Why Does the Abe Government’s Approval Rating Always Recover?

Author(s):  
Masaru Kohno
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Kriner ◽  
Eric Schickler

Although congressional investigations have provided some of the most dramatic moments in American political history, they have often been dismissed as mere political theater. But these investigations are far more than grandstanding. This book shows that congressional investigations are a powerful tool for members of Congress to counter presidential aggrandizement. By shining a light on alleged executive wrongdoing, investigations can exert significant pressure on the president and materially affect policy outcomes. This book constructs the most comprehensive overview of congressional investigative oversight to date, analyzing nearly 13,000 days of hearings, spanning more than a century, from 1898 through 2014. The book examines the forces driving investigative power over time and across chambers, and identifies how hearings might influence the president’s strategic calculations through the erosion of the president’s public approval rating, and uncover the pathways through which investigations have shaped public policy. Put simply, by bringing significant political pressure to bear on the president, investigations often afford Congress a blunt, but effective check on presidential power—without the need to worry about veto threats or other hurdles such as Senate filibusters. In an era of intense partisan polarization and institutional dysfunction, the book delves into the dynamics of congressional investigations and how Congress leverages this tool to counterbalance presidential power.


Public Voices ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Terry Newell

On August 9,1974, Gerald Ford took the oath as president when Richard Nixon resigned in the wake of Watergate.   Ford's inaugural remarks and the actions that followed, aimed at restoring trust in government and gaining the legitimacy he needed to confront national problems, rested on both his character and his leadership talent.  His public approval rating soared.  Thirty-one days later, Ford spoke to the nation again, announcing his pardon of the disgraced former president.  That speech and the actions connected to it also depended on Ford's character and leadership skills.  Yet, his approval plummeted, dooming his prospects to win the 1976 election. This one-month period offers important lessons for public leaders who want to both be good and do good.  Ford succeeded in the first speech and failed in the second.   The ability to articulate a transcendent public purpose, persuade the public in a compelling way, and master the art of building political support proved decisive in both cases.   Also decisive was his character and the way he sought to call forth the moral character of the nation.   


2012 ◽  
pp. 41-55
Author(s):  
Marco Morini

The economy matters. This is one of the dogmas taught us by those who have studied the history of the American presidential elections. But is this collective perception of the influence of economic data on individual electoral behaviour confirmed by statistical analysis of the history of presidential elections? This study shows that the most commonly used economic indicators are poor predictors of election outcomes, and also that variation in the approval rating of the incumbent president is a variable independent from the real economic data.


2020 ◽  
pp. 002190962096676
Author(s):  
Eric Chen-hua Yu ◽  
Kah-yew Lim

This paper analyzes the extent to which the performances of local and national governments can shape local election outcomes. Specifically, we use various waves of survey data from Taiwan’s Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether a person’s assessments of local and central government performances affect his/her vote for the incumbent party candidate. Our empirical findings partially verify the so-called “referendum theory” and can be summarized as follows: First, voters who hold a positive assessment of the performance of local government are more likely to vote for an incumbent who seeks reelection, but this is not necessarily the case for an incumbent party candidate in an open-seat contest. Second, Taiwan’s local elections cannot be regarded as referenda on the central government because the central government approval rating does not consistently affect vote choices across different types/levels of local elections.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Sara Bidah ◽  
Omar Zakary ◽  
Mostafa Rachik ◽  
Hanane Ferjouchia

In this paper, we present a mathematical model that describes agree-disagree opinions during polls. We first present the different compartments of the model. Then, using the next-generation matrix method, we derive thresholds of the stability of equilibria. We consider two sets of data from the Reuters polling system regarding the approval rating of the U.S presidential in two terms. These two weekly polls data track the percentage of Americans who approve and disapprove of the way the President manages his work. To validate the reality of the underlying model, we use nonlinear least-squares regression to fit the model to actual data. In the first poll, we consider only 31 weeks to estimate the parameters of the model, and then, we compare the rest of the data with the outcome of the model over the remaining 21 weeks. We show that our model fits correctly the real data. The second poll data is collected for 115 weeks. We estimate again the parameters of the model, and we show that our model can predict the poll outcome in the next weeks, thus, whether the need for some control strategies or not. Finally, we also perform several computational and statistical experiments to validate the proposed model in this paper. To study the influence of various parameters on these thresholds and to identify the most influential parameters, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of the small perturbation near a parameter value on the value of the threshold. An uncertainty analysis is performed to evaluate the forecast inaccuracy in the outcome variable due to uncertainty in the estimation of the parameters.


Subject The impact of recent by-elections and an ongoing corruption scandal. Significance Lee Wan-koo resigned as premier on April 21 after just two months in post. He and seven other associates of President Park Geun-hye were named in an interview and suicide note by Sung Wan-jong -- former head of a construction firm -- who hanged himself on April 9. All deny taking money from Sung, but Lee's position became untenable. In better news for Park, her Saenuri Party won three hitherto opposition-held seats in by-elections on April 29. Her approval rating as of May 1 was 39%, up four points in a week. Impacts Park's personal popularity is holding up, but this does not imply effective policy-making ahead. The main opposition, which lost all four by-elections, is in turmoil and may split. Park may try to regain popularity by easing policy toward North Korea.


Subject The pre-election outlook. Significance The left-leaning Frente Amplio (FA) government, in power since 2005, has seen its approval rating fall, even among its supporters. A cloudy economic outlook over the coming months is likely to dampen the government’s approval rating further. Falling support for the FA should mean gains for the opposition Partido Nacional (PN) and Partido Colorado (PC) in the October 2019 elections, although they may struggle to form a cohesive coalition. Impacts Coalition-building will become increasingly public, but also increasingly difficult. The sluggish economy is unlikely to pick up in 2019, marring the FA’s re-election hopes and any incoming government’s outlook. Social pressures will rise both before and after the elections.


Subject The November 19 general elections. Significance Ahead of November presidential and congressional elections, divisions within the centre-left government coalition and questions about its future have been accentuated by the Socialist Party’s choice of Senator Alejandro Guillier, an independent, as its presidential nominee, rather than former President Ricardo Lagos (2000-06), a longstanding member of the party. Impacts A recent increase in local share prices suggests that the prospect of a Pinera government would boost flagging business confidence. The Bachelet administration’s low approval rating, currently around 25%, will be an electoral liability for the government coalition. The next Congress is likely to be more atomised and, for the government, more difficult to manage.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document