The Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Influences on the Runoff of a Typical Coastal Basin in Northern China

Land use and climate change are the two major driving factors of watershed runoff change, and it is of great significance to study the influence of watershed hydrological processes on water resource planning and management. This study takes the Changyang River basin as the study area, builds a SWAT model and explores the applicability of the SWAT model in the basin. Moreover, we combine data on land use and climate change in different periods to construct a variety of scenario models to quantitatively analyze the impacts of different scenarios on runoff. The results show that the R2 and Ensof the model are 0.71 and 0.68 in the calibration period, respectively, and those in the verification period are 0.68 and 0.65, respectively, indicating that the SWAT model has good applicability in simulating the runoff of the Changyang River basin. Under the comprehensive scenario of land use and climate change on runoff, we found that land use and climate change have a certain contribution to the change in runoff. Therefore, the runoff of the basin increased by 0.22 m3/s, in which land-use change caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.07 m3/s attributed to the decreased area of arable land and the increased area of urban land in the basin. Moreover, climate change has caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.13 m3/s, mainly influenced by the increased precipitation. The results show that climate change has a more significant effect on runoff in the basin.

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Application of SWAT model to Assess Land Use and Climate Changes Impacts on Hydrology of Nam Rom River Basin in Vietnam

10.20944/preprints202001.0362.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Son Ngo ◽

Huong Hoang ◽

Phuong Tran ◽

Loc Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ground Water ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Swat Model ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Hydrological Processes ◽

Water Yield ◽

Hydrological Process

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are two main factors directly affecting hydrologic conditions. However, very few studies in Vietnam have investigated changes in hydrological process under the impact of climate and land use changes on a basin scale. The objective of this study is to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use and climate changes on hydrological processes for the Nam Rom river basin, Northwestern Viet Nam using Remote Sensing (RS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. SWAT model was used for hydrological process simulation. Results indicated that SWAT proved to be a powerful tool in simulating the impacts of land use and climate change on catchment hydrology. The change in historical land use between 1992 and 2015 strongly contributed to increasing hydrological processes (ET, percolation, ground water, and water yield), whereas, climate change led to significant decrease of all hydrological components. The combination of land use and climate changes significantly reduced surface runoff (-16.9%), ground water (-5.7%), water yield (-9.2%), and sediment load (-4.9%). Overall climatic changes had more significant effect on hydrological components than land use changes in the Nam Rom river basin during the 1992–2015. Under impacts of projected land use and climate change scenarios in 2030 on hydrological process of the upper Nam Rom river basin indicate that ET and surface flow are more sensitive to the changes in land use and climate in the future. In conclusion, the findings of this study will basic knowledge of the effects of climate and land-use changes on the hydrology for future development of integrated land use and water management practices in Nam Rom river basin.

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Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12166423 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (16) ◽

pp. 6423

Author(s):

Lanhua Luo ◽

Qing Zhou ◽

Hong S. He ◽

Liangxia Duan ◽

Gaoling Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Laboratory Experiments ◽

Southern China ◽

Swat Model ◽

Efficiency Coefficient ◽

Soil Database ◽

The Impact

Quantitative assessment of the impact of land use and climate change on hydrological processes is of great importance to water resources planning and management. The main objective of this study was to quantitatively assess the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Zhengshui River Basin of Southern China, a heavily used agricultural basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the river runoff for the Zhengshui River Basin. Specifically, a soil database was constructed based on field work and laboratory experiments as input data for the SWAT model. Following SWAT calibration, simulated results were compared with observed runoff data for the period 2006 to 2013. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2) for the comparisons were greater than 0.80, indicating close agreement. The calibrated models were applied to simulate monthly runoff in 1990 and 2010 for four scenarios with different land use and climate conditions. Climate change played a dominant role affecting runoff of this basin, with climate change decreasing simulated runoff by −100.22% in 2010 compared to that of 1990, land use change increasing runoff in this basin by 0.20% and the combination of climate change and land use change decreasing runoff by 60.8m3/s. The decrease of forestland area and the corresponding increase of developed land and cultivated land area led to the small increase in runoff associated with land use change. The influence of precipitation on runoff was greater than temperature. The soil database used to model runoff with the SWAT model for the basin was constructed using a combination of field investigation and laboratory experiments, and simulations of runoff based on that new soil database more closely matched observations of runoff than simulations based on the generic Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). This study may provide an important reference to guide management decisions for this and similar watersheds.

