Differences in absolute risk of cardiovascular events using risk-refinement tests: A systematic analysis of four cardiovascular risk equations

2013 ◽  
Vol 227 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emil M. deGoma ◽  
Richard L. Dunbar ◽  
Douglas Jacoby ◽  
Benjamin French
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Risk Refinement

Abstract 11552: Statin Therapy in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Individualized Treatment Effects Based on the ASCOT, ALLHAT and CARDS Trials

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lotte Kaasenbrood ◽  
Neil R Poulter ◽  
Peter S Sever ◽  
Helen Colhoun ◽  
Shona J Livingstone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Statin Therapy ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Individualized Treatment ◽  
Treatment Allocation ◽  
Major Cardiovascular Events

Introduction: Clinicians need to translate results from randomized clinical trials to individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In this study we aim to develop and validate a model for the prediction of absolute risk reductions (ARR) for major cardiovascular events by usual-dose statin therapy for individuals with T2DM. Methods: Data from the ASCOT-LLA trial (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 2,725 T2DM patients were used to predict 10-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke or cardiovascular death). Predictions were based on a newly developed model of 8 predictors: age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, non-HDL cholesterol, fasting glucose, history of cardiovascular events and treatment allocation (statin or placebo). External validation was performed in ALLHAT-LLT (3,878 T2DM patients) and CARDS (2,838 T2DM patients). Possible effect modification of statin therapy was evaluated for baseline cardiovascular risk and single interactions between predictors and treatment allocation. Results: The predicted 10-year ARR for cardiovascular events was low (<2%) for 13% of the T2DM patients, translating in 10-year NNT >50 (Figure 1). About 30% of the T2DM patients had an ARR of >4% (10-year NNT <25). The addition of treatment interactions did not significantly improve model performance. The developed model showed adequate calibration and moderate discrimination in both external validation sets (concordance statistic 0.64 in ALLHAT and 0.68 in CARDS). Conclusion: Absolute risk reductions by statin therapy can be estimated for individual patients with T2DM using a model based on trial data. There is a wide distribution in absolute risk reduction by statin therapy in T2DM patients due to a distribution in cardiovascular risk. Individualized treatment effects are more informative for patients and clinicians than relative average effects and can be used to guide clinical decision-making.

Disease activity and lifestyle influence the occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular events in acromegaly

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Sardella ◽  
Daniele Cappellani ◽  
Claudio Urbani ◽  
Luca Manetti ◽  
Giulia Marconcini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Disease Activity ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Events

Relationship Between Obstructive Sleep Apnoea, Oxygen Desaturation and Cardiovascular Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (10) ◽  
pp. 3582-3586
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Obstructive Sleep Apnoea ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Sleep Apnoea ◽  
Oxygen Desaturation ◽  
Obstructive Sleep Apnoea Syndrome ◽  
Obstructive Sleep

Obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS) increases the risk cardiovascular events regardless of the presence of previous cardiovascular disease. As both OSAS and coronary heart disease (CHD) have same risk factors it’s often difficult to quantify the proportion of each risk factor in developing cardiac events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the 10-year risk of developing a coronary heart disease (CHD) event or stroke in newly diagnosed OSAS patients. 65 patients diagnosed with OSAS over a period of four months in Oradea Sleep Laboratory were included. Demographic characteristics, anthropometric parameters, clinical and biochemical data, sleep disorder and daytime sleepiness assessment, results of polysomnography were collected in all patients. In 55 selected patients by age range from 34 to 74 years old, cardiovascular risk was assessed using Framingham score calculator. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS-PC version 7.5 and Stata 10.The estimated 10-years risk of a CHD event was 18.97% (± 9.67) in all cases. It was higher in men (22.17% ± 9.24) compare to women (12.39% ± 6.92) and it was not significantly different by stages of OSAS severity (20.58% ±9.41 in patients with severe OSAS versus 15.4% in mild OSAS), suggesting that apnea hypopnea index is not a major confounding factor. Desaturation of oxygen is a better outcome to define the relation between OSAS and cardiovascular diseases. OSAS and cardiovascular risk factors increased risk for future adverse cardiovascular events related to the severity of oxygen desaturation. Keywords: obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome, cardiovascular events, risk factors, oxygen desaturation

The Impact of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk on Graft Failure in Deceased-Donor Renal Transplantation

