scholarly journals Epidemic spreading and control strategies in spatial modular network

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bnaya Gross ◽  
Shlomo Havlin

AbstractEpidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the susceptible-infected-recovered model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels between cities are less and usually directly connect only a few nearest neighbor cities in a two-dimensional plane. We find that the model experience two epidemic transitions. The first lower threshold represents a local epidemic spread within a city but not to the entire country and the second higher threshold represents a global epidemic in the entire country. Based on our analytical solution we proposed several control strategies and how to optimize them. We also show that while control strategies can successfully control the disease, early actions are essentials to prevent the disease global spread.

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Brockmann

AbstractThe emergence and global spread of human infectious diseases has become one of the most serious public health threats of the 21st century. Sophisticated computer simulations have become a key tool for understanding and predicting disease spread on a global scale. Combining theoretical insights from nonlinear dynamics, stochastic processes and complex network theory these computational models are becoming increasingly important in the design of efficient mitigation and control strategies and for public health in general.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leiming Zhang ◽  
Amanda Prorok ◽  
Subhrajit Bhattacharya

We consider a pursuit-evasion problem with a heterogeneous team of multiple pursuers and multiple evaders. Although both the pursuers and the evaders are aware of each others’ control and assignment strategies, they do not have exact information about the other type of agents’ location or action. Using only noisy on-board sensors the pursuers (or evaders) make probabilistic estimation of positions of the evaders (or pursuers). Each type of agent use Markov localization to update the probability distribution of the other type. A search-based control strategy is developed for the pursuers that intrinsically takes the probability distribution of the evaders into account. Pursuers are assigned using an assignment algorithm that takes redundancy (i.e., an excess in the number of pursuers than the number of evaders) into account, such that the total or maximum estimated time to capture the evaders is minimized. In this respect we assume the pursuers to have clear advantage over the evaders. However, the objective of this work is to use assignment strategies that minimize the capture time. This assignment strategy is based on a modified Hungarian algorithm as well as a novel algorithm for determining assignment of redundant pursuers. The evaders, in order to effectively avoid the pursuers, predict the assignment based on their probabilistic knowledge of the pursuers and use a control strategy to actively move away from those pursues. Our experimental evaluation shows that the redundant assignment algorithm performs better than an alternative nearest-neighbor based assignment algorithm1.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gengpei Zhang ◽  
Xiongding Liu

The coronavirus (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease that emerged in the late December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It caused a worldwide outbreak and a major threat to global health. It is important to design prediction and control strategies to restrain its exploding. In this study, a hybrid intelligent model is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19. First, considering the effect of control measures, such as government investment, media publicity, medical treatment, and law enforcement in epidemic spreading. Then, the infection rates are optimized by genetic algorithm (GA) and a modified susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered (SIQR) epidemic spreading model is proposed. In addition, the long short-term memory (LSTM) is imbedded into the SIQR model to design the hybrid intelligent model to further optimize other parameters of the system model, which can obtain the optimal predictive model and control measures. Simulation results show that the proposed hybrid intelligence algorithm has good predictive ability. This study provide a reliable model to predict cases of infection and death, and reasonable suggestion to control COVID-19.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Poremski ◽  
Sandra Henrietta Subner ◽  
Grace Lam Fong Kin ◽  
Raveen Dev Ram Dev ◽  
Mok Yee Ming ◽  
...  

The Institute of Mental Health in Singapore continues to attempt to prevent the introduction of COVID-19, despite community transmission. Essential services are maintained and quarantine measures are currently unnecessary. To help similar organizations, strategies are listed along three themes: sustaining essential services, preventing infection, and managing human and consumable resources.


1989 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-477
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Nutt

Abstract Based on discussions in workshop sessions, several recurring themes became evident with respect to the optimization and control of petroleum refinery wastewater treatment systems to achieve effective removal of toxic contaminants. It was apparent that statistical process control (SPC) techniques are finding more widespread use and have been found to be effective. However, the implementation of real-time process control strategies in petroleum refinery wastewater treatment systems is in its infancy. Considerable effort will need to be expended to demonstrate the practicality of on-line sensors, and the utility of automated process control in petroleum refinery wastewater treatment systems. This paper provides a summary of the discussions held at the workshop.


Author(s):  
Ivan Herreros

This chapter discusses basic concepts from control theory and machine learning to facilitate a formal understanding of animal learning and motor control. It first distinguishes between feedback and feed-forward control strategies, and later introduces the classification of machine learning applications into supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning problems. Next, it links these concepts with their counterparts in the domain of the psychology of animal learning, highlighting the analogies between supervised learning and classical conditioning, reinforcement learning and operant conditioning, and between unsupervised and perceptual learning. Additionally, it interprets innate and acquired actions from the standpoint of feedback vs anticipatory and adaptive control. Finally, it argues how this framework of translating knowledge between formal and biological disciplines can serve us to not only structure and advance our understanding of brain function but also enrich engineering solutions at the level of robot learning and control with insights coming from biology.


Water Policy ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 423-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Wu ◽  
Tong Qi ◽  
Dan Li ◽  
Huijuan Yang ◽  
Guoqing Liu ◽  
...  

The surface water of 10 major river systems across China has been under intermediate pollution with striking eutrophication problems in major lakes (reservoirs). More data from the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China showed that underground water in 57% of monitoring sites across Chinese cities was polluted or extremely polluted. Rural water pollution, the rising number of incidents of industrial pollution, outdated sewerage systems, and the overuse of pesticides and chemical fertilizers also endanger the health of rural inhabitants in China. Nearly 0.2 billion rural residents could not use drinking water in accordance with the national standard, and there were reports of ‘cancer villages' and food-borne diseases (cancer village refers to a village where a certain proportion of its inhabitants suffer from the same kind of cancer or where there is a hike in cancer incidence in that area). This study aims to raise awareness of the prevention and control of water pollution and to propose a set of national research and policy initiatives for the future safety of the water environment in China.


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