Seeing what can(not) be seen: Confirmation bias, employment dynamics and climate change

AbstractSocial media has played a pivotal role in polarising views on politics, climate change, and more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic. Social media induced polarisation (SMIP) poses serious challenges to society as it could enable ‘digital wildfires’ that can wreak havoc worldwide. While the effects of SMIP have been extensively studied, there is limited understanding of the interplay between two key components of this phenomenon: confirmation bias (reinforcing one’s attitudes and beliefs) and echo chambers (i.e., hear their own voice). This paper addresses this knowledge deficit by exploring how manifestations of confirmation bias contributed to the development of ‘echo chambers’ at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. Thematic analysis of data collected from 35 participants involved in supply chain information processing forms the basis of a conceptual model of SMIP and four key cross-cutting propositions emerging from the data that have implications for research and practice.

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Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization

Journal of the European Economic Association ◽

10.1093/jeea/jvy025 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 17 (5) ◽

pp. 1470-1501 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Roland G Fryer ◽

Philipp Harms ◽

Matthew O Jackson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Death Penalty ◽

Significant Relationship ◽

Confirmation Bias ◽

The State ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Online Experiment ◽

The World ◽

Current Belief

Abstract We introduce a model in which agents observe signals about the state of the world, and some signals are open to interpretation. Our decision makers first interpret each signal based on their current belief and then form a posterior on the sequence of interpreted signals. This “double updating” leads to confirmation bias and can lead agents who observe the same information to polarize. We explore the model’s predictions in an online experiment in which individuals interpret research summaries about climate change and the death penalty. Consistent with the model, there is a significant relationship between an individual’s prior and their interpretation of the summaries; and over half of the subjects exhibit polarizing behavior.

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Introduction

New Perspectives on Structural Change ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198850113.003.0001 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-18

Author(s):

Adam Szirmai ◽

Neil Foster-McGregor

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Growth ◽

Political Economy ◽

Economic Development ◽

Structural Change ◽

Labour Demand ◽

Employment Dynamics ◽

Complex Interactions ◽

Socio Economic Development

Structural change is an important dimension of socio-economic development, closely connected with economic growth, as well as with innovation and technological change, international trade, political economy, employment dynamics and labour demand, inequality and poverty, and climate change, among many others. The current volume discusses the relationships between these and other factors and structural change, with this introductory chapter providing an analytic overview of the major themes discussed in the volume. The chapter seeks to discuss these issues in broad terms, highlighting the complex interactions between structural change and these different factors, thereby emphasizing the myriad ways through which structural change can impact upon—and be affected by—socio-economic outcomes.

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Confirmation Bias and the Persistence of Misinformation on Climate Change

Communication Research ◽

10.1177/00936502211028049 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 009365022110280

Author(s):

Yanmengqian Zhou ◽

Lijiang Shen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Experimental Study ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Confirmation Bias ◽

Message Processing ◽

Mixed Design ◽

Web Based ◽

Message Effectiveness ◽

Message Type ◽

Attitude Certainty

A web-based two (preexisting position: correct vs. incorrect) by two (message type: scientific information vs. misinformation) by three (messages) mixed design experimental study was conducted to test confirmation bias as a mechanism underlying the persistence of misinformation on climate change and to examine attitude certainty as a moderator of confirmation bias. Data collected with Qualtrics panels demonstrated robust confirmation bias in message and source perceptions, empathy, and perceived message effectiveness when individuals encountered messages consistent with their preexisting position on climate change, which in turn strengthened their preexisting position. The patterns of biased message processing and post-message position polarization were more extreme among climate change deniers. Attitude certainty significantly intensified polarization of position on climate change.

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Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20190063 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 723-729

Author(s):

Roslyn Gleadow ◽

Jim Hanan ◽

Alan Dorin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Computer Simulation ◽

Food Security ◽

European Countries ◽

Plant Interactions ◽

Plant Insect Interactions ◽

Native Habitat ◽

Insect Pollinators ◽

Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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