Asymmetric responses in the timing, and magnitude, of changes in Australian monthly petrol prices to daily oil price changes

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.

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DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan ◽

10.31685/kek.v15i2.91 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 37-52

Author(s):

Mahpud Sujai

Keyword(s):

Linear Trend ◽

The State ◽

Oil Price ◽

Output Gap ◽

State Budget ◽

Price Changes ◽

Potential Output ◽

Budget Cycle ◽

Actual Output ◽

The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

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The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies ◽

10.22610/jebs.v5i11.446 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 5 (11) ◽

pp. 730-739 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Pelin Ã–GE GÃœNEY

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Output Growth ◽

Oil Price ◽

Series Data ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Price Changes ◽

Asymmetric Effects ◽

Price Increases ◽

Causality Tests ◽

The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1â€“2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

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Crude Oil Price and Food Security Related Variables in Malaysia

GATR Global Journal of Business Social Sciences Review - GATR Global Journal of Business and Social Science Review (GJBSSR) Vol.7(1) Jan-Mar 2019 ◽

10.35609/gjbssr.2016.4.2(3) ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 17-21

Author(s):

Shri Dewi Applanaidu ◽

Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Crude Oil ◽

Price Index ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Food Price ◽

Oil Price ◽

Crude Oil Price ◽

Price Changes ◽

Oil Price Volatility ◽

Crude Oil Prices

Objective - This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between crude oil price and food security related variables (crude palm oil price, exchange rate, food import, food price index, food production index, income per capita and government development expenditure) in Malaysia using a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Methodology/Technique - The data covered the period of 1980-2014. Impulse response functions (IRFs) was applied to examine what will be the results of crude oil price changes to the variables in the model. To explore the impact of variation in crude oil prices on the selected food security related variables forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) was employed. Findings - Findings from IRFs suggest there are positive effects of oil price changes on food import and food price index. The VDC analyses suggest that crude oil price changes have relatively largest impact on real crude palm oil price, food import and food price index. This study would suggest to revisiting the formulation of food price policy by including appropriate weight of crude oil price volatility. In terms of crude oil palm price determination, the volatility of crude oil prices should be taken into account. Overdependence on food imports also needs to be reduced. Novelty - As the largest response of crude oil price volatility on related food security variables food vouchers can be implemented. Food vouchers have advantages compared to direct cash transfers since it can be targeted and can be restricted to certain types of products and group of people. Hence, it can act as a better aid compared cash transfers. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Crude oil price, Food security related variables, IRF, VAR, VDC

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Modelling Elasticity of Non‑Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U‑Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis ◽

10.11118/actaun201967030799 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 67 (3) ◽

pp. 799-810

Author(s):

Khatai Aliyev ◽

Altay Ismayilov ◽

Ilkin Gasimov

Keyword(s):

Income Tax ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Great Influence ◽

Policy Decision ◽

Threshold Level ◽

The State ◽

Oil Price ◽

State Budget ◽

Price Changes ◽

Tax Revenues

Oil price changes has a great influence on the behaviour of firms in oil exporting countries which displays itself in amount of non‑oil tax receipts of the state budget. Employing FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR cointegration methods for 2001Q1–2015Q4, the study aims to analyse how oil price changes affects non‑oil tax revenues in Azerbaijan. Empirical results altogether provide strong scientific evidence that there is U‑shaped causality from oil price changes to total non‑oil tax revenues , corporate income tax receipts and labour income tax payments , and inverse U‑shaped to non‑oil VAT revenues of the state budget. Results show that firms face with the trade‑off between “produce‑and‑sell” and “import‑and‑sell” as oil price rises. In case of higher price than the threshold level, companies prefer the latter choice. Research findings are highly useful for the public policy decision‑makers in resource rich economies.

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