scholarly journals Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Hypertension Onset and Cardiovascular Risk

Hypertension ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 1119-1127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Vaura ◽  
Anni Kauko ◽  
Karri Suvila ◽  
Aki S. Havulinna ◽  
Nina Mars ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Early Onset ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Traditional Risk Factors ◽  
Association Data

Although genetic risk scores have been used to predict hypertension, their utility in the clinical setting remains uncertain. Our study comprised N=218 792 FinnGen participants (mean age 58 years, 56% women) and N=22 624 well-phenotyped FINRISK participants (mean age 50 years, 53% women). We used public genome-wide association data to compute polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). Using time-to-event analysis, we then assessed (1) the association of BP PRSs with hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in FinnGen and (2) the improvement in model discrimination when combining BP PRSs with the validated 4- and 10-year clinical risk scores for hypertension and CVD in FINRISK. In FinnGen, compared with having a 20 to 80 percentile range PRS, a PRS in the highest 2.5% conferred 2.3-fold (95% CI, 2.2–2.4) risk of hypertension and 10.6 years (95% CI, 9.9–11.4) earlier hypertension onset. In subgroup analyses, this risk was only 1.6-fold (95% CI, 1.5–1.7) for late-onset hypertension (age ≥55 years) but 2.8-fold (95% CI, 2.6–2.9) for early-onset hypertension (age <55 years). Elevated systolic BP PRS also conferred 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.2–1.4) risk of CVD and 2.3 years (95% CI, 1.6–3.1) earlier onset. In FINRISK, systolic and diastolic BP PRSs improved clinical risk prediction of hypertension (but not CVD), increasing the C statistics by 0.7% (95% CI, 0.3–1.1). We demonstrate that genetic information improves hypertension risk prediction. BP PRSs together with traditional risk factors could improve prediction of hypertension and particularly early-onset hypertension, which confers substantial CVD risk.

scholarly journals Risk Prediction Using Polygenic Risk Scores for Prevention of Stroke and Other Cardiovascular Diseases

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gad Abraham ◽  
Loes Rutten-Jacobs ◽  
Michael Inouye
Keyword(s):  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Monogenic Disorders ◽  
Current State ◽  
Common Genetic Variants ◽  
Artery Disease

Early prediction of risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including stroke, is a cornerstone of disease prevention. Clinical risk scores have been widely used for predicting CVD risk from known risk factors. Most CVDs have a substantial genetic component, which also has been confirmed for stroke in recent gene discovery efforts. However, the role of genetics in prediction of risk of CVD, including stroke, has been limited to testing for highly penetrant monogenic disorders. In contrast, the importance of polygenic variation, the aggregated effect of many common genetic variants across the genome with individually small effects, has become more apparent in the last 5 to 10 years, and powerful polygenic risk scores for CVD have been developed. Here we review the current state of the field of polygenic risk scores for CVD including stroke, and their potential to improve CVD risk prediction. We present findings and lessons from diseases such as coronary artery disease as these will likely be useful to inform future research in stroke polygenic risk prediction.

scholarly journals Comparisons of Polyexposure, Polygenic, and Clinical Risk Scores in Risk Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yixuan He ◽  
Chirag M Lakhani ◽  
Danielle Rasooly ◽  
Arjun K Manrai ◽  
Ioanna Tzoulaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk

OBJECTIVE: <p>Establish a polyexposure score for T2D incorporating 12 non-genetic exposure and examine whether a polyexposure and/or a polygenic risk score improves diabetes prediction beyond traditional clinical risk factors.</p> <h2><a></a>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:</h2> <p>We identified 356,621 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank of white British ancestry with no prior diagnosis of T2D and normal HbA1c levels. Using self-reported and hospital admission information, we deployed a machine learning procedure to select the most predictive and robust factors out of 111 non-genetically ascertained exposure and lifestyle variables for the polyexposure risk score (PXS) in prospective T2D. We computed the clinical risk score (CRS) and polygenic risk score (PGS) by taking a weighted sum of eight established clinical risk factors and over six million SNPs, respectively.</p> <h2><a></a>RESULTS:</h2> <p>In the study population, 7,513 had incident T2D. The C-statistics for the PGS, PXS, and CRS models were 0.709, 0.762, and 0.839, respectively. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with risk score values in the top 10% percentile versus the remaining population is 2.00, 5.90, and 9.97 for PGS, PXS, and CRS respectively. Addition of PGS and PXS to CRS improves T2D classification accuracy with a continuous net reclassification index of 15.2% and 30.1% for cases, respectively, and 7.3% and 16.9% for controls, respectively. </p> <h2><a></a>CONCLUSIONS:</h2> <p>For T2D, the PXS provides modest incremental predictive value over established clinical risk factors. The concept of PXS merits further consideration in T2D risk stratification and is likely to be useful in other chronic disease risk prediction models.</p>

scholarly journals Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. e1003498
Author(s):  
Luanluan Sun ◽  
Lisa Pennells ◽  
Stephen Kaptoge ◽  
Christopher P. Nelson ◽  
Scott C. Ritchie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Predicted Risk ◽  
Conventional Risk Factors

