The integration of land use and climate change risks in the Programmes of Measures of River Basin Plans – assessing the influence of the Water Framework Directive in Portugal

In the Didessa river basin, which is found in Ethiopia, the human population number is increasing at an alarming rate. The conversion of forests, shrub and grasslands into cropland has increased in parallel with the population increase. The land use/land cover change (LULCC) that has been undertaken in the river basin combined with climate change may have affected the Didessa river flow and soil loss. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the impact of LULCC on the Didessa river flow and soil loss under historical and future climates. Land use/land cover (LULC) of the years 1986, 2001 and 2015 were independently combined with the historical climate to assess their individual impacts on river flow and soil loss. Further, the impact of future climates under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios on river flow and soil loss was assessed by combining the pathways with the 2015 LULC. A physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) model in the ArcGIS 10.4.1 interface was used to realize the purpose. Results of the study revealed that LULCC that occurred between 1986 and 2015 resulted in increased average sediment yield by 20.9 t ha−1 yr−1. Climate change under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 combined with 2015 LULC increased annual average soil losses by 31.3, 50.9 and 83.5 t ha−1 yr−1 compared with the 2015 LULC under historical climate data. It was also found that 13.4%, 47.1% and 87.0% of the total area may experience high soil loss under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Annual soil losses of five top-priority sub catchments range from 62.8 to 57.7 per hectare. Nash Stuncliffe Simulation efficiency (NSE) and R2 values during model calibration and validation indicated good agreement between observed and simulated values both for flow and sediment yield.

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The Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Influences on the Runoff of a Typical Coastal Basin in Northern China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su122310050 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (23) ◽

pp. 10050 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Junfang Liu ◽

Baolin Xue ◽

Yuhui Yan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Swat Model ◽

Arable Land ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Northern China ◽

Combine Data ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Verification Period

Land use and climate change are the two major driving factors of watershed runoff change, and it is of great significance to study the influence of watershed hydrological processes on water resource planning and management. This study takes the Changyang River basin as the study area, builds a SWAT model and explores the applicability of the SWAT model in the basin. Moreover, we combine data on land use and climate change in different periods to construct a variety of scenario models to quantitatively analyze the impacts of different scenarios on runoff. The results show that the R2 and Ensof the model are 0.71 and 0.68 in the calibration period, respectively, and those in the verification period are 0.68 and 0.65, respectively, indicating that the SWAT model has good applicability in simulating the runoff of the Changyang River basin. Under the comprehensive scenario of land use and climate change on runoff, we found that land use and climate change have a certain contribution to the change in runoff. Therefore, the runoff of the basin increased by 0.22 m3/s, in which land-use change caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.07 m3/s attributed to the decreased area of arable land and the increased area of urban land in the basin. Moreover, climate change has caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.13 m3/s, mainly influenced by the increased precipitation. The results show that climate change has a more significant effect on runoff in the basin.

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Effects of climate change on agriculture water demand in lower Pak Phanang river basin, southern part of Thailand

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201819203043 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 192 ◽

pp. 03043

Author(s):

Natapon Kaewthong ◽

Pakorn Ditthakit

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Demand ◽

Land Development ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Climate Data ◽

Global Circulation Model ◽

Baseline Climate ◽

Agriculture Water

The aim of the research is to analyse the effects on agricultural water demand in the Lower Pak Phanang River Basin area due to climate change. The climate data used in the analysis were rainfall, maximum, minimum, and average temperatures. The climate datasets were obtained from statistical downscaling of global circulation model under the CMIP5 project by means of bias correction with Optimizing Quantile Mapping implemented by the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute. To determine agriculture water demand, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) based on Hargreaves method was calculated for both baseline climate data (1987-2015) and forecasted climate data in 2038. For agriculture water demand in the Pak Phanang river basin, we considered paddy field, palm oil, rubber, grapefruit, orchard, vegetable, ruzy and biennial crop, based on land use data of the Land Development Department of Thailand in 2012. The results showed that forecasted agriculture water demand in 2038 with existing land use data in 2012 will be increased with the average of 18.9% or 61.78 MCM as compared to baseline climate condition. Both water demand and supply management measures would be suitably prepared before facing unexpected situation.

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Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10093277 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 3277 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽

Sitian Liu ◽

Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽

Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽

Patricia Jimeno-Sáez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Forest Area ◽

Se Spain ◽

Monthly Streamflow ◽

Agricultural Areas ◽

Water Assessment

Climate change and the land-use and land-cover changes (LULC) resulting from anthropic activity are important factors in the degradation of an ecosystem and in the availability of a basin’s water resources. To know how these activities affect the quantity of the water resources of basins, such as the Segura River Basin, is of vital importance. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the study of the abovementioned impacts. The model was validated by obtaining a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a percent bias (PBIAS) of 17.23%, indicating that SWAT accurately replicated monthly streamflow. Next, land-use maps for the years of 1956 and 2007 were used to establish a series of scenarios that allowed us to evaluate the effects of these activities on both joint and individual water resources. A reforestation plan applied in the basin during the 1970s caused that the forest area had almost doubled, whereas the agricultural areas and shrubland had been reduced by one-third. These modifications, together with the effect of climate change, have led to a decrease of 26.3% in the quantity of generated water resources, not only due to climate change but also due to the increase in forest area.

