scholarly journals The development of a localised HIV epidemic and the associated excess mortality burden in a rural area of South Africa

Author(s):  
P. Mee ◽  
K. Kahn ◽  
C.W. Kabudula ◽  
R.G. Wagner ◽  
F. X. Gómez-Olivé ◽  
...  

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in South Africa rapidly developed into a major pandemic. Here we analyse the development of the epidemic in a rural area of the country. The data used were collected between 1992 and 2013 in a longitudinal population survey, the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Study, in the northeast of the country. Throughout the period of study mortality rates were similar in all villages, suggesting that there were multiple index cases evenly spread geographically. These were likely to have been returning migrant workers. For those aged below 39 years the HIV mortality rate was higher for women, above this age it was higher for men. This indicates the protective effect of greater access to HIV testing and treatment among older women. The recent convergence of mortality rates for Mozambicans and South Africans indicates that the former refugee population are being assimilated into the host community. More than 60% of the deaths occurring in this community between 1992 and 2013 could be attributed directly or indirectly to HIV. Recently there has been an increasing level of non-HIV mortality which has important implications for local healthcare provision. This study demonstrates how evidence from longitudinal analyses can support healthcare planning.

2019 ◽  
Vol 220 (5) ◽  
pp. 841-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa J Blumenthal ◽  
Charlotte Schutz ◽  
David Barr ◽  
Michael Locketz ◽  
Vickie Marshall ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundDespite increasing numbers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected South Africans receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of mortality. Approximately 25% of patients treated for TB have microbiologically unconfirmed diagnoses. We assessed whether elevated Kaposi’s sarcoma–associated herpesvirus (KSHV) viral load (VL) contributes to mortality in hospitalized HIV-infected patients investigated for TB.MethodsSix hundred eighty-two HIV-infected patients admitted to Khayelitsha Hospital, South Africa, were recruited, investigated for TB, and followed for 12 weeks. KSHV serostatus, peripheral blood KSHV-VL, and KSHV-associated clinical correlates were evaluated.ResultsMedian CD4 count was 62 (range, 0–526) cells/μL; KSHV seropositivity was 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27%–34%); 5.8% had detectable KSHV-VL (median, 199.1 [range, 13.4–2.2 × 106] copies/106 cells); 22% died. Elevated KSHV-VL was associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 6.5 [95% CI, 1.3–32.4]) in patients without TB or other microbiologically confirmed coinfections (n = 159). Six patients had “possible KSHV-inflammatory cytokine syndrome” (KICS): 5 died, representing significantly worse survival (P < .0001), and 1 patient was diagnosed with KSHV-associated multicentric Castleman disease at autopsy.ConclusionsGiven the association of mortality with elevated KSHV-VL in critically ill HIV-infected patients with suspected but not microbiologically confirmed TB, KSHV-VL and KICS criteria may guide diagnostic and therapeutic evaluation.


Dermatology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 235 (5) ◽  
pp. 396-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caradee Yael Wright ◽  
Thandi Kapwata ◽  
Elvira Singh ◽  
Adele C. Green ◽  
Peter Baade ◽  
...  

The incidence of cutaneous melanoma (CM) is increasing in countries around the world. However, little is known about melanoma trends in African countries by population group. We studied CM mortality in South Africa from 1997 to 2014 to partly address this knowledge gap. Unit record mortality data for all South Africans who died from CM (n = 8,537) were obtained from Statistics South Africa. Join-point regression models were used to assess whether there was a statistically significant change in the direction and/or magnitude of the annual trends in CM mortality. A significant increasing trend of 11% per year was observed in age-adjusted mortality rates in men between 2000 and 2005 (p < 0.01), rising from 2 to 3 per 100,000. There was also a statistically significant increase of 180% per year among White South Africans from 1997 to 1999 (p < 0.05) and of 3% from 1999 to 2014 (p < 0.01). These results may be used to inform CM awareness campaigns and will motivate efforts to improve the collection and analysis of relevant statistics regarding the present burden of CM in South Africa.