2021 ◽  
pp. 152692482110246
Author(s):  
Grace Hsu ◽  
Tracy M. Sparkes ◽  
Brent N. Reed ◽  
Stormi E. Gale ◽  
Brian E. Crossley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Renal Transplant ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Graft Failure ◽  
Deceased Donor ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Introduction: Pretransplant cardiovascular risk may be amplified after renal transplant, but little is known about its impact on graft outcomes. Research question: The purpose of this study was to determine if pretransplant cardiovascular risk was associated with graft outcomes. Design: This retrospective study included deceased-donor renal transplant recipients from 2010-2015. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk for patients without prior disease was calculated and patients were categorized into high (score >20%), intermediate (7.5-20%), and low risk (<7.5%). Patients with and without prior cardiovascular disease were also compared. The main endpoint was graft failure at 3-years post-transplant. Other outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events, biopsy-proven rejection, and mortality. Results: In patients without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (N = 115), graft failure rates (4.5% vs 11.3% vs 12.5%; ( P = 0.64) and major adverse cardiovascular events (9.1% vs 13.2% vs 5.0%; P = 0.52) were similar in the high, intermediate, and low risk groups. In those with prior disease (N = 220), rates of primary nonfunction (6.8% vs 1.7%; P = 0.04), major adverse cardiovascular events (7.3% vs 2.6%; P = 0.01), and heart failure (10.9% vs 3.5%; P = 0.02) were higher than those without cardiovascular; rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and heart failure were insignificant after adjusting for age, gender, and race. Other outcomes were not different. Outcomes did not differ based on pretransplant cardiovascular risk. Discussion: Pretransplant atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was associated with increased early graft failure but similar outcomes at 3-years, suggesting cardiac risk alone should not exclude transplantation.

scholarly journals Simple cardiovascular risk stratification using anthropometric measures instead of serum cholesterol. The MORGAM Prospective Cohort Project

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Kristensen ◽  
V Rosberg ◽  
J Vishram-Nielsen ◽  
M Pareek ◽  
A Linneberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Total Cholesterol ◽  
Serum Cholesterol ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Serum Total Cholesterol ◽  
Anthropometric Measures ◽  
Blood Pressures

Abstract Background Body composition predicts cardiovascular outcomes, but it is uncertain whether anthropometric measures can replace the more expensive serum total cholesterol for cardiovascular risk stratification in low resource settings. Purpose The purpose of the study was to compare the additive prognostic ability of serum total cholesterol with that of body mass index (BMI), waist/hip ratio (WHR), and estimated fat mass (EFM, calculated using a validated prediction equation), individually and combined. Methods We used data from the MORGAM (MONICA, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph) Prospective Cohort Project, an international pooling of cardiovascular cohorts, to determine the relationship between anthropometric measures, serum cholesterol, and cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis. We further investigated the ability of these measures to enhance prognostication beyond a simpler prediction model, consisting of age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressures, and country, using comparison of area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUCROC) derived from binary logistic regression models. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as a composite of death from coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Results The study population consisted of 52,188 apparently healthy subjects (56.3% men) aged 47±12 years ranging from 20 to 84, derived from 37 European cohorts, with baseline between 1982–2002 all followed for 10 years during which MACE occurred in 2465 (4.7%) subjects. All anthropometric measures (BMI: hazard ratio (HR) 1.04 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.05] per kg/m2; WHR: HR 7.5 [4.0–14.0] per unit; EFM: HR 1.02 [1.01–1.02] per kg) as well as serum total cholesterol (HR 1.20 [1.16–1.24] per mmol/l) were significantly associated with MACE (P&lt;0.001 for all), independently of age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressures, and country. The addition of serum cholesterol significantly improved the predictive ability of the simple model (AUCROC 0.818 vs. 0.814, P&lt;0.001), as did the combination of WHR, BMI, and EFM (AUCROC 0.817 vs. 0.814, P=0.004). When assessed individually, BMI (AUCROC 0.816 vs. 0.814, P=0.004) and WHR (AUCROC 0.815 vs. 0.814, P=0.02) improved model performance, while EFM narrowly missed significance (AUCROC 0.815 vs. 0.814, P=0.06). There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of a model including serum cholesterol versus that including all three anthropometric measures (AUCROC 0.818 vs. 0.817, P=0.13). The figure shows the pertinent areas under the ROC curve in predicting MACE. Conclusion In this large population-based cohort study, the addition of a combination of anthropometric measures, i.e. BMI, WHR, and EFM, raised the predictive ability of a simple prognostic model comparable to that obtained by the addition of serum total cholesterol. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Cardiovascular Calcification as a Marker of Increased Cardiovascular Risk and a Surrogate for Subclinical Atherosclerosis: Role of Echocardiography

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1668
Author(s):  
Andrea Faggiano ◽  
Gloria Santangelo ◽  
Stefano Carugo ◽  
Gregg Pressman ◽  
Eugenio Picano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Cardiac Computed Tomography ◽  
Subclinical Atherosclerosis ◽  
Organ Damage ◽  
Conventional Risk Factor ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Ultrasound Evaluation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Mitral Apparatus