Background Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. Methods and findings Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703–0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009–0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40–75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. Conclusions Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

scholarly journals Epigenetic age acceleration is associated with cardiometabolic risk factors and clinical cardiovascular disease risk scores in African Americans

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farah Ammous ◽  
Wei Zhao ◽  
Scott M. Ratliff ◽  
Thomas H. Mosley ◽  
Lawrence F. Bielak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk Factors ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Epigenetic Age ◽  
Epigenetic Age Acceleration

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality among US adults. African Americans have higher burden of CVD morbidity and mortality compared to any other racial group. Identifying biomarkers for clinical risk prediction of CVD offers an opportunity for precision prevention and earlier intervention. Results Using linear mixed models, we investigated the cross-sectional association between four measures of epigenetic age acceleration (intrinsic (IEAA), extrinsic (EEAA), PhenoAge (PhenoAA), and GrimAge (GrimAA)) and ten cardiometabolic markers of hypertension, insulin resistance, and dyslipidemia in 1,100 primarily hypertensive African Americans from sibships in the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy (GENOA). We then assessed the association between epigenetic age acceleration and time to self-reported incident CVD using frailty hazard models and investigated CVD risk prediction improvement compared to models with clinical risk scores (Framingham risk score (FRS) and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk equation). After adjusting for sex and chronological age, increased epigenetic age acceleration was associated with higher systolic blood pressure (IEAA), higher pulse pressure (EEAA and GrimAA), higher fasting glucose (PhenoAA and GrimAA), higher fasting insulin (EEAA), lower low density cholesterol (GrimAA), and higher triglycerides (GrimAA). A five-year increase in GrimAA was associated with CVD incidence with a hazard ratio of 1.54 (95% CI 1.22–2.01) and remained significant after adjusting for CVD risk factors. The addition of GrimAA to risk score models improved model fit using likelihood ratio tests (P = 0.013 for FRS and P = 0.008 for ASCVD), but did not improve C statistics (P > 0.05). Net reclassification index (NRI) showed small but significant improvement in reassignment of risk categories with the addition of GrimAA to FRS (NRI: 0.055, 95% CI 0.040–0.071) and the ASCVD equation (NRI: 0.029, 95% CI 0.006–0.064). Conclusions Epigenetic age acceleration measures are associated with traditional CVD risk factors in an African-American cohort with a high prevalence of hypertension. GrimAA was associated with CVD incidence and slightly improved prediction of CVD events over clinical risk scores.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular disease risk prediction for people with type 2 diabetes in a population-based cohort and in electronic health record data

JAMIA Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jackie Szymonifka ◽  
Sarah Conderino ◽  
Christine Cigolle ◽  
Jinkyung Ha ◽  
Mohammed Kabeto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Demographic Covariates

Abstract Objective Electronic health records (EHRs) have become a common data source for clinical risk prediction, offering large sample sizes and frequently sampled metrics. There may be notable differences between hospital-based EHR and traditional cohort samples: EHR data often are not population-representative random samples, even for particular diseases, as they tend to be sicker with higher healthcare utilization, while cohort studies often sample healthier subjects who typically are more likely to participate. We investigate heterogeneities between EHR- and cohort-based inferences including incidence rates, risk factor identifications/quantifications, and absolute risks. Materials and methods This is a retrospective cohort study of older patients with type 2 diabetes using EHR from New York University Langone Health ambulatory care (NYULH-EHR, years 2009–2017) and from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS, 1995–2014) to study subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. We used the same eligibility criteria, outcome definitions, and demographic covariates/biomarkers in both datasets. We compared subsequent CVD incidence rates, hazard ratios (HRs) of risk factors, and discrimination/calibration performances of CVD risk scores. Results The estimated subsequent total CVD incidence rate was 37.5 and 90.6 per 1000 person-years since T2DM onset in HRS and NYULH-EHR respectively. HR estimates were comparable between the datasets for most demographic covariates/biomarkers. Common CVD risk scores underestimated observed total CVD risks in NYULH-EHR. Discussion and conclusion EHR-estimated HRs of demographic and major clinical risk factors for CVD were mostly consistent with the estimates from a national cohort, despite high incidences and absolute risks of total CVD outcome in the EHR samples.