2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Blaauw ◽  
Anmar Pretorius ◽  
Christie Schoeman ◽  
Rinie Schenck

There has been an increasing inflow of migrants and refugees into South Africa during the last two decades. The origin of these migrants is mainly from South Africas long-established sources of migrant workers, including countries from the Southern African Development Community. Over the last decade, African immigrants have encountered brutal manifestations of resentment at their presence in South Africa. The reasons for this are multifaceted, but one of the pertinent perceptions is that immigrants from the countrys northern borders are taking South Africans jobs. It is often claimed that casual immigrant workers are willing to work for very low daily wages. In doing so, they get temporary employment in the informal and formal economy at the expense of South African workers, who have much higher reservation wages in the same informal labour market. This is the first study to focus on the wages of migrant day labourers in South Africa by investigating the determinants of day labour wages for migrant day labourers from Zimbabwe. The respondents for this study were interviewed during the first countrywide survey of day labourers in South Africa during 2007. The paper concludes that the income from migrant day labourers from Zimbabwe often exceeds that of the average day labourer in South Africa. The Zimbabweans are, in many cases, better qualified than the average day labourer in South Africa. The main determinants of these migrant wages are their formal level of schooling, language proficiency and the completion of vocational training courses.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshifhiwa Nkwenika ◽  
Samuel Manda

Abstract Background: Young adult mortality is very significant in South Africa due to the influence of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis (TB), Injuries and Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). Previous analyses have mainly focused on assessing the time effect of age and period separately. However, health outcomes often depend on three-time scales, namely age, period, and cohort, which are linearly interlinked. Using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models, this study estimated the time effects of age, period, and cohort on HIV and TB mortality among young adults in South Africa. Methods: HIV and TB mortality data and mid population estimates were obtained from Statistics South Africa for the period 1997 to 2015. Mortality data are based on deaths reported to the Department of Home Affairs where the underlying cause of death was HIV or TB based on the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) definition. Observed HIV/AIDS deaths were adjusted for under-reporting, misclassification, and systematic proportion from ill-defined natural deaths. Three-year age, period, and birth cohort intervals for 15-64 years, 1997-2015 and 1934-2000 respectively were used. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis using the Poisson distribution was used to compute the effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality due to TB and HIV. Results: A total of 5, 825,502 adult deaths were recorded from the period 1997 to 2015 of which, 910,731 (15.6%) and 252,101 (4.3%) were attributed to TB and HIV, respectively. For both observed mortality rate and estimated relative effects, concave down associations were found between TB, HIV mortality rates and period, age with peaks, at 36-38 and 30-32 years, respectively. A downward trend and inverted V-shape between TB and HIV mortality by birth cohort was found, respectively. Conclusions: The study found an inverse U-shaped association between TB-related mortality and age, period, and general downward trend with a birth cohort for deaths reported between 1997 and 2015. A concave down relationship between HIV-related mortality and age, period, and inverted V-shaped with birth cohort was found. Our findings have shed more light on HIV and TB mortality rates across different age groups, the effect of changes in the overall TB and HIV management and care on the mortality rates, and whether the mortality rates depend on the year an individual was born.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Geffen ◽  
Alex Welte

We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules – usually some simplification of ‘real world’ processes as we understand them. Computing details of informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an interest in the epidemic.


2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Surgeon Xolo

In dealing with this topic I will draw from my personal experience as a former disadvantaged gifted South African from the underdeveloped rural area in KwaZulu-Natal. I will commence my argument by stating that every child born in this world has some kind of gift which, if well developed, can benefit the community, the nation or even the world in general. However, I painfully but willingly accept that not everyone is mathematically gifted. Subsequently I will proceed to suggest things that can be done in order to help the gifted disadvantaged South Africans. This assistance will include motivation, career guidance, and different kinds of specialised intervention programs. Having pointed out all these factors, I will conclude by appealing to all concerned to help in the process of developing the potential of the gifted disadvantaged in South Africa.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshifhiwa Nkwenika ◽  
Samuel Manda

