores have been used to predict hypertension, their utility in the clinical setting remains uncertain. Our study comprised N=218 792 FinnGen participants (mean age 58 years, 56% women) and N=22 624 well-phenotyped FINRISK participants (mean age 50 years, 53% women). We used public genome-wide association data to compute polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). Using time-to-event analysis, we then assessed (1) the association of BP PRSs with hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in FinnGen and (2) the improvement in model discrimination when combining BP PRSs with the validated 4- and 10-year clinical risk scores for hypertension and CVD in FINRISK. In FinnGen, compared with having a 20 to 80 percentile range PRS, a PRS in the highest 2.5% conferred 2.3-fold (95% CI, 2.2–2.4) risk of hypertension and 10.6 years (95% CI, 9.9–11.4) earlier hypertension onset. In subgroup analyses, this risk was only 1.6-fold (95% CI, 1.5–1.7) for late-onset hypertension (age ≥55 years) but 2.8-fold (95% CI, 2.6–2.9) for early-onset hypertension (age <55 years). Elevated systolic BP PRS also conferred 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.2–1.4) risk of CVD and 2.3 years (95% CI, 1.6–3.1) earlier onset. In FINRISK, systolic and diastolic BP PRSs improved clinical risk prediction of hypertension (but not CVD), increasing the C statistics by 0.7% (95% CI, 0.3–1.1). We demonstrate that genetic information improves hypertension risk prediction. BP PRSs together with traditional risk factors could improve prediction of hypertension and particularly early-onset hypertension, which confers substantial CVD risk.

scholarly journals Use of polygenic risk scores and other molecular markers to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction: prospective cohort study and modelling analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luanluan Sun ◽  
Lisa Pennells ◽  
Stephen Kaptoge ◽  
Christopher P Nelson ◽  
Gad Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Molecular Markers ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Risk Predictors

AbstractBackgroundThere is debate about the value of adding information on genetic and other molecular markers to conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk predictors.MethodsUsing data on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD from UK Biobank, we calculated measures of risk-discrimination and reclassification upon addition of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and a panel of 27 clinical biochemistry markers to a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol). We then modelled implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy after the assessment of molecular markers for a UK primary-care setting.FindingsThe C-index was 0.710 (95% CI, 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. The C-index increased by similar amounts when adding information on PRS or biochemistry markers (0.011 and 0.014, respectively; P<0.001), and it increased still further (0.022; P<0.001) when information on both was combined. Among cases and controls, continuous net reclassification improvements were about 12% and 19%, respectively, when both PRS and biochemistry markers were added. If PRS and biochemistry markers were to be assessed in the entire primary care population aged 40-75, then it could help prevent one additional CVD event for every 893 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5-10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent one additional CVD event for every 233 individuals screened. This targeted strategy could help reclassify 16% of the intermediate-risk group to the high-risk (i.e., ≥10%) category, preventing 11% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction.InterpretationAdding information on both PRS and selected biochemistry markers moderately enhanced CVD predictive accuracy and could improve primary prevention of CVD. However, our modelling suggested that targeted assessment of molecular markers among individuals at intermediate-risk would be more efficient than blanket approaches.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Cardiovascular Risk Scores and Several Markers of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in an Asymptomatic Population

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 955
Author(s):  
Ovidiu Mitu ◽  
Adrian Crisan ◽  
Simon Redwood ◽  
Ioan-Elian Cazacu-Davidescu ◽  
Ivona Mitu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Score ◽  
Subclinical Atherosclerosis ◽  
Ankle Brachial Index ◽  
Intima Media Thickness ◽  
Carotid Intima Media Thickness ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Single Center Study ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals

Background: The current cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention guidelines prioritize risk stratification by using clinical risk scores. However, subclinical atherosclerosis may rest long term undetected. This study aimed to evaluate multiple subclinical atherosclerosis parameters in relation to several CV risk scores in asymptomatic individuals. Methods: A cross-sectional, single-center study included 120 asymptomatic CVD subjects. Four CVD risk scores were computed: SCORE, Framingham, QRISK, and PROCAM. Subclinical atherosclerosis has been determined by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), pulse wave velocity (PWV), aortic and brachial augmentation indexes (AIXAo, respectively AIXbr), aortic systolic blood pressure (SBPao), and ankle-brachial index (ABI). Results: The mean age was 52.01 ± 10.73 years. For cIMT—SCORE was more sensitive; for PWV—Framingham score was more sensitive; for AIXbr—QRISK and PROCAM were more sensitive while for AIXao—QRISK presented better results. As for SBPao—SCORE presented more sensitive results. However, ABI did not correlate with any CVD risk score. Conclusions: All four CV risk scores are associated with markers of subclinical atherosclerosis in asymptomatic population, except for ABI, with specific particularities for each CVD risk score. Moreover, we propose specific cut-off values of CV risk scores that may indicate the need for subclinical atherosclerosis assessment.

scholarly journals Stress Mediating Genes in Aging, Health, and Longevity Traits: Effects of Multiple Interactions

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 286-286
Author(s):  
Anatoliy Yashin ◽  
Dequing Wu ◽  
Konstantin Arbeev ◽  
Arseniy Yashkin ◽  
Galina Gorbunova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Interaction ◽  
Genetic Interaction ◽  
Interaction Effects ◽  
Genetic Interactions ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Interaction Patterns ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Drug Candidates ◽  
Aging Health

Abstract Persistent stress of external or internal origin accelerates aging, increases risk of aging related health disorders, and shortens lifespan. Stressors activate stress response genes, and their products collectively influence traits. The variability of stressors and responses to them contribute to trait heterogeneity, which may cause the failure of clinical trials for drug candidates. The objectives of this paper are: to address the heterogeneity issue; to evaluate collective interaction effects of genetic factors on Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and longevity using HRS data; to identify differences and similarities in patterns of genetic interactions within two genders; and to compare AD related genetic interaction patterns in HRS and LOADFS data. To reach these objectives we: selected candidate genes from stress related pathways affecting AD/longevity; implemented logistic regression model with interaction term to evaluate effects of SNP-pairs on these traits for males and females; constructed the novel interaction polygenic risk scores for SNPs, which showed strong interaction potential, and evaluated effects of these scores on AD/longevity; and compared patterns of genetic interactions within the two genders and within two datasets. We found there were many genes involved in highly significant interactions that were the same and that were different within the two genders. The effects of interaction polygenic risk scores on AD were strong and highly statistically significant. These conclusions were confirmed in analyses of interaction effects on longevity trait using HRS data. Comparison of HRS to LOADFS data showed that many genes had strong interaction effects on AD in both data sets.

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