Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Feudel ◽  
Anna Vanselow ◽  
Lukas Halekotte
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

<p>Nowadays, populations are faced with unprecedented rates of global climate change, habitat fragmentation and destruction causing an accelerating conversion of their living conditions. Critical transitions in ecosystems, often called regime shifts, lead to sudden shifts in the dominance of species or even to species’ extinction and decline of biodiversity. Many regime shifts are explained as transitions between alternative stable states caused by (i) certain bifurcations when certain parameters or external forcing cross critical thresholds, (ii) fluctuations or (iii) extreme events. We address a fourth mechanism which does not require alternative states but instead, the system performs a large excursion away from its usual behaviour when environmental  conditions change too fast. During this excursion, the system can embrace dangerously, unexpected states. We demonstrate that predator-prey systems can exhibit a population collapse if the rate of environmental change crosses a certain critical rate. In reference to this critical rate of change which has to be surpassed, this transition is called rate-induced tipping (R-tipping). A further difference to the other three tipping mechanisms is that R-tipping mainly manifests during the transient dynamics – the dynamics before the long-term dynamics are reached.  Whether a system will track its usual state or will tip with the consequence of a possible extinction of a species depends crucially on the time scale relations between the ecological timescale and the time scale of environmental change as well as the initial condition. However, populations have the ability to respond to environmental change due to rapid evolution. Employing an eco-evolutionary model we show how such kind of adaptation can prevent rate-induced tipping in predator-prey systems. The corresponding mechanism, called evolutionary rescue, introduces a third timescale which needs to be taken into account. Only a large genetic variation within a population reflecting rapid evolution would be able to successfully counteract an overcritically fast environmental change.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Vanselow ◽  
Lukas Halekotte ◽  
Ulrike Feudel
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Evolutionary System ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

AbstractThe transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

scholarly journals Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Vanselow ◽  
Lukas Halekotte ◽  
Ulrike Feudel
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Change ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Transient Dynamics ◽  
Predator Population ◽  
Evolutionary Adaptation ◽  
Evolutionary System ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue

Today, the transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how \indirect evolutionary rescue - due to the rapid evolution of a predator's trait - can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

scholarly journals Geometric Analysis of Regime Shifts in Coral Reef Communities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W. Tekwa ◽  
Lisa C. McManus ◽  
Ariel Greiner ◽  
Madhavi A. Colton ◽  
Michael S. Webster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Geometric Analysis ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
State Transitions ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Species Dominance ◽  
Community Grazing

AbstractCoral reefs are among the many communities believed to exhibit regime shifts between alternative stable states, single-species dominance, and coexistence. Proposed drivers of regime shifts include changes in grazing, spatial clustering, and ocean temperature. Here we distill the dynamic regimes of coral-macroalgal interaction into a three-dimensional geometry, akin to thermodynamic phase diagrams of state transitions, to facilitate analysis. Specific regime-shifting forces can be understood as bifurcation vectors through the cubic regime geometry. This geometric perspective allows us to understand multiple forces simultaneously in terms of the stability and persistence of interacting species. For example, in a coral-macroalgae community, grazing on macroalgae can lead to alternative stable states when there is no spatial clustering (e.g., high habitat connectivity). However, with spatial clustering, grazing can lead to coexistence because of elevated local intraspecific competition. The geometrical analysis of regime shifts is applicable to any two-species communities and can help conservation efforts navigate complexity and abrupt changes.

scholarly journals Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (40) ◽  
pp. 12327-12331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuval R. Zelnik ◽  
Ehud Meron ◽  
Golan Bel
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Spatially Extended ◽  
Pattern Forming ◽  
Water Vegetation

Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions—regime shifts—are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water–vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.

scholarly journals Genomic signatures of evolutionary rescue in bats surviving white-nose syndrome

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A. Gignoux-Wolfsohn ◽  
Malin L. Pinsky ◽  
Kathleen Kerwin ◽  
Carl Herzog ◽  
MacKenzie Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variation ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Rapid Evolution ◽  
Genomic Signatures ◽  
White Nose Syndrome ◽  
Multiple Loci ◽  
Evolutionary Rescue ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Soft Selection ◽  
Little Brown Bat

AbstractRapid evolution of advantageous traits following abrupt environmental change can help populations grow and avoid extinction through evolutionary rescue. Here, we provide the first genetic evidence for rapid evolution in bat populations affected by white-nose syndrome (WNS). By comparing genetic samples from before and after little brown bat populations were decimated by WNS, we identified signatures of soft selection on standing genetic variation. This selection occurred at multiple loci in genes linked to hibernation behavior rather than immune function, suggesting that differences in hibernation strategy have allowed these bats to survive infection with WNS. Through these findings, we suggest that evolutionary rescue can be a conservationrelevant process even in slowly reproducing taxa threatened with extinction.

scholarly journals Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 (1659) ◽  
pp. 20130262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Gårdmark ◽  
Michele Casini ◽  
Magnus Huss ◽  
Anieke van Leeuwen ◽  
Joakim Hjelm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Prey Availability ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Ecosystem Recovery ◽  
Piscivorous Fish ◽  
Combining Data

Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.

scholarly journals Multiple stage hydra effect in a stage-structured prey-predator model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel IS Costa ◽  
Lucas dos Anjos ◽  
Pedro V Esteves
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Predator Prey Model ◽  
Hydra Effect ◽  
Time Stage ◽  
Numerical Bifurcation ◽  
Predator Model

In this work, we show by means of numerical bifurcation that two alternative stable states exhibit a hydra effect in a continuous-time stage-structured predator-prey model. We denote this behavior as a stage multiple hydra effect. This concomitant effect can have significant implications in population dynamics as well as in population management.

scholarly journals Persistent Clones and Local Seed Recruitment Contribute to the Resilience of Enhalus acoroides Populations Under Disturbance

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasper Dierick ◽  
Thi Thuy Hang Phan ◽  
Quang Doc Luong ◽  
Ludwig Triest
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Seedling Recruitment ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Alternative Stable States ◽  
Seagrass Species ◽  
Stable States ◽  
Seagrass Meadows ◽  
Enhalus Acoroides ◽  
South Central

Human-induced land use in coastal areas is one of the main threats for seagrass meadows globally causing eutrophication and sedimentation. These environmental stressors induce sudden ecosystem shifts toward new alternative stable states defined by lower seagrass richness and abundance. Enhalus acoroides, a large-sized tropical seagrass species, appears to be more resistant toward environmental change compared to coexisting seagrass species. We hypothesize that reproductive strategy and the extent of seedling recruitment of E. acoroides are altered under disturbance and contribute to the persistence and resilience of E. acoroides meadows. In this research, we studied eight populations of E. acoroides in four lagoons along the South Central Coast of Vietnam using 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci. We classified land use in 6 classes based on Sentinel-2 L2A images and determined the effect of human-induced land use at different spatial scales on clonal richness and structure, fine-scale genetic structure and genetic diversity. No evidence of population size reductions due to disturbance was found, however, lagoons were strongly differentiated and may act as barriers to gene flow. The proportion and size of clones were significantly higher in populations of surrounding catchments with larger areas of agriculture, urbanization and aquaculture. We postulate that large resistant genets contribute to the resilience of E. acoroides meadows under high levels of disturbance. Although the importance of clonal growth increases with disturbance, sexual reproduction and the subsequent recruitment of seedlings remains an essential strategy for the persistence of populations of E. acoroides and should be prioritized in conservation measures to ensure broad-scale and long-term resilience toward future environmental change.

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