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Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use/cover change on runoff in the lower Connecticut River Basin

Hydrological Processes ◽

10.1002/hyp.11509 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 32 (9) ◽

pp. 1301-1312 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Hui Wang ◽

Scott R. Stephenson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Connecticut River ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Land Use Zoning for Conserving Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2015/496942 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-13 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Chenchen Shi ◽

Jinyan Zhan ◽

Yongwei Yuan ◽

Feng Wu ◽

Zhihui Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

River Basin ◽

Heihe River Basin ◽

Heihe River ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

The Heihe River Basin

Ecosystem services are the benefit human populations derive directly and indirectly from the natural environment. They suffer from both the human intervention, like land use zoning change, and natural intervention, like the climate change. Under the background of climate change, regulation services of ecosystem could be strengthened under proper land use zoning policy to mitigate the climate change. In this paper, a case study was conducted in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin to assess the ecosystem services conservation zoning under the change of land use associated with climate variations. The research results show the spatial impact of land use zoning on ecosystem services in the study area which are significant reference for the spatial optimization of land use zoning in preserving the key ecosystem services to mitigate the climate change. The research contributes to the growing literature in finely characterizing the ecosystem services zones altered by land use change to alleviate the impact of climate change, as there is no such systematic ecosystem zoning method before.

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Application of SWAT model to Assess Land Use and Climate Changes Impacts on Hydrology of Nam Rom River Basin in Vietnam

10.20944/preprints202001.0362.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Son Ngo ◽

Huong Hoang ◽

Phuong Tran ◽

Loc Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ground Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Swat Model ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Hydrological Processes ◽

Water Yield ◽

Hydrological Process

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are two main factors directly affecting hydrologic conditions. However, very few studies in Vietnam have investigated changes in hydrological process under the impact of climate and land use changes on a basin scale. The objective of this study is to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes for the Nam Rom river basin, Northwestern Viet Nam using Remote Sensing (RS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. SWAT model was used for hydrological process simulation. Results indicated that SWAT proved to be a powerful tool in simulating the impacts of land use and climate change on catchment hydrology. The change in historical land use between 1992 and 2015 strongly contributed to increasing hydrological processes (ET, percolation, ground water, and water yield), whereas, climate change led to significant decrease of all hydrological components. The combination of land use and climate changes significantly reduced surface runoff (-16.9%), ground water (-5.7%), water yield (-9.2%), and sediment load (-4.9%). Overall climatic changes had more significant effect on hydrological components than land use changes in the Nam Rom river basin during the 1992–2015. Under impacts of projected land use and climate change scenarios in 2030 on hydrological process of the upper Nam Rom river basin indicate that ET and surface flow are more sensitive to the changes in land use and climate in the future. In conclusion, the findings of this study will basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology for future development of integrated land use and water management practices in Nam Rom river basin.

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Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-162130/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Xu Chen ◽

Ruiguang Han ◽

Yongjie Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Baseline Scenario ◽

Luanhe River Basin ◽

Hydrological Droughts

Abstract Drought can be impacted by both climate change and land use change in different ways. Thus, in order to predict future drought conditions, hydrological simulations as an ideal means, can be used to account for both projected climate change and projected land use change. In this study, projected climate and land use changes were integrated with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate the combined impact of climate and land use projections on hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin. We presented that the measured runoff and the remote sensing inversion of soil water content were simultaneously used to validate the model to ensure the reliability of model parameters. Following the calibration and validation, the SWAT model was forced with downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on the CMIP5, corresponding to three different representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for three distinct time periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, referred to as early-century, mid-century and late-century, respectively, and the land use predicted by CA-Markov model in the same future periods. Hydrological droughts were quantified using the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Compared to the baseline scenario (1961–1990), mild drought occurred more frequently during the next three periods (except the 2080s under the RCP2.6 emission scenario). Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the probability of severe drought or above occurring in the 2080s increased, the duration prolonged and the severity increased. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the upper central region of the Luanhe river in the 2020s and upper reaches of the Luanhe river in the 2080s, were more likely to suffer extreme drought events. And under the RCP8.5 scenario, the middle and lower Luanhe river in the 2080s, were more likely to suffer these conditions.

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Future Projections of Water Scarcity in the Danube River Basin Due to Land Use, Water Demand and Climate Change

Journal of Environmental Geography ◽

10.2478/jengeo-2018-0010 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (3-4) ◽

pp. 25-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Berny Bisselink ◽

Ad de Roo ◽

Jeroen Bernhard ◽

Emiliano Gelati

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Water Demand ◽

Danube River ◽

The Danube River ◽

Warming Period ◽

Water Scarce ◽

Danube River Basin

Abstract This paper presents a state-of-the-art integrated model assessment to estimate the impacts of the 2°C global mean temperature increase and the 2061-2090 warming period on water scarcity in the Danube River Basin under the RCP8.5 scenario. The Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) is used to calculate changes in both spatial extent and people exposed to water scarcity due to land use, water demand, population and climate change. Despite model and data uncertainties, the combined effects of projected land use, water demand and climate change show a decrease in the number of people exposed to water scarcity during the 2°C warming period and an increase in the 2061-2090 period in the Danube River Basin. However, the projected population change results in a decrease of exposed people in both warming periods. Regions with population growth, in the northwestern part of the Danube River Basin experience low water scarcity or a decrease in water scarcity. The largest number of people vulnerable to water scarcity within the Danube River Basin are living in the Great Morava, Bulgarian Danube and Romanian Danube. There, the combined effects of land use, water demand and climate change exacerbate already existing water scarce areas during the 2°C warming period and towards the end of the century new water scarce areas are created. Although less critical during the 2°C warming period, adjacent regions such as the Tisza, Middle Danube and Siret-Prut are susceptible to experience similar exposure to water scarcity within the 2061-2090 period. Climate change is the most important driver for the increase in water scarcity in these regions, but the strengthening effect of water demand (energy sector) and dampening effect of land use change (urbanization) does play a role as well. Therefore, while preparing for times of increased pressures on the water supply it would be advisable for several economic sectors to explore and implement water efficiency measures.

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