Spatially distributed energy balance snowmelt modelling in a mountainous river basin: estimation of meteorological inputs and verification of model results

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

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Integrated simulation of snow and glacier melt in water and energy balance-based, distributed hydrological modeling framework at Hunza River Basin of Pakistan Karakoram region

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1002/2014jd022666 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 120 (10) ◽

pp. 4889-4919 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Maheswor Shrestha ◽

Toshio Koike ◽

Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽

Yongkang Xue ◽

Lei Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Integrated Simulation ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Distributed Hydrological Modeling ◽

Hunza River

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Quantitative evaluation of the rainfall influence on streamflow in an inland mountainous river basin within Central Asia

Hydrological Sciences Journal ◽

10.1080/02626667.2017.1390314 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 63 (1) ◽

pp. 17-30 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Congjian Sun ◽

Yanjun Shen ◽

Yaning Chen ◽

Wei Chen ◽

Weibo Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central Asia ◽

River Basin ◽

Quantitative Evaluation ◽

Mountainous River

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Time-scale dependent mechanism of atmospheric CO2 concentration drivers of watershed water-energy balance

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8128 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jing Zhao

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

River Basin ◽

Time Scales ◽

Time Scale ◽

Hydrological Processes ◽

Multiple Time Scales ◽

Multiple Time ◽

The Wei River Basin ◽

Balance Dynamics ◽

The Impact

The elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2), as a key variable linking human activities and climate change, seriously affects the watershed hydrological processes. However, whether and how atmospheric CO2 influences the watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales have not been revealed. Based on long-term hydrometeorological data, the variation of non-stationary parameter n series in the Choudhury's equation in the mainstream of the Wei River Basin (WRB), the Jing River Basin (JRB) and Beiluo River Basin (BLRB), three typical Loess Plateau regions in China, was examined. Subsequently, the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was applied to explore the impact of CO2 on watershed water-energy balance dynamics at multiple time scales. Results indicate that (1) in the context of warming and drying condition, annual n series in the WRB displays a significantly increasing trend, while that in the JRB and BLRB presents non-significantly decreasing trends; (2) the non-stationary n series was divided into 3-, 7-, 18-, exceeding 18-year time scale oscillations and a trend residual. In the WRB and BLRB, the overall variation of n was dominated by the residual, whereas in the JRB it was dominated by the 7-year time scale oscillation; (3) the relationship between CO2&#160;concentration and n series was significant in the WRB except for 3-year time scale. In the JRB, CO2&#160;concentration and n series were significantly correlated on the 7- and exceeding 7-year time scales, while in the BLRB, such a significant relationship existed only on the 18- and exceeding 18-year time scales. (4) CO2-driven temperature rise and vegetation greening elevated the aridity index and evaporation ratio, thus impacting watershed water-energy balance dynamics. This study provided a deeper explanation for the possible impact of CO2 concentration on the watershed hydrological processes.

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The Long-term Projection of Surface Runoff in the Regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin based on Water-energy Balance

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/201824601099 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 246 ◽

pp. 01099

Author(s):

Jun Yin ◽

Zhe Yuan ◽

Run Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Balance ◽

River Basin ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Hanjiang River ◽

Distributed Hydrological Models

The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources. This study did a case study in regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin. A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance. This model can describe the quantity relationship among climatic factors, underlying surface and surface runoff. Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset coming from CMIP5, the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin can be addressed. The results showed that: (1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models, the hydrological model in this study has fewer parameters and simpler calculation methods. The model was good at simulating annual surface runoff. (2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the regions above Danjiangkou in Hanjiang River Basin. A 1°C increase in temperature might results in a surface runoff decrease of 2~5% and a 10% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 14~17%. (3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin were projected to increase by 1.4~2.3°C in 1961 to 1990 compared with that in 1961 to 1990. But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation. The surface runoff was excepted to decrease by 1.3~23.9% without considering the climate change projected by NorESM1-M and MIROC-ESM-CHEM, which was much different from other GCMs.

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