scholarly journals Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Vanselow ◽  
Lukas Halekotte ◽  
Ulrike Feudel
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Evolutionary System ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

AbstractThe transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

scholarly journals Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Vanselow ◽  
Lukas Halekotte ◽  
Ulrike Feudel
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Evolutionary System ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

Today, the transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how \indirect evolutionary rescue - due to the rapid evolution of a predator's trait - can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Feudel ◽  
Anna Vanselow ◽  
Lukas Halekotte
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

<p>Nowadays, populations are faced with unprecedented rates of global climate change, habitat fragmentation and destruction causing an accelerating conversion of their living conditions. Critical transitions in ecosystems, often called regime shifts, lead to sudden shifts in the dominance of species or even to species’ extinction and decline of biodiversity. Many regime shifts are explained as transitions between alternative stable states caused by (i) certain bifurcations when certain parameters or external forcing cross critical thresholds, (ii) fluctuations or (iii) extreme events. We address a fourth mechanism which does not require alternative states but instead, the system performs a large excursion away from its usual behaviour when environmental  conditions change too fast. During this excursion, the system can embrace dangerously, unexpected states. We demonstrate that predator-prey systems can exhibit a population collapse if the rate of environmental change crosses a certain critical rate. In reference to this critical rate of change which has to be surpassed, this transition is called rate-induced tipping (R-tipping). A further difference to the other three tipping mechanisms is that R-tipping mainly manifests during the transient dynamics – the dynamics before the long-term dynamics are reached.  Whether a system will track its usual state or will tip with the consequence of a possible extinction of a species depends crucially on the time scale relations between the ecological timescale and the time scale of environmental change as well as the initial condition. However, populations have the ability to respond to environmental change due to rapid evolution. Employing an eco-evolutionary model we show how such kind of adaptation can prevent rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems. The corresponding mechanism, called evolutionary rescue, introduces a third timescale which needs to be taken into account. Only a large genetic variation within a population reflecting rapid evolution would be able to successfully counteract an overcritically fast environmental change.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Genomic signatures of evolutionary rescue in bats surviving white-nose syndrome

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A. Gignoux-Wolfsohn ◽  
Malin L. Pinsky ◽  
Kathleen Kerwin ◽  
Carl Herzog ◽  
MacKenzie Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Genomic Signatures ◽  
White Nose Syndrome ◽  
Multiple Loci ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Soft Selection ◽  
Little Brown Bat

AbstractRapid evolution of advantageous traits following abrupt environmental change can help populations grow and avoid extinction through evolutionary rescue. Here, we provide the first genetic evidence for rapid evolution in bat populations affected by white-nose syndrome (WNS). By comparing genetic samples from before and after little brown bat populations were decimated by WNS, we identified signatures of soft selection on standing genetic variation. This selection occurred at multiple loci in genes linked to hibernation behavior rather than immune function, suggesting that differences in hibernation strategy have allowed these bats to survive infection with WNS. Through these findings, we suggest that evolutionary rescue can be a conservationrelevant process even in slowly reproducing taxa threatened with extinction.

scholarly journals Predicting behavioural responses to novel organisms: state-dependent detection theory

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1847) ◽  
pp. 20162108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pete C. Trimmer ◽  
Sean M. Ehlman ◽  
Andrew Sih
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Signal Detection Theory ◽  
Novel Species ◽  
Detection Theory ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Behavioural Responses ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Optimal Thresholds ◽  
Adaptive Thresholds

