scholarly journals A Value Sensitive Scenario Planning Method for Adaptation to Uncertain Future Sea Level Rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Wedin ◽  
Per Wikman–Svahn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Value Sensitive Design ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
A Value ◽  
Creative Solutions ◽  
Uncertain Future

AbstractValue sensitive design (VSD) aims at creating better technology based on social and ethical values. However, VSD has not been applied to long-term and uncertain future developments, such as societal planning for climate change. This paper describes a new method that combines elements from VSD with scenario planning. The method was developed for and applied to a case study of adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in southern Sweden in a series of workshops. The participants of the workshops found that the method provided a framework for discussing long-term planning, enabled identification of essential values, challenged established planning practices, helped find creative solutions, and served as a reminder that we do not know what will happen in the future. Finally, we reflect on the limitations of the method and suggest further research on how it can be improved for value sensitive design of adaptation measures to manage uncertain future sea level rise.

scholarly journals A Holistic Framework for Evaluating Adaptation Approaches to Coastal Hazards and Sea Level Rise: A Case Study from Imperial Beach, California

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1324
Author(s):  
David Revell ◽  
Phil King ◽  
Jeff Giliam ◽  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Sarah Jenkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Over Time

Sea level rise increases community risks from erosion, wave flooding, and tides. Current management typically protects existing development and infrastructure with coastal armoring. These practices ignore long-term impacts to public trust coastal recreation and natural ecosystems. This adaptation framework models physical responses to the public beach and private upland for each adaptation strategy over time, linking physical changes in widths to damages, economic costs, and benefits from beach recreation and nature using low-lying Imperial Beach, California, as a case study. Available coastal hazard models identified community vulnerabilities, and local risk communication engagement prioritized five adaptation approaches—armoring, nourishment, living shorelines, groins, and managed retreat. This framework innovates using replacement cost as a proxy for ecosystem services normally not valued and examines a managed retreat policy approach using a public buyout and rent-back option. Specific methods and economic values used in the analysis need more research and innovation, but the framework provides a scalable methodology to guide coastal adaptation planning everywhere. Case study results suggest that coastal armoring provides the least public benefits over time. Living shoreline approaches show greater public benefits, while managed retreat, implemented sooner, provides the best long-term adaptation strategy to protect community identity and public trust resources.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in Lesser Antilles-Case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gaël Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges cause great threats to lives, properties, and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazard with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique, under present climate or considering a potential sea-level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge, up to 100 % in some cases. The non-linear interactions of sea level rise with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique, but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles, and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (10) ◽  
pp. 2597-2602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Mengel ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Katja Frieler ◽  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
Ben Marzeion ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Equilibrium Response ◽  
Semiempirical Models

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

scholarly journals Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 433
Author(s):  
Christoffer Carstens ◽  
Karin Mossberg Sonnek ◽  
Riitta Räty ◽  
Per Wikman-Svahn ◽  
Annika Carlsson-Kanyama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Legal Constraints ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
Municipal Level

The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach has successfully been used to manage uncertainties in large infrastructure projects. However, the viability of the DAPP approach for spatial planning in smaller municipal settings is not clear. This paper examines opportunities and constraints of using adaptive pathways approaches to help small municipalities plan for future sea-level rise. The methodology was based on developing a simplified DAPP-approach, which was tested in a multiple experimental case study of spatial planning projects in three municipalities in Sweden. The results show that the approach promoted vulnerability-based thinking among the end-users and generated new ideas on how to manage the uncertain long-term impacts of future sea-level rise. However, the increased understanding of uncertainties was used to justify static, rather than adaptive, solutions. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by perceived legal constraints, lack of experience of adaptive pathways, and unwillingness to prescribe actions that could prove difficult to enforce in the future. More research is needed to further understand at what planning phases dynamic policy pathway approaches work best and how current barriers in legislation, practices, mind-set, organization, and resources can be overcome.

scholarly journals Buying Time with Runnels: a Climate Adaptation Tool for Salt Marshes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice F. Besterman ◽  
Rachel W. Jakuba ◽  
Wenley Ferguson ◽  
Diana Brennan ◽  
Joseph E. Costa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Salt Marsh ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Management Interventions