scholarly journals Polygenic and clinical risk scores and their impact on age at onset of cardiometabolic diseases and common cancers

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina J. Mars ◽  
Jukka T. Koskela ◽  
Pietari Ripatti ◽  
Tuomo T.J. Kiiskinen ◽  
Aki S. Havulinna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Onset ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Age At Onset ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Clinical Risk Factor ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Breast And Prostate Cancer

ABSTRACTBackgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown promise in predicting susceptibility to common diseases. However, the extent to which PRS and clinical risk factors act jointly and identify high-risk individuals for early onset of disease is unknown.MethodsWe used large-scale biobank data (the FinnGen study; n=135,300), with up to 46 years of prospective follow-up, and the FINRISK study with standardized clinical risk factor measurements to build genome-wide PRSs with >6M variants for coronary heart disease (CHD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), atrial fibrillation (AF), and breast and prostate cancer. We evaluated their associations with first disease events, age at disease onset, and impact together with routinely used clinical risk scores for predicting future disease.ResultsCompared to the 20-80th percentiles, a PRS in the top 2.5% translated into hazard ratios (HRs) for incident disease ranging from 2.03 to 4.28 (p-values 1.96×10−59 to <1.00×10−100) and the bottom 2.5% into HRs ranging from 0.20 to 0.61. The estimated difference in age at disease onset between top and bottom 2.5% of PRSs was 6 to 13 years. Among early-onset cases, 21.3-32.9% had a PRS in the highest decile and in CHD and AF.ConclusionsThe properties of PRS were similar in all five diseases. PRS identified a considerable proportion early-onset cases, and for all ages the performance of PRS was comparable to established clinical risk scores. These findings warrant further clinical studies on application of polygenic risk information for stratified screening or for guiding lifestyle and preventive medical interventions.

scholarly journals Comparisons of Polyexposure, Polygenic, and Clinical Risk Scores in Risk Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yixuan He ◽  
Chirag M Lakhani ◽  
Danielle Rasooly ◽  
Arjun K Manrai ◽  
Ioanna Tzoulaki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk

OBJECTIVE: <p>Establish a polyexposure score for T2D incorporating 12 non-genetic exposure and examine whether a polyexposure and/or a polygenic risk score improves diabetes prediction beyond traditional clinical risk factors.</p> <h2><a></a>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:</h2> <p>We identified 356,621 unrelated individuals from the UK Biobank of white British ancestry with no prior diagnosis of T2D and normal HbA1c levels. Using self-reported and hospital admission information, we deployed a machine learning procedure to select the most predictive and robust factors out of 111 non-genetically ascertained exposure and lifestyle variables for the polyexposure risk score (PXS) in prospective T2D. We computed the clinical risk score (CRS) and polygenic risk score (PGS) by taking a weighted sum of eight established clinical risk factors and over six million SNPs, respectively.</p> <h2><a></a>RESULTS:</h2> <p>In the study population, 7,513 had incident T2D. The C-statistics for the PGS, PXS, and CRS models were 0.709, 0.762, and 0.839, respectively. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with risk score values in the top 10% percentile versus the remaining population is 2.00, 5.90, and 9.97 for PGS, PXS, and CRS respectively. Addition of PGS and PXS to CRS improves T2D classification accuracy with a continuous net reclassification index of 15.2% and 30.1% for cases, respectively, and 7.3% and 16.9% for controls, respectively. </p> <h2><a></a>CONCLUSIONS:</h2> <p>For T2D, the PXS provides modest incremental predictive value over established clinical risk factors. The concept of PXS merits further consideration in T2D risk stratification and is likely to be useful in other chronic disease risk prediction models.</p>

scholarly journals Use of polygenic risk scores and other molecular markers to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction: prospective cohort study and modelling analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luanluan Sun ◽  
Lisa Pennells ◽  
Stephen Kaptoge ◽  
Christopher P Nelson ◽  
Gad Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Molecular Markers ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Risk Predictors

