scholarly journals Use of polygenic risk scores and other molecular markers to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction: prospective cohort study and modelling analysis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luanluan Sun ◽  
Lisa Pennells ◽  
Stephen Kaptoge ◽  
Christopher P Nelson ◽  
Gad Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Molecular Markers ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Risk Predictors

AbstractBackgroundThere is debate about the value of adding information on genetic and other molecular markers to conventional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk predictors.MethodsUsing data on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD from UK Biobank, we calculated measures of risk-discrimination and reclassification upon addition of polygenic risk scores (PRS) and a panel of 27 clinical biochemistry markers to a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., including age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol). We then modelled implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy after the assessment of molecular markers for a UK primary-care setting.FindingsThe C-index was 0.710 (95% CI, 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. The C-index increased by similar amounts when adding information on PRS or biochemistry markers (0.011 and 0.014, respectively; P<0.001), and it increased still further (0.022; P<0.001) when information on both was combined. Among cases and controls, continuous net reclassification improvements were about 12% and 19%, respectively, when both PRS and biochemistry markers were added. If PRS and biochemistry markers were to be assessed in the entire primary care population aged 40-75, then it could help prevent one additional CVD event for every 893 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5-10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent one additional CVD event for every 233 individuals screened. This targeted strategy could help reclassify 16% of the intermediate-risk group to the high-risk (i.e., ≥10%) category, preventing 11% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction.InterpretationAdding information on both PRS and selected biochemistry markers moderately enhanced CVD predictive accuracy and could improve primary prevention of CVD. However, our modelling suggested that targeted assessment of molecular markers among individuals at intermediate-risk would be more efficient than blanket approaches.

scholarly journals Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. e1003498
Author(s):  
Luanluan Sun ◽  
Lisa Pennells ◽  
Stephen Kaptoge ◽  
Christopher P. Nelson ◽  
Scott C. Ritchie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Primary Care ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Predicted Risk ◽  
Conventional Risk Factors

Background Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. Methods and findings Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703–0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009–0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40–75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. Conclusions Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

scholarly journals Risk Prediction Using Polygenic Risk Scores for Prevention of Stroke and Other Cardiovascular Diseases

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gad Abraham ◽  
Loes Rutten-Jacobs ◽  
Michael Inouye
Keyword(s):  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Monogenic Disorders ◽  
Current State ◽  
Common Genetic Variants ◽  
Artery Disease

Early prediction of risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including stroke, is a cornerstone of disease prevention. Clinical risk scores have been widely used for predicting CVD risk from known risk factors. Most CVDs have a substantial genetic component, which also has been confirmed for stroke in recent gene discovery efforts. However, the role of genetics in prediction of risk of CVD, including stroke, has been limited to testing for highly penetrant monogenic disorders. In contrast, the importance of polygenic variation, the aggregated effect of many common genetic variants across the genome with individually small effects, has become more apparent in the last 5 to 10 years, and powerful polygenic risk scores for CVD have been developed. Here we review the current state of the field of polygenic risk scores for CVD including stroke, and their potential to improve CVD risk prediction. We present findings and lessons from diseases such as coronary artery disease as these will likely be useful to inform future research in stroke polygenic risk prediction.

scholarly journals Delineating genetic and familial risk for psychopathology in the ABCD study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare E Palmer ◽  
Robert John Loughnan ◽  
Carolina Makowski ◽  
Wesley Thompson ◽  
Deanna Barch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family History ◽  
Psychiatric Disorders ◽  
Genetic Risk ◽  
Familial Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Typically Developing ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Hyperactivity Disorder ◽  
History Of ◽  
Risk Predictors

Psychiatric disorders place a huge burden on those affected and their families, as well as society. Nearly all psychiatric disorders have a heritable component and lifetime prevalence rates of several disorders are higher among first degree biological relatives of individuals with a diagnosis. Given that many psychiatric disorders have their onset in adolescence, estimating genetic risk during childhood may identify at-risk individuals for early intervention that can reduce this burden. Here we measured genetic risk for psychopathology using both polygenic risk scores (PRS) and family history in a large typically developing sample of 9-10 year old children from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) StudySM and determined associations with a large battery of behavioural phenotypes. By including all genetic risk predictors in the same model, we were able to delineate unique behavioral associations across these measures. Polygenic risk for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and depression (DEP) was associated with unique patterns of both externalizing and internalizing behaviors. Family history of conduct problems, depression and anxiety/stress additionally predicted unique behavioral variance across similar measures. These findings provide important insight into the potential predictive utility of PRS and family history in early adolescence and suggest that they may be signaling differential, additive information that could be useful for quantifying risk during development.