AbstractA prominent form of salt marsh loss is interior conversion to open water, driven by sea level rise in interaction with human activity and other stressors. Persistent inundation drowns vegetation and contributes to open water conversion in salt marsh interiors. Runnels are shallow channels originally developed in Australia to control mosquitoes by draining standing water, but recently used to restore marsh vegetation in the USA. Documentation on runnel efficacy is not widely available; yet over the past 10 years dozens of coastal adaptation projects in the northeastern USA have incorporated runnels. To better understand the efficacy of runnels used for restoration, we organized a workshop of 70 experts and stakeholders in coastal resource management. Through the workshop we developed a collective understanding of how runnels might be used to slow or reverse open water conversion, and identified unresolved questions. In this paper we present a synthesis of workshop discussions and results from a promising case study in which vegetation was restored at a degraded marsh within a few years of runnel construction. Despite case study outcomes, key questions remain on long-term runnel efficacy in marshes differing in elevation, tidal range, and management history. Runnel construction is unlikely to improve long-term marsh resilience alone, as it cannot address underlying causes of open water conversion. As a part of holistic climate planning that includes other management interventions, runnels may “buy time” for salt marshes to respond to management action, or adapt to sea level rise.

scholarly journals Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2209-2225 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Wadey ◽  
J. M. Brown ◽  
I. D. Haigh ◽  
T. Dolphin ◽  
P. Wisse
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Study Sites

Abstract. The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

scholarly journals Optimal temperature overshoot profile found by limiting global sea level rise as a lower-cost climate target

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. eaaw9490
Author(s):  
Chao Li ◽  
Hermann Held ◽  
Sascha Hokamp ◽  
Jochem Marotzke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Optimal Temperature ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation Cost ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Limiting Surface ◽  
Allowable Temperature

The global temperature targets of limiting surface warming to below 2.0°C or even to 1.5°C have been widely accepted through the Paris Agreement. However, limiting surface warming has previously been proven insufficient to control sea level rise (SLR). Here, we explore a sea level target that is closer to coastal planning and associated adaptation measures than a temperature target. We find that a sea level target provides an optimal temperature overshoot profile through a physical constraint of SLR. The allowable temperature overshoot leads to lower mitigation costs and more effective long-term sea level stabilization compared to a temperature target leading to the same SLR by 2200. With the same mitigation cost as the temperature target, a SLR target could bring surface warming back to the targeted temperatures within this century, lead to a reduction of surface warming of the next century, and reduce and slow down SLR in the centuries thereafter.

scholarly journals Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 866
Author(s):  
Lilai Xu ◽  
Shengping Ding ◽  
Vilas Nitivattananon ◽  
Jianxiong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Flood Impact

While land reclaimed from the sea meets the land demand for coastal development, it simultaneously causes socio-economic systems to be prone to coastal flooding induced by storm surges and sea-level rise. Current studies have seldom linked reclamation with coastal flood impact assessment, hindering the provision of accurate information to support coastal flood risk management and adaptation. This study, using Xiamen, China as a case study, incorporates the spatiotemporal dynamics of reclamation into a coastal flood impact model, in order to investigate the long-term influence of reclamation activities on coastal flood inundation and the consequent exposure of the population to coastal flooding. We find that rapid population growth, continual economic development and urbanization drive a substantial logarithmic increase in coastal reclamation. Historical and future expansions of seaward land reclamation are found to cause dramatic surges in the expected annual inundation (EAI) and the expected annual population (EAP) exposed to coastal flooding. In Xiamen, EAI is estimated to increase by 440.2% from 1947 to 2035, owing to continuing land reclamation. Consequently, the population living in the flooded area has also increased sharply: the EAP of total population is estimated to rise from 0.8% in 1947 to 4.7% in 2035, where reclamation contributes over 80% of this increase. Moreover, a future 10 cm sea-level rise in 2035 will lead to extra 5.73% and 8.15% increases in EAI and EAP, respectively, and is expected to cause massive permanent submersion in the new reclamation zone. Our findings emphasize an integration of hard structures and nature-based solutions for building resilient coasts.

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