scholarly journals Comprehensive study of the wet and dry spells and their extremes in the Mediterranean climate basin Northern Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Mathlouthi ◽  
Fethi Lebdi
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Method ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Northern Tunisia ◽  
The Past ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Threshold ◽  
Ichkeul Lake

Abstract Abstract In agriculture, the characterization of dry spells is essential whether it is to calibrate the water needs of crops or the flow rates of rivers. This study seeks to develop a discretization of dry and wet spells on a monthly scale while evaluating the risk of extremes using the renewal wet-dry spell model. This model consists of defining the wet spell according a negligible precipitation threshold. The structure of the model is that all parameters of the climate cycle, including its length, are random variables. To study the trend of the parameters we use the Mann–Kendall test, while the magnitude is evaluated by the Sen’s estimation method. The approach is applied to Ichkeul Lake basin in northern Tunisia to demonstrate its capacity. This region is of great agricultural and water importance, although it holds six large dams. The results show that the duration of the dry and wet spells reach’s, respectively, 49 days and 17 days. The maximum dry spell was 49 days in 1982. The Mann–Kendall test revealed three stations with significant positive trend of the monthly extreme dry spell length (at March) located in south and east of the basin. The trend analysis of the seasonal rainfall number showed one station with significant negative trend in east and one station with significant negative trend in the center of the basin. Results indicated that no significant changes in the start and end of rainy season have occurred over the past years. But a great relation with a subsequent length exists. The results of this research assist farmers and managers in establishing drought management plans. It allow, among other things, to calibrate simulation models for a more realistic management of water reservoirs. It also makes it possible to plan irrigations on a more different basis from that of observations made at regular time intervals. Highlights We analyze the trends of the drought in Ichkeul lake basin, Northern Tunisia, characterized from the daily rainfall data of five stations. The alternating wet-dry spell model and a precipitation threshold value are used to define the rainfall/dry event. The Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s estimation method were used to analyze the possible trends and the magnitude of variables analyzed, respectively. The results show an increasing trend of maximum monthly dry spells. No significant changes in the start and end of rainy season have occurred over the past years. These analyses provide useful information for science and society and make it possible to minimize unexpected damage due to long dry spells and to have effective and efficient planning for various stakeholders.

scholarly journals Estimating extreme dry spell risk in Ichkeul Lake Basin (Northern Tunisia): a comparative analysis of annual maxima series with a Gumbel distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 241-248
Author(s):  
Majid Mathlouthi ◽  
Fethi Lebdi
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Climatic Variable ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Northern Tunisia ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Ichkeul Lake ◽  
Threshold Amount ◽  
Annual Maximum Series

Abstract. This paper analyses a 42 year time series of daily precipitation in Ichkeul Lake Basin (northern Tunisia) in order to predict extreme dry-spell risk. Dry events are considered as a sequence of dry days separated by rainfall events from each other. Thus the rainy season is defined as a series of rainfall and subsequent dry events. Rainfall events are defined as the uninterrupted sequence of rainy days, when at last on one day more than a threshold amount of rainfall has been observed. A comparison of observed and estimated maximum dry events (42 year return period) showed that Gumbel distribution fitted to annual maximum series gives better results than the exponential (E) distribution combined with partial duration series (PDS). Indeed, the classical Gumbel approach slightly underestimated the empirical duration of dry events. The AMS–G approach was successfully applied in the study of extreme hydro-climatic variable values. The results reported here could be applied in estimating climatic drought risks in other geographical areas.

scholarly journals Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilinuer Alifujiang ◽  
Jilili Abuduwaili ◽  
Balati Maihemuti ◽  
Bilal Emin ◽  
Michael Groll
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Innovative Trend Analysis ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Increasing Trends