scholarly journals Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Hypertension Onset and Cardiovascular Risk

Hypertension ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. 1119-1127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Vaura ◽  
Anni Kauko ◽  
Karri Suvila ◽  
Aki S. Havulinna ◽  
Nina Mars ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Early Onset ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Traditional Risk Factors ◽  
Association Data

Although genetic risk scores have been used to predict hypertension, their utility in the clinical setting remains uncertain. Our study comprised N=218 792 FinnGen participants (mean age 58 years, 56% women) and N=22 624 well-phenotyped FINRISK participants (mean age 50 years, 53% women). We used public genome-wide association data to compute polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). Using time-to-event analysis, we then assessed (1) the association of BP PRSs with hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in FinnGen and (2) the improvement in model discrimination when combining BP PRSs with the validated 4- and 10-year clinical risk scores for hypertension and CVD in FINRISK. In FinnGen, compared with having a 20 to 80 percentile range PRS, a PRS in the highest 2.5% conferred 2.3-fold (95% CI, 2.2–2.4) risk of hypertension and 10.6 years (95% CI, 9.9–11.4) earlier hypertension onset. In subgroup analyses, this risk was only 1.6-fold (95% CI, 1.5–1.7) for late-onset hypertension (age ≥55 years) but 2.8-fold (95% CI, 2.6–2.9) for early-onset hypertension (age <55 years). Elevated systolic BP PRS also conferred 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.2–1.4) risk of CVD and 2.3 years (95% CI, 1.6–3.1) earlier onset. In FINRISK, systolic and diastolic BP PRSs improved clinical risk prediction of hypertension (but not CVD), increasing the C statistics by 0.7% (95% CI, 0.3–1.1). We demonstrate that genetic information improves hypertension risk prediction. BP PRSs together with traditional risk factors could improve prediction of hypertension and particularly early-onset hypertension, which confers substantial CVD risk.

scholarly journals Towards clinical utility of polygenic risk scores

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (R2) ◽  
pp. R133-R142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel A Lambert ◽  
Gad Abraham ◽  
Michael Inouye
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Family History ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Clinical Utility ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Common Diseases ◽  
History Of Disease ◽  
History Of

Abstract Prediction of disease risk is an essential part of preventative medicine, often guiding clinical management. Risk prediction typically includes risk factors such as age, sex, family history of disease and lifestyle (e.g. smoking status); however, in recent years, there has been increasing interest to include genomic information into risk models. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the effects of many genetic variants across the human genome into a single score and have recently been shown to have predictive value for multiple common diseases. In this review, we summarize the potential use cases for seven common diseases (breast cancer, prostate cancer, coronary artery disease, obesity, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease) where PRS has or could have clinical utility. PRS analysis for these diseases frequently revolved around (i) risk prediction performance of a PRS alone and in combination with other non-genetic risk factors, (ii) estimation of lifetime risk trajectories, (iii) the independent information of PRS and family history of disease or monogenic mutations and (iv) estimation of the value of adding a PRS to specific clinical risk prediction scenarios. We summarize open questions regarding PRS usability, ancestry bias and transferability, emphasizing the need for the next wave of studies to focus on the implementation and health-economic value of PRS testing. In conclusion, it is becoming clear that PRS have value in disease risk prediction and there are multiple areas where this may have clinical utility.

Symptom dimensions of major depression in a large community-based cohort

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Michael Wainberg ◽  
Peter Zhukovsky ◽  
Sean L. Hill ◽  
Daniel Felsky ◽  
Aristotle Voineskos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Major Depression ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Psychiatric Diagnoses ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Symptom Dimensions ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Large Community

