An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960-2017

2021 ◽  
pp. 126905
Author(s):  
Yanan Hu ◽  
Weili Duan ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Shan Zou ◽  
Patient Mindje Kayumba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Runoff Dynamics ◽  
Amu Darya River

Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. 681-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. A. Agal’tseva ◽  
M. V. Bolgov ◽  
T. Yu. Spektorman ◽  
M. D. Trubetskova ◽  
V. E. Chub
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Characteristics ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Amu Darya River

scholarly journals Consideration of climatic factors in the operating mode of hydraulic facilities in the Amudarya river basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 264 ◽  
pp. 03068
Author(s):  
Farrukh Kattakulov ◽  
Fotima Artikbekova ◽  
Zafar Gafurov ◽  
Gulnora Jumabaeva ◽  
Furqat Musulmanov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Amu Darya River

This research is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of climate change in the Amu Darya river basin using the global climate model and observational data. And also, the purpose of the study is to scale down and correct the offset of the GCF and adaptation to the Amu Darya river basin and assess the dynamic climate change and its future predictions of the impact on the hydraulic structures of the Amu Darya river basin. The offset correction was carried out on the basis of data from open sources from the archives of the world meteorological organizations and the analysis performed for the next 100 years. The article analyzes the results of the regions affected by the climate [1] from the point of view of the reduction of water resources, the disappearance of glaciers, an increase in temperature, and a decrease in precipitation. An increase in temperature leads to a steady decrease in the area of large glaciers, while small glaciers gradually completely disappear and a change in the ratio of solid and liquid precipitation alternately, which leads to a reduction in snow cover and is also accompanied by degradation and melting of snow cover permafrost in high mountain areas. For future projections of glacier area and melt water release, glacier volume is required. Climate change affects the hydrological regime of the river; this process worsens the operational regime of hydraulic structures in the Amu Darya basin. Such changes in glaciation, snow cover, and permafrost negatively affect the change in river flow and its distribution and the ecological assessment of the quality of the environment. Therefore, the study of changes in climatic conditions in the region and the development of climate change scenarios for the XXI century is carried out following the recommendations of the IPCC using the necessary programs.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Soil Erosion in the Xihe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanshan Guo ◽  
Zhengru Zhu ◽  
Leting Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Calibration Period

Climate change and human activities are the major factors affecting runoff and sediment load. We analyzed the inter-annual variation trend of the average rainfall, air temperature, runoff and sediment load in the Xihe River Basin from 1969–2015. Pettitt’s test and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to detect sudden change in hydro-meteorological variables and simulate the basin hydrological cycle, respectively. According to the simulation results, we explored spatial distribution of soil erosion in the watershed by utilizing ArcGIS10.0, analyzed the average erosion modulus by different type of land use, and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment load in changes. The results showed that: (1) From 1969–2015, both rainfall and air temperature increased, and air temperature increased significantly (p < 0.01) at 0.326 °C/10 a (annual). Runoff and sediment load decreased, and sediment load decreased significantly (p < 0.01) at 1.63 × 105 t/10 a. In 1988, air temperature experienced a sudden increase and sediment load decreased. (2) For runoff, R2 and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were 0.92 and 0.91 during the calibration period and 0.90 and 0.87 during the validation period, for sediment load, R2 and Ens were 0.60 and 0.55 during the calibration period and 0.70 and 0.69 during the validation period, meeting the model’s applicability requirements. (3) Soil erosion was worse in the upper basin than other regions, and highest in cultivated land. Climate change exacerbates runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of −26.54% and −8.8%, respectively. Human activities decreased runoff and sediment load with overall contribution to the total change of 126.54% and 108.8% respectively. Runoff and sediment load change in the Xihe River Basin are largely caused by human activities.

Integrated assessment of the landuse change and climate change impacts on the sediment yield in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand

CATENA ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 209 ◽  
pp. 105859
Author(s):  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Binod Bhatta ◽  
Rocky Talchabhadel ◽  
Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Landuse Change ◽  
Songkhram River

scholarly journals Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Groundwater Level Variations in the Amu Darya Delta

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2869
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Pan ◽  
Weishi Wang ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Yue Huang ◽  
Philippe De Maeyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Amu Darya ◽  
Pearson Correlation Analysis ◽  
Groundwater Dynamic

In the past few decades, the shrinkage of the Aral Sea is one of the biggest ecological catastrophes caused by human activity. To quantify the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on groundwater, the spatiotemporal groundwater dynamic characteristics in the Amu Darya Delta of the Aral Sea from 1999 to 2017 were analyzed, using the groundwater level, climate conditions, remote sensing data, and irrigation information. Statistics analysis was adopted to analyze the trend of groundwater variation, including intensity, periodicity, spatial structure, while the Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on the variabilities of the groundwater level. Results reveal that the local groundwater dynamic has varied considerably. From 1999 to 2002, the groundwater level dropped from −189 cm to −350 cm. Until 2017, the groundwater level rose back to −211 cm with fluctuation. Seasonally, the fluctuation period of groundwater level and irrigation water was similar, both were about 18 months. Spatially, the groundwater level kept stable within the irrigation area and bare land but fluctuated drastically around the irrigation area. The Pearson correlation analysis reveals that the dynamic of the groundwater level is closely related to irrigation activity within the irrigation area (Nukus: −0.583), while for the place adjacent to the Aral Sea, the groundwater level is closely related to the Large Aral Sea water level (Muynak: 0.355). The results of PCA showed that the cumulative contribution rate of the first three components exceeds 85%. The study reveals that human activities have a great impact on groundwater, effective management, and the development of water resources in arid areas is an essential prerequisite for ecological protection.

scholarly journals Vegetation Changes and Their Response to Global Change Based on NDVI in the Koshi River Basin of Central Himalayas Since 2000

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6644
Author(s):  
Xue Wu ◽  
Xiaomin Sun ◽  
Zhaofeng Wang ◽  
Yili Zhang ◽  
Qionghuan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Central Himalayas ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Vegetation Activity ◽  
Koshi River Basin

Vegetation forms a main component of the terrestrial biosphere owing to its crucial role in land cover and climate change, which has been of wide concern for experts and scholars. In this study, we used MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, land cover data, meteorological data, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data to do vegetation change and its relationship with climate change. First, we investigated the spatio-temporal patterns and variations of vegetation activity in the Koshi River Basin (KRB) in the central Himalayas from 2000 to 2018. Then, we combined NDVI change with climate factors using the linear method to examine their relationship, after that we used the literature review method to explore the influence of human activities to vegetation change. At the regional scale, the NDVIGS (Growth season NDVI) significantly increased in the KRB in 2000–2018, with significant greening over croplands in KRB in India. Further, the croplands and forest in the KRB in Nepal were mainly influenced by human interference. For example, improvements in agricultural fertilization and irrigation facilities as well as the success of the community forestry program in the KRB in Nepal increased the NDVIGS of the local forest. Climate also had a certain impact on the increase in NDVIGS. A significant negative correlation was observed between NDVIGS trend and the annual minimum temperature trend (TMN) in the KRB in India, but an insignificant positive correlation was noted between it and the total annual precipitation trend (PRE). NDVIGS significantly decreased over a small area, mainly around Kathmandu, due to urbanization. Increases in NDVIGS in the KRB have thus been mainly affected by human activities, and climate change has helped increase it to a certain extent.

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