Human activity alters natural habitats for many species. Understanding variation in animals' behavioural responses to these changing environments is critical. We show how signal detection theory can be used within a wider framework of state-dependent modelling to predict behavioural responses to a major environmental change: novel, exotic species. We allow thresholds for action to be a function of reserves, and demonstrate how optimal thresholds can be calculated. We term this framework ‘state-dependent detection theory’ (SDDT). We focus on behavioural and fitness outcomes when animals continue to use formerly adaptive thresholds following environmental change. In a simple example, we show that exposure to novel animals which appear dangerous—but are actually safe—(e.g. ecotourists) can have catastrophic consequences for ‘prey’ (organisms that respond as if the new organisms are predators), significantly increasing mortality even when the novel species is not predatory. SDDT also reveals that the effect on reproduction can be greater than the effect on lifespan. We investigate factors that influence the effect of novel organisms, and address the potential for behavioural adjustments (via evolution or learning) to recover otherwise reduced fitness. Although effects of environmental change are often difficult to predict, we suggest that SDDT provides a useful route ahead.

scholarly journals Perturbation theory for dual semigroups II. Time-dependent perturbations in the sun-reflexive case

1988 ◽  
Vol 109 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 145-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ph. Clément ◽  
O. Diekmann ◽  
M. Gyllenberg ◽  
H. J. A. M. Heijmans ◽  
H. R. Thieme
Keyword(s):  
Banach Space ◽  
Functional Differential Equations ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Evolutionary System ◽  
Strongly Continuous Semigroups ◽  
Structured Population ◽  
Variation Of Constants ◽  
Retarded Functional Differential Equations ◽  
Functional Differential ◽  
Age Structured

SynopsisWe consider time-dependent perturbations of generators of strongly continuous semigroups on a Banach space. The perturbations map the Banach space into a bigger space, which is the second dual of the original space in a specific semigroup sense. Using the theory of dual semigroups we show that the solutions of a generalised variation-of-constants formuladefine an evolutionary system. We investigate continuity and differentiability propertiesof this evolutionary system and its dual system and examine in what sense the perturbed generator and its adjoint generate these evolutionary systems. It is shown that the results apply naturally to retarded functional differential equations and age structured population dynamics.

scholarly journals Obligate mutualistic cooperation limits evolvability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedikt Pauli ◽  
Leonardo Oña ◽  
Marita Hermann ◽  
Christian Kost
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Amino Acids ◽  
Amino Acid ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Selection Experiment ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Darwinian Fitness ◽  
Mutualistic Interaction ◽  
Interaction Partners ◽  
Outstanding Question

AbstractCooperative mutualisms are widespread in nature and play fundamental roles in many ecosystems. Due to the often obligate nature of these interactions, the Darwinian fitness of the participating individuals is not only determined by the information encoded in their own genomes, but also the traits and capabilities of their corresponding interaction partners. Thus, a major outstanding question is how obligate cooperative mutualisms affect the ability of organisms to respond to environmental change with evolutionary adaptation. Here we address this issue using a mutualistic cooperation between two auxotrophic genotypes of Escherichia coli that reciprocally exchange costly amino acids. Amino acid-supplemented monocultures and unsupplemented cocultures were exposed to stepwise increasing concentrations of different antibiotics. This selection experiment revealed that metabolically interdependent bacteria were generally less able to adapt to environmental stress than autonomously growing strains. Moreover, obligate cooperative mutualists frequently regained metabolic autonomy, thus resulting in a collapse of the mutualistic interaction. Together, our results identify a limited evolvability as a significant evolutionary cost that individuals have to pay when entering into an obligate mutualistic cooperation.

scholarly journals More pests but less treatments: ambivalent effect of landscape complexity on Conservation Biological Control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrizia Zamberletti ◽  
Khadija Sabir ◽  
Thomas Opitz ◽  
Olivier Bonnefon ◽  
Edith Gabriel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biological Control ◽  
Landscape Structure ◽  
Agricultural Landscape ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Conservation Biological Control ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Landscape Complexity ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractIn agricultural landscapes, the amount and organization of crops and semi-natural habitats (SNH) have the potential to promote a bundle of ecosystem services due to their influence on ecological community at multiple spatio-temporal scales. SNH are relatively undisturbed and are often source of complementary resources and refuges, supporting more diverse and abundant natural pest enemies. However, the nexus of SNH proportion and organization with pest suppression is not trivial. It is thus crucial to understand how the behavior of pest and auxiliary species, the underlying landscape structure, and their interaction may influence conservation biological control (CBC). Here, we develop a generative stochastic landscape model to simulate realistic agricultural landscape compositions and configurations of fields and linear elements. Generated landscapes are used as spatial support over which we simulate a spatially explicit predator-prey dynamic model. We find that SNH boost predator population, but predator movement from hedges to fields is fundamental for an efficient pest regulation by auxiliaries and to decrease pesticide treatments. Moreover landscape elements may lead to different effects on pest reduction depending on the considered scale. Integration of species behaviors and traits with landscape structure at multiple scales are needed to provide useful insights for CBC.