Abstract Background Our understanding of major depression is complicated by substantial heterogeneity in disease presentation, which can be disentangled by data-driven analyses of depressive symptom dimensions. We aimed to determine the clinical portrait of such symptom dimensions among individuals in the community. Methods This cross-sectional study consisted of 25 261 self-reported White UK Biobank participants with major depression. Nine questions from the UK Biobank Mental Health Questionnaire encompassing depressive symptoms were decomposed into underlying factors or ‘symptom dimensions’ via factor analysis, which were then tested for association with psychiatric diagnoses and polygenic risk scores for major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. Replication was performed among 655 self-reported non-White participants, across sexes, and among 7190 individuals with an ICD-10 code for MDD from linked inpatient or primary care records. Results Four broad symptom dimensions were identified, encompassing negative cognition, functional impairment, insomnia and atypical symptoms. These dimensions replicated across ancestries, sexes and individuals with inpatient or primary care MDD diagnoses, and were also consistent among 43 090 self-reported White participants with undiagnosed self-reported depression. Every dimension was associated with increased risk of nearly every psychiatric diagnosis and polygenic risk score. However, while certain psychiatric diagnoses were disproportionately associated with specific symptom dimensions, the three polygenic risk scores did not show the same specificity of associations. Conclusions An analysis of questionnaire data from a large community-based cohort reveals four replicable symptom dimensions of depression with distinct clinical, but not genetic, correlates.

scholarly journals Dissecting clinical heterogeneity of bipolar disorder using multiple polygenic risk scores

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon J. Coombes ◽  
Matej Markota ◽  
J. John Mann ◽  
Colin Colby ◽  
Eli Stahl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Psychiatric Disorders ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Rapid Cycling ◽  
Clinical Heterogeneity ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Clinical Observations ◽  
History Of ◽  
Dsm Iv

AbstractBipolar disorder (BD) has high clinical heterogeneity, frequent psychiatric comorbidities, and elevated suicide risk. To determine genetic differences between common clinical sub-phenotypes of BD, we performed a systematic PRS analysis using multiple polygenic risk scores (PRSs) from a range of psychiatric, personality, and lifestyle traits to dissect differences in BD sub-phenotypes in two BD cohorts: the Mayo Clinic BD Biobank (N = 968) and Genetic Association Information Network (N = 1001). Participants were assessed for history of psychosis, early-onset BD, rapid cycling (defined as four or more episodes in a year), and suicide attempts using questionnaires and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. In a combined sample of 1969 bipolar cases (45.5% male), those with psychosis had higher PRS for SCZ (OR = 1.3 per S.D.; p = 3e-5) but lower PRSs for anhedonia (OR = 0.87; p = 0.003) and BMI (OR = 0.87; p = 0.003). Rapid cycling cases had higher PRS for ADHD (OR = 1.23; p = 7e-5) and MDD (OR = 1.23; p = 4e-5) and lower BD PRS (OR = 0.8; p = 0.004). Cases with a suicide attempt had higher PRS for MDD (OR = 1.26; p = 1e-6) and anhedonia (OR = 1.22; p = 2e-5) as well as lower PRS for educational attainment (OR = 0.87; p = 0.003). The observed novel PRS associations with sub-phenotypes align with clinical observations such as rapid cycling BD patients having a greater lifetime prevalence of ADHD. Our findings confirm that genetic heterogeneity underlies the clinical heterogeneity of BD and consideration of genetic contribution to psychopathologic components of psychiatric disorders may improve genetic prediction of complex psychiatric disorders.

scholarly journals A Cox-Based Risk Prediction Model for Early Detection of Cardiovascular Disease: Identification of Key Risk Factors for the Development of a 10-Year CVD Risk Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaona Jia ◽  
Mirza Mansoor Baig ◽  
Farhaan Mirza ◽  
Hamid GholamHosseini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Risk Prediction Model ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Cvd Risk

Background and Objective. Current cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk models are typically based on traditional laboratory-based predictors. The objective of this research was to identify key risk factors that affect the CVD risk prediction and to develop a 10-year CVD risk prediction model using the identified risk factors. Methods. A Cox proportional hazard regression method was applied to generate the proposed risk model. We used the dataset from Framingham Original Cohort of 5079 men and women aged 30-62 years, who had no overt symptoms of CVD at the baseline; among the selected cohort 3189 had a CVD event. Results. A 10-year CVD risk model based on multiple risk factors (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), cigarettes per day, pulse rate, and diabetes) was developed in which heart rate was identified as one of the novel risk factors. The proposed model achieved a good discrimination and calibration ability with C-index (receiver operating characteristic (ROC)) being 0.71 in the validation dataset. We validated the model via statistical and empirical validation. Conclusion. The proposed CVD risk prediction model is based on standard risk factors, which could help reduce the cost and time required for conducting the clinical/laboratory tests. Healthcare providers, clinicians, and patients can use this tool to see the 10-year risk of CVD for an individual. Heart rate was incorporated as a novel predictor, which extends the predictive ability of the past existing risk equations.

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