The analysis of various characteristics and trends of precipitation is an essential task to improve the utilization of water resources. Lake Issyk-Kul basin is an upper alpine catchment, which is more susceptible to the effects of climate variability, and identifying rainfall variations has vital importance for water resource planning and management in the lake basin. The well-known approaches linear regression, Şen’s slope, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall trend tests are applied frequently to try to identify trend variations, especially in rainfall, in most literature around the world. Recently, a newly developed method of Şen-innovative trend analysis (ITA) provides some advantages of visual-graphical illustrations and the identification of trends, which is one of the main focuses in this article. This study obtained the monthly precipitation data (between 1951 and 2012) from three meteorological stations (Balykchy, Cholpon-Ata, and Kyzyl-Suu) surrounding the Lake Issyk-Kul, and investigated the trends of precipitation variability by applying the ITA method. For comparison purposes, the traditional Mann–Kendall trend test also used the same time series. The main results of this study include the following. (1) According to the Mann-Kendall trend test, the precipitation of all months at the Balykchy station showed a positive trend (except in January (Zc = −0.784) and July (Zc = 0.079)). At the Cholpon-Ata and Kyzyl-Suu stations, monthly precipitation (with the same month of multiple years averaged) indicated a decreasing trend in January, June, August, and November. At the monthly scale, significant increasing trends (Zc > Z0.10 = 1.645) were detected in February and October for three stations. (2) The ITA method indicated that the rising trends were seen in 16 out of 36 months at the three stations, while six months showed decreasing patterns for “high” monthly precipitation. According to the “low” monthly precipitations, 14 months had an increasing trend, and four months showed a decreasing trend. Through the application of the ITA method (January, March, and August at Balykchy; December at Cholpon-Ata; and July and December at Kyzyl-Suu), there were some significant increasing trends, but the Mann-Kendall test found no significant trends. The significant trend occupies 19.4% in the Mann-Kendall test and 36.1% in the ITA method, which indicates that the ITA method displays more positive significant trends than Mann–Kendall Zc. (3) Compared with the classical Mann-Kendall trend results, the ITA method has some advantages. This approach allows more detailed interpretations about trend detection, which has benefits for identifying hidden variation trends of precipitation and the graphical illustration of the trend variability of extreme events, such as “high” and “low” values of monthly precipitation. In contrast, these cannot be discovered by applying traditional methods.

scholarly journals Estimation of dry events duration in Northern Tunisia – Analysis of extremes trends

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 195-201
Author(s):  
Majid Mathlouthi ◽  
Fethi Lebdi
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Northern Tunisia ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Agricultural Potential ◽  
Anderson Darling

Abstract. Modeling of extremes dry spells in Northern Tunisia, in order to detect the severity of the phenomenon, is carried out. Dry events are considered as a sequence of dry days (below a threshold) separated by rainfall events from each other. The maximum dry event duration follows the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. The data series adherence to the probability distribution was verified by the Anderson-Darling test. The positive trend and non-stationarity of dry spells was verified respectively by the Mann–Kendall test and Dickey–Fuller and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests. The irregular distribution of rainfall in the growing season for Sidi Abdelbasset station has increased the number of dry spells. The increase of rainy days in Ghézala dam and Sidi Salem gauge stations resulted in a decrease of dry spells in this area. Regarding the return period of one year (wet season), dry events occurred from 14 to 27 d in this region constitute an agricultural potential risk. The Southern region was the most vulnerable.

scholarly journals Workload for radiologists during on-call hours: dramatic increase in the past 15 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. M. Bruls ◽  
R. M. Kwee
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Kendall’S Tau ◽  
Kendall's Tau ◽  
X Ray ◽  
The Past ◽  
Relative Value ◽  
Burn Out ◽  
Picture Archiving And Communication ◽  
Ct Studies

Abstract Background The objective of this study is to investigate the workload for radiologists during on-call hours and to quantify the 15-year trend in a large general hospital in Western Europe. Methods Data regarding the number of X-ray, ultrasound and computed tomography (CT) studies during on-call hours (weekdays between 6.00 p.m. and 7.00 a.m., weekends, and national holidays) between 2006 and 2020 were extracted from the picture archiving and communication system. All studies were converted into relative value units (RVUs) to estimate the on-call workload. The Mann–Kendall test was performed to assess the temporal trend. Results The total RVUs during on-call hours showed a significant increase between 2006 and 2020 (Kendall's tau-b = 0.657, p = 0.001). The overall workload in terms of RVUs during on-call hours has quadrupled. The number of X-ray studies significantly decreased (Kendall's tau-b = − 0.433, p = 0.026), whereas the number of CT studies significantly increased (Kendall's tau-b = 0.875, p < 0.001) between 2006 and 2020. CT studies which increased by more than 500% between 2006 and 2020 are CT for head trauma, brain CTA, brain CTV, chest CT (for suspected pulmonary embolism), spinal CT, neck CT, pelvic CT, and CT for suspected aortic dissection. The number of ultrasound studies did not change significantly (Kendall's tau-b = 0.202, p = 0.298). Conclusions The workload for radiologists during on-call hours increased dramatically in the past 15 years. The growing amount of CT studies is responsible for this increase. Radiologist and technician workforce should be matched to this ongoing increasing trend to avoid potential burn-out and to maintain quality and safety of radiological care.