Abstract Background: Young adult mortality is very significant in South Africa due to the influence of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis (TB), Injuries and Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). Previous analyses have mainly focused on assessing time effect of age and period separately. However, health outcomes often depend on three-time scales of age, period and cohort, which are linearly interlinked. Using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models, this study estimated the time effects of age, period and cohort on HIV and TB mortality among young adults in South Africa.Methods: HIV and TB mortality data and mid population estimates were obtained from Statistics South Africa for the period 1997 to 2015. Mortality data are based on deaths reported to the Department of Home Affairs where the underlying cause of death was HIV or TB based on the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) definition. Observed HIV/AIDS deaths were adjusted for under-reporting, misclassification and systematic proportion from ill-defined natural deaths. Three-year age, period, and birth cohort intervals for 15–64 years, 1997–2015 and 1934–2000 respectively were used. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis using the Poisson distribution was used to compute the effects of age, period and cohort on mortality due to TB and HIV.Results: A total of 5, 825,502 adult deaths were recorded from the period 1997 to 2015 of which, 910,731 (15.6%) and 252,101 (4.3%) were attributed to TB and HIV, respectively. For both observed mortality rate and estimated relative effects, concave down associations were found between TB, HIV mortality rates and period, age with peaks, at 36–38 and 30–32 years, respectively. A downward trend and inverted V-shape between TB and HIV mortality by birth cohort was found, respectively.Conclusions: The study found an inverse U-shaped association between TB-related mortality and age, period, and general downward trend with birth cohort for deaths reported between 1997 and 2015. A concave down relationship between HIV-related mortality and age, period, and inverted V-shaped with birth cohort was found. Our findings have shed more light on HIV and TB mortality rates across different age groups, effect of changes in the overall TB and HIV management and care on the mortality rates and whether or not the mortality rates depended on the year an individual was born.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-444
Author(s):  
Amanuel Isak Tewolde

Many scholars and South African politicians characterize the widespread anti-foreigner sentiment and violence in South Africa as dislike against migrants and refugees of African origin which they named ‘Afro-phobia’. Drawing on online newspaper reports and academic sources, this paper rejects the Afro-phobia thesis and argues that other non-African migrants such as Asians (Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis and Chinese) are also on the receiving end of xenophobia in post-apartheid South Africa. I contend that any ‘outsider’ (White, Asian or Black African) who lives and trades in South African townships and informal settlements is scapegoated and attacked. I term this phenomenon ‘colour-blind xenophobia’. By proposing this analytical framework and integrating two theoretical perspectives — proximity-based ‘Realistic Conflict Theory (RCT)’ and Neocosmos’ exclusivist citizenship model — I contend that xenophobia in South Africa targets those who are in close proximity to disadvantaged Black South Africans and who are deemed outsiders (e.g., Asian, African even White residents and traders) and reject arguments that describe xenophobia in South Africa as targeting Black African refugees and migrants.


Politeia ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mbekezeli Comfort Mkhize ◽  
Kongko Louis Makau

This article argues that the 2015 xenophobic violence was allowed to spread due to persistent inaction by state officials. While the utterances of King Goodwill Zwelithini have in part fuelled the attacks, officials tend to perceive acts of xenophobia as ordinary crimes. This perception has resulted in ill-advised responses from the authorities, allowing this kind of hate crime against foreign nationals to engulf the whole country. In comparison with similar attacks in 2008, the violent spree in 2015 is characterised by a stronger surge in criminal activities. The militancy showcased fed a sense of insecurity amongst foreigners, creating a situation inconsistent with the country’s vaunted respect for human rights and the rule of law. Investors lost confidence in the country’s outlook, owing in part to determined denialism in government circles regarding the targeting of foreigners. While drawing from existing debates, the article’s principal objective is to critically examine the structural problems that enable xenophobia to proliferate and the (in)effectiveness of responses to the militancy involved in the 2015 attacks. Of particular interest are the suggested responses that could be effective in curbing future violence. The article concludes that xenophobia is systemic in post-apartheid South Africa. Strong cooperation between the government, national and international organisations could provide the basis for successful anti-xenophobia measures. The article further argues that the country is obliged to find a sustainable solution to the predicament for humanitarian reasons firstly, and in recognition of the support South Africans received from its African counterparts during the liberation struggle.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 170-178
Author(s):  
Khatija Bibi Khan

The rapid production of films of diversity in post-1994 South Africa has unfortunately not been matched by critical works on film. Part of the reason is that some of the films recycle old themes that celebrate the worst in black people. Another possible reason could be that a good number of films wallow in personality praise, and certainly of Mandela, especially after his demise. Despite these problems of film criticism in post-1994 South Africa, it appears that some new critics have not felt compelled to waste their energy on analysing the Bantustan film – a kind of film that was made for black people by the apartheid system but has re-surfaced after 1994 in different ways. The patent lack of more critical works on film that engages the identities and social imaginaries of young and white South Africans is partly addressed in SKIN – a film that registers the mental growth and spiritual development of Sandra’s multiple selves. This article argues that SKIN portrays the racial neurosis of the apartheid system; and the question of identity affecting young white youths during and after apartheid is experienced at the racial, gender and sex levels.


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