How Do Remittances Shape Electoral Strategies Back Home? Evidence from Mexico’s 2006 Presidential Election

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (03) ◽  
pp. 55-79
Author(s):  
Cristina Álvarez-Mingote
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Strategies

ABSTRACTHow does international migration affect political parties’ electoral strategies in the sending countries? This article argues that remittances help political parties decide whom to target during elections. Drawing from theories of vote targeting and those on the effects of remittances, this study addresses how political parties’ electoral strategies follow the specific characteristics of remittance recipients. Using individual-level data from Mexico’s 2006 presidential elections, the results show that receiving remittances had a significant impact on experiencing electoral targeting, especially by the then-incumbent PAN. This study reveals the importance of remittances in shaping the strategies of Mexican political parties.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
WALTER R. MEBANE ◽  
JASJEET S. SEKHON
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Stochastic Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Ideal Points ◽  
Election Studies

Eligible voters have been coordinating their turnout and vote decisions for the House of Representatives in midterm elections. Coordination is a noncooperative rational expectations equilibrium. Stochastic choice models estimated using individual-level data from U.S. National Election Studies surveys of the years 1978–1998 support the coordinating model and reject a nonstrategic model. The coordinating model shows that many voters have incentives to change their votes between the presidential year and midterm after learning the outcome of the presidential election. But this mechanism alone does not explain the size of midterm cycles. The largest source of loss of support for the president's party at midterm is a regular pattern in which the median differences between the voters' ideal points and the parties' policy positions have become less favorable for the president's party than they were at the time of the presidential election (nonvoters show the same pattern). The interelection changes are not consistent with the theory of surge and decline.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Approach for Validation of Election Results

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-31
Author(s):  
R.K. Ogundeji ◽  
J.N. Onyeka-Ubaka
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Election Results

Election process and results in many countries have resulted in both political and economic instability of that country. Fair and credible election process and results must be evidence-based and statistical proven. This study employed a Bayesian procedure for the validation of election results. Based on Nigerian 2011 and 2015 presidential election results, Bayesian credible intervals were obtained to assess the credibility of Nigeria presidential election results. The study explores Bayesian methods using a Bayesian model called beta-binomial conjugate model to compute posterior probability of electoral votes cast and confirm if these votes are within Bayesian credible intervals. The results obtained showed that election outcomes for the two major political parties in Nigeria 2011 presidential election are not within Bayesian credible bounds while 2015 presidential election results are within computed Bayesian credible bounds. Also, in contrast to frequentist approach, applied Bayesian methodology exhibited smaller variance which is an indication that Bayesian approach is more efficient. Thus, for election to be fair, credible and acceptable by the electorates, Bayesian approach can be used to validate electoral process and results. Keywords: Bayesian Methods, Bayesian Credible Intervals, Beta-Binomial Model, Empirical Bayes, Nigeria Presidential Elections.

Juscelino Kubitschek and the 1960 Presidential Election

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-145
Author(s):  
Sheldon Maram
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Direct Election

Brazilian specialists have long recognised the importance of the 1960 presidential elections, which set in motion a process that culminated in a 21—year military dictatorship. Only in 1989 did Brazilians witness once again the direct election of a president. Nonetheless, scholarly literature on this event is sparse and often tends toward the ahistorical view that the election of Jânio Quadros in 1960 was part of an inexorable process. Almost entirely ignored are the reasons why Brazil's largest political party, the Partido Social Democrático or PSD, nominated for president a weak candidate, Marshal of the Brazilian Army Henrique Teixeira Lott.1Clearly, Lott himself was not part of a praetorian guard that imposed his candidacy. Indeed, the Marshal was a reluctant candidate, who offered to withdraw in October 1959 in favour of a ‘national unity candidate’.2 In my view Lott's nomination had much more to do with a complex series of manoeuvres carried out by Brazil's president Juscelino Kubitschek (1956–61) than with his own actions. For Kubitschek, the political parties and presidential aspirants in 1960 were merely pawns in his highly personalistic vision of the political process. Constitutionally barred from seeking immediate re—election, Kubitschek initially manoeuvred to induce his party, the PSD, not to run its own presidential candidate. When this effort failed, he displayed, at the very least, ambivalence regarding the fate of the party's candidate.An analysis of Kubitschek's actions and motivations presents methodological challenges to the historian. Historians traditionally rely heavily on written documentation to support their analysis of actions and motivations.

The trail of votes in Russia’s 1999 Duma and 2000 presidential elections

2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Myagkov ◽  
Peter C. Ordeshook
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party System ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Economic Changes

Russia’s array of political parties, based largely on Moscow-centered personalities with presidential aspirations rather than coherent policy programs, continued its seemingly directionless evolution in 1999 with the appearance of two new ‘parties’—Otechestvo and Edinstvo—each designed primarily to facilitate presidential aspirations. In contrast and despite wrenching economic changes, Russia from 1991 through 1996, at least, offers the picture of a surprisingly stable electorate in which the flow of votes across elections from one party or candidate to the next follows a coherent and not altogether unpredictable pattern. Aggregate election returns suggests that this pattern persisted through the 1999 Duma balloting to the 2000 presidential election. The KPRF, as well as Yabloko, won nearly as many votes in 1999 as in 1996, while the votes lost by Our Home Is Russia, the LDPR, Lebed’s allies in 1996, and a bevy of other small and not altogether anti-reform parties nearly account for Otechestvo and Edinstvo totals. Here, however, we offer a close examination of official rayon-level election returns from both 1999 and 2000 and conclude that this picture of stability masks the importance we ought to attribute to the influence of regional governors and their abilities to direct the votes of their electorates in a nearly wholesale fashion. We argue, moreover, that this conclusion is important to the matter of reforming Russia’s institutions so as to encourage a coherent party system. Specifically, rather than focus on electoral institutional reform, we argue that the principal culprit in explaining the failure of a coherent party system to materialize is the influence of Russia’s super-presidentialism.