scholarly journals Scale invariant events and dry spells for medium-resolution local rain data

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Deluca ◽  
Á. Corral
Keyword(s):  
Finite Size ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Scale Invariant ◽  
Scaling Properties ◽  
Medium Resolution ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Rain Data

Abstract. We analyze distributions of rain-event sizes, rain-event durations, and dry-spell durations for data obtained from a network of 20 rain gauges scattered in a region of the northwestern Mediterranean coast. While power-law distributions model the dry-spell durations with a common exponent 1.50 ± 0.05, density analysis is inconclusive for event sizes and event durations, due to finite size effects. However, we present alternative evidence of the existence of scale invariance in these distributions by means of different data collapses of the distributions. These results demonstrate that scaling properties of rain events and dry spells can also be observed for medium-resolution rain data.

scholarly journals Assessing the long-term sustainability of the groundwater resources in the Bacchiglione basin (Veneto, Italy) with the Mann–Kendall test: suggestions for higher reliability

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mara Meggiorin ◽  
Giulia Passadore ◽  
Silvia Bertoldo ◽  
Andrea Sottani ◽  
Andrea Rinaldo
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
Aquifer System ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Status Assessment

The social, economic, and ecological importance of the aquifer system within the Bacchiglione basin (Veneto, IT) is noteworthy, and there is considerable disagreement among previous studies over its sustainable use. Investigating the long-term quantitative sustainability of the groundwater system, this study presents a statistical methodology that can be applied to similar cases. Using a combination of robust and widely used techniques, we apply the seasonal Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator to the recorded groundwater level timeseries. The analysis is carried out on a large and heterogeneous proprietary dataset gathering hourly groundwater level timeseries at 79 control points, acquired during the period 2005–2019. The test identifies significant decreasing trends for most of the available records, unlike previous studies on the quantitative status of the same resource which covered the domain investigated here for a slightly different period: 2000–2014. The present study questions the reason for such diverging results by focusing on the method’s accuracy. After carrying out a Fourier analysis on the longest available timeseries, for studies of groundwater status assessment this work suggests applying the Mann–Kendall test to timeseries longer than 20 years (because otherwise the analysis would be affected by interannual periodicities of the water cycle). A further analysis of two 60-year-long monthly timeseries between 1960 and 2020 supports the actual sustainable use of the groundwater resource, the past deployment of the groundwater resources notwithstanding. Results thus prove more reliable, and meaningful inferences on the longterm sustainability of the groundwater system are possible.

A comparison of western Great Basin paleoclimate records for the last 3000 yr: Evidence for multidecadal- to millennial-scale drought

2021 ◽  
pp. 183-199
Author(s):  
Steve P. Lund ◽  
Larry V. Benson
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Great Basin ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Walker Lake ◽  
Pyramid Lake ◽  
The Past ◽  
Hydrological Variability ◽  
Hydrologic Variability