scholarly journals Evolution and seed dormancy shape plant genotypic structure through a successional cycle

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (34) ◽  
pp. e2026212118
Author(s):  
Anurag A. Agrawal ◽  
Amy P. Hastings ◽  
John L. Maron
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Life History ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Seed Dormancy ◽  
Life History Traits ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Insect Herbivory ◽  
Oenothera Biennis ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact

Dormancy has repeatedly evolved in plants, animals, and microbes and is hypothesized to facilitate persistence in the face of environmental change. Yet previous experiments have not tracked demography and trait evolution spanning a full successional cycle to ask whether early bouts of natural selection are later reinforced or erased during periods of population dormancy. In addition, it is unclear how well short-term measures of fitness predict long-term genotypic success for species with dormancy. Here, we address these issues using experimental field populations of the plant Oenothera biennis, which evolved over five generations in plots exposed to or protected from insect herbivory. While populations existed above ground, there was rapid evolution of defensive and life-history traits, but populations lost genetic diversity and crashed as succession proceeded. After >5 y of seed dormancy, we triggered germination from the seedbank and genotyped >3,000 colonizers. Resurrected populations showed restored genetic diversity that reduced earlier responses to selection and pushed population phenotypes toward the starting conditions of a decade earlier. Nonetheless, four defense and life-history traits remained differentiated in populations with insect suppression compared with controls. These findings capture key missing elements of evolution during ecological cycles and demonstrate the impact of dormancy on future evolutionary responses to environmental change.

scholarly journals Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip B. Greenspoon ◽  
Hamish G. Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Current Theory ◽  
Species At Risk ◽  
Adaptive Genetic Variation ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Numerous Species ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

Rapid environmental changes are putting numerous species at risk of extinction. For migration-limited species, persistence depends on either phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation (evolutionary rescue). Current theory on evolutionary rescue typically assumes linear environmental change. Yet accelerating environmental change may pose a bigger threat. Here, we present a model of a species encountering an environment with accelerating or decelerating change, to which it can adapt through evolution or phenotypic plasticity (within-generational or transgenerational). We show that unless either form of plasticity is sufficiently strong or adaptive genetic variation is sufficiently plentiful, accelerating or decelerating environmental change increases extinction risk compared to linear environmental change for the same mean rate of environmental change.

Business Cycles in a Three-sector Growth Model with Portfolio Equilibrium between Land, Gold and Capital

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-196
Author(s):  
Wei-Bin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Economic Foundation

This study generalises a growth model proposed by Zhang (2016) through allowing all the time-dependent variables to be time-dependent. Zhang’s model deals with dynamic interdependence between capital accumulation and environmental change, with portfolio equilibrium among land, gold and physical wealth in a multi-sector general equilibrium framework. The model explains the dynamics of prices, rents and distribution of land, gold, physical wealth and environmental change on the basis of micro-economic foundation. This article generalises the model to explain business cycles due to different exogenous shocks. We simulate the motion of the economy and conduct comparative dynamic analysis to demonstrate business cycles due to periodic oscillations in the propensity to use gold, the propensity to consume housing, the propensity to consume industrial goods, the propensity to consume agricultural goods, the propensity to save, and the tax rate on the consumption of industrial goods. JEL Classification: O41, D41, E32

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