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Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.422 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

J. S. Wu ◽

Y. P. Li ◽

J. Sun ◽

P. P. Gao ◽

G. H. Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Arable Land ◽

Low Flow ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Runoff Variation ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

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Analyzing the impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality in the 3S river basin

Science and Technology Development Journal - Natural Sciences ◽

10.32508/stdjns.v2i2.745 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 125-131

Author(s):

Loi Thi Pham ◽

Khoi Nguyen Dao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Swat Model ◽

The Impact

Assessing water resources under the influence of environmental change have gained attentions of scientists. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of land use change and climate change on water resources in terms quantity and quality in the 3S basin in the period 1981–2008 by using hydrological modeling (SWAT model). The results showed that streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P) tend to increase under individual and combined effects of climate change and land use change. In addition, the impact of land use change on the flow was smaller than the climate change impact. However, water balance components and water quality were equally affected by two factors of climate change and land use change. In general, the results of this study could serve as a reference for water resource management and planning in the river basin.

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Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.268 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wenting Li ◽

Xiaoli Yang ◽

Liliang Ren ◽

Qianguo Lin ◽

Xiong Zhou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Use Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Swat Model ◽

Green Water ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Blue Water ◽

Ganjiang River Basin

Abstract The response of blue and green water to climate and land-use change in the Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) is evaluated, via the SWAT model that combines three scenarios (the land-use/land-cover (LULC), climate change, and integrated climate and LULC change scenarios) in the 2040s (2031–2050) and 2060s (2051–2070). The results indicate that, for the GRB, cropland, woodland, and grassland show a decreasing trend, while build-up and water areas show an increasing trend in terms of future land-use change. The climatic conditions projected using NORESM1-M model data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest, respectively, increases in precipitation (31.17 and 27.24 mm), maximum temperature (2.25 and 2.69 °C), and minimum temperature (1.96 and 2.58 °C). Under climate change conditions, blue water is estimated to decrease by up to 16.89 and 21.4 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while green water is estimated to increase up to 19.14 and 20.22 mm, respectively. Under the LULC changes, blue water is projected to increase by up to 5.50 and 7.57 mm, while green water shows decreases of 4.05 and 7.80 mm for the LULC2035 and LULC2055 scenarios, respectively. Under the four combined LULC and climate change conditions (RCP4.5_2040s, RCP4.5_2060s, RCP8.5_2040s, and RCP8.5_2060s), blue water tends to decrease by 0.67, 7.47, 7.28, and 9.99 mm, while green water increases by 19.24, 20.8, 13.87, and 22.30 mm. The influence of climate variation on blue and green water resources is comparatively higher than that of the integrated impacts of climate and land-use changes. The results of this study offer a scientific reference for the water resources management and planning department responsible for scheduling water resource management plan in the GRB.

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Projection of runoff and sediment yield under coordinated climate change and urbanization scenarios in Doam dam watershed, Korea

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.068 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 235-253 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Young Do Kim ◽

Jung Min Kim ◽

Boosik Kang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Swat Model ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Runoff Change ◽

Rate Of Increase

A hydro-environmental model chain in the Doam dam basin, Korea, was developed for an impact assessment under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B scenario. The feasible downscaling scheme composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and non-stationary quantile mapping was applied to the GCM (Global Climate Model) output. The impacts under climate and land use change scenarios were examined and projected using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The daily SWAT model was calibrated and validated for 2003–2004 and 2006–2008, respectively. Meanwhile the monthly SS (suspended solids) was calibrated and validated for 1999–2001 and 2007–2009, respectively. The simulation results illustrated that under the assumption of 1–5% urbanization of the forest area, the hydrologic impact is relatively negligible and the climate change impacts are dominant over the urbanization impacts. Additionally the partial impacts of land use changes were analyzed under five different scenarios: partial change of forest to urban (PCFUr), to bare field, to grassland, to upland crop (PCFUp), and to agriculture (PCFA). The analysis of the runoff change shows the highest rate of increase, 73.57% in April, for the PCFUp scenario. The second and third highest rate increases, 37.83% and 31.45% in May, occurred under the PCFA and PCFUr scenarios, respectively.

