scholarly journals A Bayesian Approach for Validation of Election Results

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-31
Author(s):  
R.K. Ogundeji ◽  
J.N. Onyeka-Ubaka
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Election Results

Election process and results in many countries have resulted in both political and economic instability of that country. Fair and credible election process and results must be evidence-based and statistical proven. This study employed a Bayesian procedure for the validation of election results. Based on Nigerian 2011 and 2015 presidential election results, Bayesian credible intervals were obtained to assess the credibility of Nigeria presidential election results. The study explores Bayesian methods using a Bayesian model called beta-binomial conjugate model to compute posterior probability of electoral votes cast and confirm if these votes are within Bayesian credible intervals. The results obtained showed that election outcomes for the two major political parties in Nigeria 2011 presidential election are not within Bayesian credible bounds while 2015 presidential election results are within computed Bayesian credible bounds. Also, in contrast to frequentist approach, applied Bayesian methodology exhibited smaller variance which is an indication that Bayesian approach is more efficient. Thus, for election to be fair, credible and acceptable by the electorates, Bayesian approach can be used to validate electoral process and results. Keywords: Bayesian Methods, Bayesian Credible Intervals, Beta-Binomial Model, Empirical Bayes, Nigeria Presidential Elections.

Nature of Tweets in the 2015 Nigerian Presidential Elections

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nwachukwu Andrew Egbunike ◽  
Noel Ihebuzor ◽  
Ngozi Onyechi
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Social Engagement ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Election Results

Social media is becoming increasingly important as a means for social engagement. In Nigeria, Twitter is employed to convey opinion and make commentary on matters ranging from football to politics. Tweets are also used to inform, advocate, recruit and even incite. Previous studies have shown that Twitter could be effective for political mobilization. However, there is dearth of research on how Twitter has been used as a purveyor of neutral and/or hate speech in the Nigerian context. This study examined the nature of tweets in the immediate aftermath of the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. The authors employed content analysis of 250 purposively selected tweets from the #Igbo hashtag which trended between March 29 and 31, 2015. The tweets were then categorized into five explicit hate and one neutral tweet category respectively. Results revealed the dominance of three hate tweet types: derogatory, mocking and blaming. These findings were then discussed bearing in mind earlier theories on the functionality of tweets and voting patterns from an analysis of the election results.

Mexico: New Democracy with Old Parties?

Politics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 172-180
Author(s):  
Carlos E. Casillas ◽  
Alejandro Mújica
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party System ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Contemporary History ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Election Results ◽  
New Democracy

Mexico's 2000 presidential election was one of the most important political events in the nation's contemporary history. The victory of the National Action Party (PAN) and Vicente Fox, the first ‘non-official’ candidate ever to win a Mexican presidential election, surprised both local and world observers. This article comprises four parts. Part I very briefly places the election in historical perspective. In Part II, each of the three front-runners in the contest is profiled. Part III includes a systematic analysis of the general election results by constituencies or other territorial units, and features tabulated data. Part IV addresses the development of political parties and the party system before and after the elections.

scholarly journals CATHOLICS AND THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-312
Author(s):  
Corwin Smidt
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
The Past ◽  
Swing Vote ◽  
Election Process

This article examines the role of Catholics within the 2020 presidential election in the United States. Although Catholics were once a crucial and dependable component of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition, their vote in more recent years has been much more splintered. Nevertheless, Catholics have been deemed to be an important “swing vote” in American politics today, as in recent presidential elections they have aligned with the national popular vote. This article therefore focuses on the part that Catholics played within the 2020 presidential election process. It addresses the level of political change and continuity within the ranks of Catholics over the past several elections, how they voted in the Democratic primaries during the initial stages of the 2020 presidential election, their level of support for different candidates over the course of the campaign, how they ultimately came to cast their ballots in the 2020 election, and the extent to which their voting patterns in 2020 differed from that of 2016.

scholarly journals The Implementation of Good Governance In The Presidential Election In Indonesia

Yuridika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 281
Author(s):  
Dian Fitri Sabrina ◽  
Rosa Ristawati
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Administrative Law ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Presidential System

The 2019 presidential and vice presidential elections in Indonesia had complicated issues, including broken ballots, multiple voter lists, not registered as permanent voters, political money, transparency, administrative violations, electoral penalties, and high white numbers. These problems indicate that the values contained in the concept of good governance are not implemented in the election process. To analyze the issues, this paper uses normative method. The method is by analyzing the Laws. Especially when related to aspects of law enforcement in the principles of administrative law in good governance. This method will be formulated for implementing good governance in the election process. The results of the analysis have who that the electoral justice is very important to be achieved in the presidential election in Indonesia. the presidential  system is in order to strengthen the presidential election. However, the presidential election as one of the recruitment in the Presidential in Indonesia system in election is against justice because do not use a good governance in election process. It is not supporting the electoral justice. Results of previous elections in Indonesia, it was found that the values of good governance have not been well implemented in all stages of the election, both in the pre-election stage, the election process until post-election. Especially when related to aspects of law principle in election. this research will be formulated with good governance system for implemented in election process. The paper will be socialized and implemented in the holding of presidential system election in Indonesia.