AbstractBackgroundThere is debate about the value of adding information on genetic and other molecular markers to conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk predictors.MethodsUsing data on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD from UK Biobank, we calculated measures of risk-discrimination and reclassification upon addition of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and a panel of 27 clinical biochemistry markers to a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol). We then modelled implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy after the assessment of molecular markers for a UK primary-care setting.FindingsThe C-index was 0.710 (95% CI, 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. The C-index increased by similar amounts when adding information on PRS or biochemistry markers (0.011 and 0.014, respectively; P<0.001), and it increased still further (0.022; P<0.001) when information on both was combined. Among cases and controls, continuous net reclassification improvements were about 12% and 19%, respectively, when both PRS and biochemistry markers were added. If PRS and biochemistry markers were to be assessed in the entire primary care population aged 40-75, then it could help prevent one additional CVD event for every 893 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5-10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent one additional CVD event for every 233 individuals screened. This targeted strategy could help reclassify 16% of the intermediate-risk group to the high-risk (i.e., ≥10%) category, preventing 11% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction.InterpretationAdding information on both PRS and selected biochemistry markers moderately enhanced CVD predictive accuracy and could improve primary prevention of CVD. However, our modelling suggested that targeted assessment of molecular markers among individuals at intermediate-risk would be more efficient than blanket approaches.

scholarly journals Polygenic Risk Score Effectively Predicts Risk of Depression Onset in Alzheimer’s Disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suraj Upadhya ◽  
Hongliang Liu ◽  
Sheng Luo ◽  
Michael W. Lutz ◽  
Ornit Chiba-Falek
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Sex Education ◽  
Genome Wide Association Study ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Significant Performance

Abstract Introduction: Depression is a common, though heterogenous, comorbidity in late-onset Alzheimer’s Disease (LOAD) patients. In addition, individuals with depression are at greater risk to develop LOAD. In previous work, we demonstrated shared genetic etiology between depression and LOAD. Collectively, this evidence suggested interactions between depression and LOAD. However, the underpinning genetic heterogeneity of depression co-occurrence with LOAD is largely unknown.Methods: Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) genome wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics were used to create polygenic risk scores (PRS). The Religious Orders Society and Rush Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP) and National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC) datasets were utilized to assess the PRS performance in predicting depression onset in LOAD patients.Results: The developed PRS showed marginal results in standalone models for predicting depression onset in both ROSMAP (AUC=0.540) and NACC (AUC=0.534). Full models, with baseline age, sex, education, and APOEε4 allele count, showed improved prediction of depression onset (ROSMAP AUC: 0.606, NACC AUC: 0.583). In time-to-event analysis, standalone PRS models showed significant effects in ROSMAP (P=0.0051), but not in NACC cohort. Full models showed significant performance in predicting depression in LOAD for both datasets (P<0.001 for all).Discussion: This study provided new insights into the genetic factors contributing to depression onset in LOAD and advanced our knowledge of the genetics underlying the heterogeneity of depression in LOAD. The developed PRS accurately predicted LOAD patients with depressive symptoms, thus, has clinical implications including, diagnosis of LOAD patients at high-risk to develop depression for early anti-depressant treatment.

scholarly journals Polygenic Risk Score of Sporadic late Onset Alzheimer Disease Reveals a Shared Architecture with the Familial and Early Onset Forms

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge L Del-Aguila ◽  
Benjamin Saef ◽  
Kathleen Black ◽  
Maria Victoria Fernandez ◽  
John Budde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Onset ◽  
Genetic Architecture ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Age At Onset ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Risk Variants ◽  
Genome Wide ◽  
Load Risk

AbstractObjective:To determine whether the genetic architecture of sporadic late-onset Alzheimer’s Disease (sLOAD) has an effect on familial late-onset AD (fLOAD), sporadic early-onset (sEOAD) and autosomal dominant early-onset (eADAD).Methods:Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were constructed using previously identified 21 genome-wide significant loci for LOAD risk.Results:We found that there is an overlap in the genetic architecture among sEOAD, fLOAD, and sLOAD. sEOAD showed the highest odds for the PRS (OR=2.27; p=1.29×10-7), followed by fLOAD (OR=1.75; p=1.12×10-7) and sLOAD (OR=1.40; p=1.21×10-3). PRS is associated with cerebrospinal fluid ptau181-Aβ42on eADAD.Conclusion:Our analysis confirms that the genetic factors identified for sLOAD also modulate risk in fLOAD and sEOAD cohorts. Furthermore, our results suggest that the burden of these risk variants is associated with familial clustering and earlier-onset of AD. Although these variants are not associated with risk in the eADAD, they may be modulating age at onset.

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