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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River Flow Regimes in the Upstream of Awash Basin, Ethiopia: Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Climate Change Scenarios

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology7040098 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 98

Author(s):

Mekonnen H. Daba ◽

Songcai You

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

River Flow ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Awash River Basin

The Awash River Basin is the most irrigated area in Ethiopia, which is facing critical water resources problems. The main objective of this study was to assess the impacts of climate change on river flows in the upper Awash Subbasin, Ethiopia, using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The ensemble of two global climate models (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and MIROC-ESM-CHEM with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for climate data projections (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and historical climate data from 1981–2010 was considered. Bias-corrections were made for both the GCM data. SWAT model was calibrated and validated to simulate future hydrologic variables in response to changes in rainfall and temperature. The results showed that the projected climate change scenarios were an increase in rainfall for the period of the 2020s but reduced for the periods of 2050s and 2080s. The annual mean temperature increases, ranging from 0.5 to 0.9 °C under RCP4.5 and 0.6 to 1.2 °C under RCP8.5 for all time slices. In the 2020s, annual mean rainfall increases by 5.77% under RCP4.5 and 7.80% under RCP8.5, while in 2050s and 2080s time slices, rainfall decrements range from 3.31 to 9.87% under RCP4.5 and 6.80 to 16.22% under RCP8.5. The change in rainfall and temperature probably leads to increases in the annual streamflow by 5.79% for RCP4.5 and 7.20% for RCP8.5 in the 2020s, whereas decreases by 10.39% and 11.45% under RCP4.5; and 10.79% and −12.38% for RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, in the 2020s, an increment of annual runoff was 10.73% for RCP4.5 and 12.08% for RCP8.5. Runoff reduces by 12.03% and 4.12% under RCP4.5; and 12.65% and 5.31% under RCP8.5 in the 2050s and the 2080s, respectively. Overall, the results revealed that changes in rainfall and temperature would have significant impacts on the streamflow and surface runoff, causing a possible reduction in the total water availability in the subbasin. This study provides useful information for future water resource planning and management in the face of climate change in the upper Awash River basin.

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Study on the Impact of Land-Use Change on Runoff Variation Trend in Luojiang River Basin, China

Water ◽

10.3390/w13223282 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (22) ◽

pp. 3282

Author(s):

Ji He ◽

Yu-Rong Wan ◽

Hai-Tao Chen ◽

Wen-Chuan Wang

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

River Basin ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Runoff Coefficient ◽

Runoff Variation ◽

Runoff Change ◽

The Impact

To reveal the influence process of land use changes on runoff variation trends, this paper takes the Luojiang River of China as the study area, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the impact of different land uses on runoff formation in the watershed, and used the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model to predict future land use scenarios and runoff change trends. The results show that: (1) the SWAT model can simulate the runoff in the Luojiang River basin; (2) the runoff in the Luojiang River basin has a decreasing trend in recent 10 years, caused by the decrease of rainfall and runoff due to changes in land use; (3) the forecast shows that the land-use changes in the basin will lead to an increase in runoff coefficient in 2025. The increase of the runoff coefficient will bring some adverse effects, and relevant measures should be taken to increase the water storage capacity of urban areas. This study can help plan future management strategies for the study area land coverage and put forward a preventive plan for the possible adverse situation of runoff variation.

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Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13040647 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 647

Author(s):

Fan Sun ◽

Yi Wang ◽

Yaning Chen ◽

Yupeng Li ◽

Qifei Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Markov Model ◽

River Basin ◽

Arable Land ◽

Current Trend ◽

Ecological Crisis ◽

Tarim River ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

Desert Oasis

The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 in 1990 to 46,613 km2 in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km2 of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km2 in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis.

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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