Spatial Preferences and Voter Choices in the Dutch Electorate

1985 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-263
Author(s):  
LEE E. DUTTER
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Relevant Issue ◽  
Ideological Position ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Endogenous Variables

Voters' preferences for political parties and their choices can be modeled as a set of equations with three endogenous variables: (1) the perceived distance between the voter's ideological position and that of a party; (2) the utility that the voter assigns to a party; and (3) behavior—whether or not a voter votes for a given party. Spatial models of party competition imply that (1) the perceived ideological distance between a voter and a party is a function of the perceived spatial distances between the voter's most preferred point on each electorally relevant issue and the party's position—the greater these distances, the greater the perceived ideological distance; (2) the utility assigned to each party is a function of this ideological distance, as well as the issue distances; and (3) the higher the assigned utility, the higher the probability that a voter votes for a given party, but the greater the ideological and issue distances, the lower this probability. These hypotheses are operationalized and tested with individual-level data from the 1970-1973 Dutch Election Study.

Dual-Ballot Elections and Political Parties

1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSEPH A. SCHLESINGER ◽  
MILDRED S. SCHLESINGER
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Number Of Parties

Although the effect of electoral rules on the number of parties in democracies has been well explored, little attention had been paid to their effect on the parties themselves. The authors examine this problem within the context of French two-ballot rules, which illuminate partisan distinctions rather than blur them as single-ballot rules do. Earlier studies demonstrated that the dual-ballot rules used in French legislative elections allowed four ways of winning, in response to which four stable parties emerged. The French presidential election further illuminated these distinctions. Because there is only one winner, the contest becomes personalized, heightening partisan distinctions in electoral strategies, appeals, and organization. Examining this effect in the 1995 presidential election, the authors conclude that the French dual ballot provides a tool for understanding not only French parties but also parties in which single-ballot rules force all to use similar electoral strategies and appeals.

Politics of the Civil War and Reconstruction

2020 ◽  
pp. 95-114
Author(s):  
Erik B. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Civil War Era ◽  
Political Realignment ◽  
Radical Reconstruction

This essay traces political developments in the Civil War Era between 1861 and 1877. In doing so, it argues that unpredictability and uncertainty defined the politics of the Civil War and Reconstruction. Political parties and party labels were fluid and malleable in the midst of contemporary predictions of political realignment. The essay attempts to interpret the major events of the period through this lens of political instability. It outlines party politics during the Civil War in both the North and the South, discusses the Lincoln administration, and interprets the elections of 1862 and 1864. The essay then moves to the politics of Reconstruction, discussing the clash between Andrew Johnson and Congress, Radical Reconstruction, and the presidential elections of 1868 and 1872. The essay concludes with political developments in the South, the failure of Reconstruction, and the presidential election of 1876.

scholarly journals Koalisi Partai Politik Islam Pada PILPRES 2019: Antara Ideologis dan Pragmatis

POLITEA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 189
Author(s):  
M. Nur Rofiq Addiansyah
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Islamic Political Parties

<p class="06IsiAbstrak">This paper will discuss about how coalition forms are carried out by political parties, especially islamic political parties. What is the coalition process, what are the motives of the coalition, and how the formation of the coalition formed will be discussed in this paper. During the Presidential and Vice President Elections in 2019, there were two candidate pairs competing, namely the Ir.Joko Widodo-KH.Maruf Amin and the couple Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno.</p><p class="06IsiAbstrak">This paper uses a qualitative method with the type of case study. The electoral realm of the 2019 Presidential Elections became the empirical space discussed. The 2019 presidential election was supported by a large coalition of Jokowi-Maruf supporters and Prabowo-Sandi suppoters. These two pairs of candidates are supported by political parties based on the Islamic and nationally voters. From this 2019 Presidential Election, we can see the ideological movements of political parties in Indonesia. <em>First</em>, political parties are still oriented towards victory rather than ideology and policy. <em>Second</em>, the ideology of political parties is increasingly blurred. <em>Third</em>, the influence of the electoral system which led to the escape of the ideology of political parties.</p>

scholarly journals Vote Overreporting: The Statistical and Policy Implications

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily Jones
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Bias Analysis ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Turnout Rate ◽  
Level Data

Voting is a critical way for citizens to gain representation for their interests, as well as the most direct way that most citizens participate in the political process. Yet, many citizens fail to cast their vote on election day. America's comparatively low turnout rate has motivated reams of research on voting behaviors, but researchers are limited by data quality problems. In particular, vote overreporting, when systematic, can bias analysis of who votes and why, which hampers efforts to understand and increase turnout. Previous research using individual-level National Election Survey (NES) validated data found demographic and regional patterns of overreporting. Since the NES no longer validates voting, individual-level data is no longer available and region is the only remaining determinant of systematic vote overreporting that can be studied. This paper uses census data to examine regional variations in vote overreporting in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections. After reviewing the actual turnout rate and how it increased from 2000 to 2004, I use both conventional ways to measure overreporting and examine variation by region. My results using both methods fit with past research indicating that overreporting is slightly higher in the South, but only in 2000.

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