Chile coalition crisis hints at new Pinera presidency

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Pole Position ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Consistent Support ◽  
Actual Size

Significance Albeit expected, that defeat has widened divisions within its centre-left coalition and between the administration and its political parties. The election results put the centre-right opposition in the pole position to win the next presidential election in November 2017. Impacts The impact of the election outcome on the mood in government parties far exceeds the actual size of their defeat. High abstention is a criticism of both main coalitions and suggests potentially fertile ground for populism. Without consistent support from its own parties, it will be difficult for the government to pass promised reforms.

scholarly journals Inferring the votes in a new political landscape. The case of the 2019 Spanish Presidential elections.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didier Grimaldi ◽  
Javier Diaz ◽  
Hugo Arboleda
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Online Social Networks ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Research Institutes ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
Election Results

Abstract The avalanche of personal and social data circulating in Online Social Networks over the past 10 years has attracted a great deal of interest from Scholars and Practitioners who seek to analyse not only their value, but also their limits. Predicting election results using Twitter data is an example of how data can directly influence the politic domain and it also serves an appealing research topic. This article aims to predict the results of the 2019 Spanish Presidential election and the voting share of each candidate, using Tweeter. The method combines sentiment analysis and volume information and compares the performance of five Machine Learning algorithms. Several data scrutiny uncertainties arose that hindered the prediction of the outcome. Consequently, the method develops a political lexicon-based framework to measure the sentiments of online users. Indeed, an accurate understanding of the contextual content of the tweets posted was vital in this work. Our results correctly ranked the candidates and determined the winner by means of a better prediction of votes than official research institutes.

scholarly journals Benford’s Law Application: Case of Elections in Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Richmond Sam-Quarm
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Third Place ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Data Points ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
Election Results

Sri Lanka, like many developing countries has been involved in a circle of allegations of election fraud. Usually these claims are pronounced more by losing parties. This study uses Benford’s law, a law of probability distribution of digits, to investigate whether the election fraud claims might have merit. A sample in this study is made of 808 election data. This data comes from the 2010 Presidential election for representatives from three major political parties and from 2010 General Election data. All of the data points were obtained through reliable government sources, two of which are, the Department of Elections website of Sri Lanka, and the National News Paper statistics (2010). The study contrasts the distribution of the first digit of election results against the Benford’s Law benchmark. After obtaining the results, we organize the data and find median, mean, mode and standard deviation. The preliminary results showe that the data does not align with Benford’s law predictions. In other words, it shows that the data does not follow the law where the mean is larger than the median and there is a positive skewness then it likely follows a Benford’s distribution. The distribution of the first digit of actual data for three parties disagrees with Benford's law. This misalignment is more pronounced for the winning party than for the second and third place parties, respectively. We, therefore, look forward to run the data through several critical analyses and observing if there shall be any fraud or manipulation in numbers.

scholarly journals Inferring the votes in a new political landscape. The case of the 2019 Spanish Presidential elections.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didier Grimaldi ◽  
Javier Diaz ◽  
Hugo Arboleda
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Online Social Networks ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Research Institutes ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
Election Results

Abstract The avalanche of personal and social data circulating in Online Social Networks over the past 10 years has attracted a great deal of interest from Scholars and Practitioners who seek to analyse not only their value, but also their limits. Predicting election results using Twitter data is an example of how data can directly influence the politic domain and it also serves an appealing research topic. This article aims to predict the results of the 2019 Spanish Presidential election and the voting share of each candidate, using Tweeter. The method combines sentiment analysis and volume information and compares the performance of five Machine Learning algorithms. Several data scrutiny uncertainties arose that hindered the prediction of the outcome. Consequently, the method develops a political lexicon-based framework to measure the sentiments of online users. Indeed, an accurate understanding of the contextual content of the tweets posted was vital in this work. Our results correctly ranked the candidates and determined the winner by means of a better prediction of votes than official research institutes.

How Do Remittances Shape Electoral Strategies Back Home? Evidence from Mexico’s 2006 Presidential Election

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (03) ◽  
pp. 55-79
Author(s):  
Cristina Álvarez-Mingote
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Strategies

ABSTRACTHow does international migration affect political parties’ electoral strategies in the sending countries? This article argues that remittances help political parties decide whom to target during elections. Drawing from theories of vote targeting and those on the effects of remittances, this study addresses how political parties’ electoral strategies follow the specific characteristics of remittance recipients. Using individual-level data from Mexico’s 2006 presidential elections, the results show that receiving remittances had a significant impact on experiencing electoral targeting, especially by the then-incumbent PAN. This study reveals the importance of remittances in shaping the strategies of Mexican political parties.

Juscelino Kubitschek and the 1960 Presidential Election

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-145
Author(s):  
Sheldon Maram
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Direct Election

Brazilian specialists have long recognised the importance of the 1960 presidential elections, which set in motion a process that culminated in a 21—year military dictatorship. Only in 1989 did Brazilians witness once again the direct election of a president. Nonetheless, scholarly literature on this event is sparse and often tends toward the ahistorical view that the election of Jânio Quadros in 1960 was part of an inexorable process. Almost entirely ignored are the reasons why Brazil's largest political party, the Partido Social Democrático or PSD, nominated for president a weak candidate, Marshal of the Brazilian Army Henrique Teixeira Lott.1Clearly, Lott himself was not part of a praetorian guard that imposed his candidacy. Indeed, the Marshal was a reluctant candidate, who offered to withdraw in October 1959 in favour of a ‘national unity candidate’.2 In my view Lott's nomination had much more to do with a complex series of manoeuvres carried out by Brazil's president Juscelino Kubitschek (1956–61) than with his own actions. For Kubitschek, the political parties and presidential aspirants in 1960 were merely pawns in his highly personalistic vision of the political process. Constitutionally barred from seeking immediate re—election, Kubitschek initially manoeuvred to induce his party, the PSD, not to run its own presidential candidate. When this effort failed, he displayed, at the very least, ambivalence regarding the fate of the party's candidate.An analysis of Kubitschek's actions and motivations presents methodological challenges to the historian. Historians traditionally rely heavily on written documentation to support their analysis of actions and motivations.

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