The nitrogen (N) loss associated with intensive agricultural activities is a significant cause of eutrophication and algal blooms in freshwater ecosystems. Taihu Lake has experienced serious surface water quality deterioration and eutrophication problems since the 1980s. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of fertilization changes since the 1980s on the N loss with runoff and leaching in the rice–wheat cropping rotation system. According to the results published in the literature since the 1980s, we set up four fertilization scenarios—N1980s: a fertilization rate of 350 kg N·ha−1·year−1 with 30% in manure fertilization to simulate fertilization in the 1980s; NA1990s: a fertilization rate of 500 kg N·ha−1·year−1 with 10% in manure fertilization to simulate fertilization in the early 1990s; NL1990s: fertilization rate of 600 kg N·ha−1·year−1 with 10% in manure fertilization to simulate fertilization in the late 1990s; and N2000s: fertilization rate of 550 kg N·ha−1·year−1 with all chemicals to simulate fertilization in the 2000s. Then, we calibrated and validated the DNDC (denitrification–decomposition) model through field experiments in two rice–wheat rotation seasons from November 2011 to October 2013 and simulated the N loss with runoff and leaching since the 1980s. The results show that N losses with leaching in the four periods (N 1980s, NA1990s, NL1990s, and N2000s) were 5.2 ± 2.1, 9.4 ± 3.2, 14.4 ± 4.6 and 13.5 ± 4.6 kg N·ha−1·year−1, respectively. N losses with surface runoff were 7.9 ± 3.9, 18.3 ± 7.2, 25.4 ± 10.2, and 26.5 ± 10.6 kg N·ha−1·year−1, respectively. The total N loss through runoff and leaching showed an increasing trend from 1980 to the late 1990s, when it reached its peak. The increase in N export to water due to fertilizer application occurs mainly during the rainy season from March to August, and especially from June to August, when rainfall events and intensive rice fertilization activities are frequent. After the 1990s, when the fertilizer rate was above 500 kg N·ha−1·year−1, the crop yields no longer increased significantly, which indicates that the optimized fertilization rate to balance crop yields and N loss to water is lower than 500 kg N·ha−1·year−1. The increase in fertilizer use has been unnecessary since the early 1990s, and at least about 30% of the N loss could have been prevented without reducing crop yields.
Effects of Changing Fertilization since the 1980s on Nitrogen Runoff and Leaching in Rice–Wheat Rotation Systems, Taihu Lake Basin