Development and validation of a simple integer risk score for prediction of in-hospital mortality following Takotsubo syndrome

Abstract Background Ethnic disparities have been reported in cardiovascular disease. However, ethnic disparities in takotsubo syndrome (TTS) remain elusive. This study assessed differences in clinical characteristics between Japanese and European TTS patients and determined the impact of ethnicity on in-hospital outcomes. Methods TTS patients in Japan were enrolled from 10 hospitals and TTS patients in Europe were enrolled from 32 hospitals participating in the International Takotsubo Registry. Clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were compared between Japanese and European patients. Results A total of 503 Japanese and 1670 European patients were included. Japanese patients were older (72.6 ± 11.4 years vs. 68.0 ± 12.0 years; p < 0.001) and more likely to be male (18.5 vs. 8.4%; p < 0.001) than European TTS patients. Physical triggering factors were more common (45.5 vs. 32.0%; p < 0.001), and emotional triggers less common (17.5 vs. 31.5%; p < 0.001), in Japanese patients than in European patients. Japanese patients were more likely to experience cardiogenic shock during the acute phase (15.5 vs. 9.0%; p < 0.001) and had a higher in-hospital mortality (8.2 vs. 3.2%; p < 0.001). However, ethnicity itself did not appear to have an impact on in-hospital mortality. Machine learning approach revealed that the presence of physical stressors was the most important prognostic factor in both Japanese and European TTS patients. Conclusion Differences in clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes between Japanese and European TTS patients exist. Ethnicity does not impact the outcome in TTS patients. The worse in-hospital outcome in Japanese patients, is mainly driven by the higher prevalence of physical triggers. Trial Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique Identifier: NCT01947621.

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Validation of the Zwolle score for selection of very low-risk STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/ehjci/ehaa946.1840 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽

Author(s):

A Cordero ◽

B Cid ◽

P Monteiro ◽

J.M Garcia-Acuna ◽

M Rodriguez-Manero ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hospital Mortality ◽

Risk Score ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Low Risk ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Care Organization ◽

Grace Score ◽

Selection Of

Abstract Background The Zwolle risk score was designed to stratify the actual in-hospital mortality risk of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (p-PCI) but, also, for decision-making related to patients location in an intensive care unit or not. Since the GRACE score continues being the gold-standard for individual risk assessment in STEMI in most institutions we assessed the specificity of both scores for in-hospital mortality. Methods We assessed the accuracy of Zwolle risk score for in-hospital mortality estimation as compared to the GRACE score in all patients admitted for STEMI in 3 tertitary hospitals. Patients with Zwolle risk score <3 would qualify as “low risk”, 3–5 as “intermediate risk” and ≥6 as “high risk”. Patients with GRACE score <140 were classified as low-risk. Specificity, sensitivity and classification were assessed by ROC curves and the area under the curve (AUC). Results We included 4,446 patients, mean age 64.7 (13.6) years, 24% women and 39% with diabetes. Mean GRACE score was 157.3 (4.9) and Zwolle was 2.8 (3.3). In-hospital mortality was 10.6% (471 patients). Patients who died had higher GRACE score (218.4±4.9 vs. 149.6±37.5; p<0.001) and Zwolle score (7.6±4.3 vs. 2.3±2.18; p<0.001); a statistically significant increase of in-hospital mortality risk, adjusted adjusted by age, gender and revascularization, was observed with both scores (figure). A total of 1,629 patients (40.0%) were classified as low risk by the GRACE score and 2,962 (66.6%) by the Zwolle score; in-hospital mortality was 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively. Moreover, the was a significant increase of in-hospital mortality rate according to Zwolle categories (2.7%; 13.0%; 41.6%)The AUC of both score was the same (p=0.49) but the specificity of GRACE score <140 was 43.1% as compared to 72.6% obtained by Zwolle score <3; patients accurately classified was also lower with the GRACE score threshold (48.8% vs. 73.7%). Conclusions Selection of low-risk STEMI patients treated with p-PCI based on the Zwolle risk score has higher specificity than the GRACE score and might be useful for the care organization in clinical practice. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

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