The risk prediction of future cardiovascular events is mainly based on conventional risk factor assessment by validated algorithms, such as the Framingham Risk Score, the Pooled Cohort Equations and the European SCORE Risk Charts. The identification of subclinical atherosclerosis has emerged as a promising tool to refine the individual cardiovascular risk identified by these models, to prognostic stratify asymptomatic individuals and to implement preventive strategies. Several imaging modalities have been proposed for the identification of subclinical organ damage, the main ones being coronary artery calcification scanning by cardiac computed tomography and the two-dimensional ultrasound evaluation of carotid arteries. In this context, echocardiography offers an assessment of cardiac calcifications at different sites, such as the mitral apparatus (including annulus, leaflets and papillary muscles), aortic valve and ascending aorta, findings that are associated with the clinical manifestation of atherosclerotic disease and are predictive of future cardiovascular events. The aim of this paper is to summarize the available evidence on clinical implications of cardiac calcification, review studies that propose semiquantitative ultrasound assessments of cardiac calcifications and evaluate the potential of ultrasound calcium scores for risk stratification and prevention of clinical events.

An absolute risk-guided approach to cardiovascular risk management within a chest pain clinic: the ARCPAC randomized trial

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.A Black ◽  
J Campbell ◽  
J Sharman ◽  
M Nelson ◽  
S Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Pain Clinic ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk Management ◽  
Risk Factor Management

Abstract Background The majority of patients attending chest pain clinics are found not to have a cardiac cause of their symptoms, but have a high burden of cardiovascular risk factors that may be opportunistically addressed. Absolute risk calculators are recommended to guide risk factor management, although it is uncertain to what extent these calculations may assist with patient engagement in risk factor modification. Purpose We sought to determine the usefulness of a proactive, absolute risk-based approach, to guide opportunistic cardiovascular risk factor management within a chest pain clinic. Methods This was a prospective, open-label, blinded-endpoint study in 192 enhanced risk (estimated 5-year risk ≥8%, based on Australian Absolute Risk Calculator) patients presenting to a tertiary hospital chest pain clinic. Patients were randomized to best practice usual care, or intervention with development of a proactive cardiovascular risk management strategy framed around a discussion of the individual's absolute risk. Patients found to have a cardiac cause of symptoms were excluded as they constitute a secondary prevention population. Primary outcome was 5-year absolute cardiovascular risk score at minimum 12 months follow up. Secondary outcomes were individual modifiable risk factors (lipid profile, blood pressure, smoking status). Results 192 people entered the study; 100 in the intervention arm and 92 in usual care. There was no statistical difference between the two groups' baseline sociodemographic and clinical variables. The intervention group showed greater reduction in 5-year absolute risk scores (difference −2.77; p&lt;0.001), and more favourable individual risk factors, although only smoking status and LDL cholesterol reached statistical significance (table). Conclusion An absolute risk-guided proactive risk factor management strategy employed opportunistically in a chest pain clinic significantly improves 5-year cardiovascular risk scores. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Tasmanian Community Fund

scholarly journals Prognostic value of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy in asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus at high cardiovascular risk: 5-year follow-up of the prospective multicenter BARDOT trial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Caobelli ◽  
◽  
Philip Haaf ◽  
Gianluca Haenny ◽  
Matthias Pfisterer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Myocardial Perfusion ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Perfusion Scintigraphy ◽  
High Cardiovascular Risk

Abstract Background The Basel Asymptomatic High-Risk Diabetics’ Outcome Trial (BARDOT) demonstrated that asymptomatic diabetic patients with an abnormal myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) were at increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) at 2-year follow-up. It remains unclear whether this finding holds true even for a longer follow-up. Methods Four hundred patients with type 2 diabetes, neither history nor symptoms of coronary artery disease (CAD), were evaluated clinically and with MPS. Patients were followed up for 5 years. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) were defined as all-cause death, myocardial infarction, or late coronary revascularization. Results At baseline, an abnormal MPS (SSS ≥ 4 or SDS ≥ 2) was found in 87 of 400 patients (22%). MACE within 5 years occurred in 14 patients with abnormal MPS (16.1%) and in 22 with normal scan (1.7%), p = 0.009; 15 deaths were recorded. Patients with completely normal MPS (SSS and SDS = 0) had lower rates of MACEs than patients with abnormal scans (2.5% vs. 7.0%, p = 0.032). Patients with abnormal MPS who had undergone revascularization had a lower mortality rate and a better event-free survival from MI and revascularization than patients with abnormal MPS who had either undergone medical therapy only or could not be revascularized (p = 0.002). Conclusions MPS may have prognostic value in asymptomatic diabetic patients at high cardiovascular risk over a follow-up period of 5 years. Patients with completely normal MPS have a low event rate and may not need retesting within 5 years. Patients with an abnormal MPS have higher event rates and may benefit from a combined medical and revascularization approach.

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