ABSTRACT This paper summarizes the hydrological variability in eastern California (central Sierra Nevada) for the past 3000 yr based on three distinct paleoclimate proxies, δ18O, total inorganic carbon (TIC), and magnetic susceptibility (chi). These proxies, which are recorded in lake sediments of Pyramid Lake and Walker Lake, Nevada, and Mono Lake and Owens Lake, California, indicate lake-level changes that are mostly due to variations in Sierra Nevada snowpack and rainfall. We evaluated lake-level changes in the four Great Basin lake systems with regard to sediment-core locations and lake-basin morphologies, to the extent that these two factors influence the paleoclimate proxy records. We documented the strengths and weaknesses of each proxy and argue that a systematic study of all three proxies together significantly enhances our ability to characterize the regional pattern, chronology, and resolution of hydrological variability. We used paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) to develop paleomagnetic chronostratigraphies for all four lakes. We previously published PSV records for three of the lakes (Mono, Owens, Pyramid) and developed a new PSV record herein for Walker Lake. We show that our PSV chronostratigraphies are almost identical to previously established radiocarbon-based chronologies, but that there are differences of 20–200 yr in individual age records. In addition, we used eight of the PSV inclination features to provide isochrons that permit exacting correlations between lake records. We also evaluated the temporal resolution of our proxies. Most can document decadal-scale variability over the past 1000 yr, multidecadal-scale variability for the past 2000 yr, and centennial-scale variability between 2000 and 3000 yr ago. Comparisons among our proxies show a strong coherence in the pattern of lake-level variability for all four lakes. Pyramid Lake and Walker Lake have the longest and highest-resolution records. The δ18O and TIC records yield the same pattern of lake-level variability; however, TIC may allow a somewhat higher-frequency resolution. It is not clear, however, which proxy best estimates the absolute amplitude of lake-level variability. Chi is the only available proxy that records lake-level variability in all four lakes prior to 2000 yr ago, and it shows consistent evidence of a large multicentennial period of drought. TIC, chi, and δ18O are integrative proxies in that they display the cumulative record of hydrologic variability in each lake basin. Tree-ring estimations of hydrological variability, by contrast, are incremental proxies that estimate annual variability. We compared our integrated proxies with tree-ring incremental proxies and found a strong correspondence among the two groups of proxies if the tree-ring proxies are smoothed to decadal or multidecadal averages. Together, these results indicate a common pattern of wet/dry variability in California (Sierra Nevada snowpack/rainfall) extending from a few years (notable only in the tree-ring data) to perhaps 1000 yr. Notable hydrologic variability has occurred at all time scales and should continue into the future.

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Meteorological Drought in Jordan

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitham Aladaileh ◽  
Mohammed Al Qinna ◽  
Barta Karoly ◽  
Emad Al-Karablieh ◽  
János Rakonczai
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hierarchical Clustering ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
The Impact

Following the impact of droughts witnessed during the last decade there is an urgent need to develop a drought management strategy, policy framework, and action plan for Jordan. This study aims to provide a historical baseline using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought maps, and to investigate the spatial and temporal trends using long-term historical precipitation records. Specifically, this study is based on the statistical analysis of 38 years of monthly rainfall data, gathered from all 29 meteorological stations that cover Jordan. The Mann–Kendall test and linear regression analysis were used to uncover evidence of long-term trends in precipitation. Drought indices were used for calculating the meteorological SPI on an annual (SPI12), 6-months (SPI6), and 3-months basis (SPI3). At each level, every drought event was characterized according to its duration, interval, and intensity. Then, drought maps were generated using interpolation kriging to investigate the spatial extent of drought events, while drought patterns were temporally characterized using multilinear regression and spatial grouped using the hierarchical clustering technique. Both annual and monthly trend analyses and the Mann–Kendall test indicated significant reduction of precipitation in time for all weather stations except for Madaba. The rate of decrease is estimated at approximately 1.8 mm/year for the whole country. The spatial SPI krig maps that were generated suggest the presence of two drought types in the spatial dimension: Local and national. Local droughts reveal no actual observed trends or repeatable patterns of occurrence. However, looking at meteorological droughts across all time scales indicated that Jordan is facing an increasing number of local droughts. With a probability of occurrence of once every two years to three years. On the other hand, extreme national droughts occur once every 15 to 20 years and last for two or more consecutive years. Linear trends indicated significant increase in drought magnitude by time with a rate of 0.02 (p < 0.0001). Regression analysis indicated that draught in Jordan is time dependent (p < 0.001) rather than being spatially dependent (p > 0.99). Hierarchical clustering was able to group national draughts into three zones, namely the northern zone, the eastern zone, and the southern zone. This study highlights the urgent need for a monitoring program to investigate local and national drought impacts on all sectors, as well as the development of a set of proactive risk management measures and preparedness plans for various physiographic regions.

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