The risk of non-O157 Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli strains has become a growing public health concern. Several studies characterized the behavior of E. coli O157:H7; however, no reports on the influence of multiple factors on E. coli O104:H4 are available. This study examined the effects and interactions of temperature (7 to 46°C), pH (4.5 to 8.5), and water activity (aw; 0.95 to 0.99) on the growth kinetics of E. coli O104:H4 and developed predictive models to estimate its growth potential in foods. Growth kinetics studies for each of the 23 variable combinations from a central composite design were performed. Growth data were used to obtain the lag phase duration (LPD), exponential growth rate, generation time, and maximum population density (MPD). These growth parameters as a function of temperature, pH, and aw as controlling factors were analyzed to generate second-order response surface models. The results indicate that the observed MPD was dependent on the pH, aw, and temperature of the growth medium. Increasing temperature resulted in a concomitant decrease in LPD. Regression analysis suggests that temperature, pH, and aw significantly affect the LPD, exponential growth rate, generation time, and MPD of E. coli O104:H4. A comparison between the observed values and those of E. coli O157:H7 predictions obtained by using the U.S. Department of Agriculture Pathogen Modeling Program indicated that E. coli O104:H4 grows faster than E. coli O157:H7. The developed models were validated with alfalfa and broccoli sprouts. These models will provide risk assessors and food safety managers a rapid means of estimating the likelihood that the pathogen, if present, would grow in response to the interaction of the three variables assessed.
Reappraisal of the effect of temperature on the growth kinetics of Aeromonas salmonicida
