scholarly journals Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Bell ◽  
Kelvyn Jones
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Variance Functions ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Random Effects Modeling

This article challenges Fixed Effects (FE) modeling as the ‘default’ for time-series-cross-sectional and panel data. Understanding different within and between effects is crucial when choosing modeling strategies. The downside of Random Effects (RE) modeling—correlated lower-level covariates and higher-level residuals—is omitted-variable bias, solvable with Mundlak's (1978a) formulation. Consequently, RE can provide everything that FE promises and more, as confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations, which additionally show problems with Plümper and Troeger's FE Vector Decomposition method when data are unbalanced. As well as incorporating time-invariant variables, RE models are readily extendable, with random coefficients, cross-level interactions and complex variance functions. We argue not simply for technical solutions to endogeneity, but for the substantive importance of context/heterogeneity, modeled using RE. The implications extend beyond political science to all multilevel datasets. However, omitted variables could still bias estimated higher-level variable effects; as with any model, care is required in interpretation.

scholarly journals FORECASTING MONEY DEMAND WITH THE INCLUSION OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION FOR THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-74
Author(s):  
Payam Mohammad Aliha ◽  
Tamat Sarmidi ◽  
Fathin Faizah Said
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Random Effects Model ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Financial Innovations ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of financial innovations on the demand for money using a dynamic panel data for 10 ASEAN member states from 2004 to 2012 and attempt to forecast the demand for money during 2013 – 2016 to compare between forecasting performance of the fixed effects model with that of random effects model and also to compare the forecasting accuracy of dynamic forecasting and static forecasting obtained from these two models. An autoregressive model by definition is when a value from a time series is regressed on previous values from that same time series. There are two types of forecasting namely dynamic forecast and static forecast. “Dynamic forecast will take previously forecasted values while static forecast will take actual values to make next step forecast. Panel effects models assist in controlling for unobserved heterogeneity when this heterogeneity is constant over time and correlated (fixed effects) or uncorrelated (random effects) with independent variables. Hausman test indicates that the random-effects model is appropriate. We use the conventional money demand that is enriched with the number of automated teller machines (ATM) to proxy for the effect of financial innovations on money demand. By comparing the magnitude of “Root Mean Squared Error” (RMSE) as a benchmark for the two forecasts (0.1164 for dynamic forecast versus 0.0635 for static forecast) we simply find out that static forecast is superior to dynamic forecast meaning that static forecast provides more accurate forecast compared to a dynamic forecast for the fixed-effects model. Therefore, we conclude the static forecast on the basis of the random-effects model provides the most accurate forecasting. The estimation result of the chosen random-effects regression also indicates the estimated coefficient of ATM is not significant meaning that ATM does not impact money demand in ASEAN countries.

scholarly journals Forecasting With Dynamic Panel Data Models

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Liu ◽  
Hyungsik Roger Moon ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Empirical Bayes ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Study ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Posterior Mean ◽  
Correlated Random Effects

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross‐sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross‐sectional information to transform the unit‐specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that equals the population distribution of the random coefficients. We show that the risk of a predictor based on a nonparametric kernel estimate of the Tweedie correction is asymptotically equivalent to the risk of a predictor that treats the correlated random effects distribution as known (ratio optimality). Our empirical Bayes predictor performs well compared to various competitors in a Monte Carlo study. In an empirical application, we use the predictor to forecast revenues for a large panel of bank holding companies and compare forecasts that condition on actual and severely adverse macroeconomic conditions.

Economic Development Effects of Major and Minor League Teams and Stadiums

2020 ◽  
pp. 152700252097584
Author(s):  
Nola Agha ◽  
Daniel Rascher
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Census Bureau ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Random Effects Models ◽  
Minor League ◽  
Time Series Comparison

Professional teams and leagues claim new stadiums lead to economic development. To test this, we utilize data from the Census Bureau on net establishment and employment changes across 871 Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas from 2004 to 2012. Difference-in-differences and panel data techniques allow for a cross-sectional and time series comparison for both teams and new stadia in both professional and development leagues. Nearly all results from hundreds of models are insignificantly different from zero. Results from between- and random-effects models suggest that teams move into markets that already have higher employment and establishment growth. (JEL R58, H71, L83, Z28)

An Examination of Audit Report Lag for Banks: A Panel Data Approach

2000 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Charlene Henderson ◽  
Steven E. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Audit Report ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Cross Sectional Analysis ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Sectional Analysis

This study investigates the determinants of audit report lag (ARL) for a sample of banks. Researchers have been interested in the determinants of ARL, in part, because it impacts the timeliness of public disclosures. However, prior ARL research has relied exclusively on regression analysis of cross-sectional samples of companies from many industries. In addition to focusing exclusively on banks, panel data analysis is introduced and compared with cross-sectional analysis to demonstrate its power in dynamic settings and its potential to improve estimation. Results reveal important differences between cross-sectional analysis and panel data analysis. First, bank size is negatively related to ARL in cross-section but positively related to ARL using panel data analysis. The cross-sectional size estimate is subject to omitted variables bias, and furthermore, cross-sectional analysis fails to capture variation in size over time in relation to ARL. Panel data analysis both accounts for omitted variables and captures the dynamics of the relationship between size and ARL. As well, the panel data model's explanatory power far exceeds that of the cross-sectional model. This is primarily due to the panel model's use of firm-specific intercepts that both capture the role of reporting tradition and eliminate heterogeneity bias. Thus, panel data analysis proves to be a powerful tool in the analysis of ARL.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Portfolio Equity Purchases on Security Returns in Kenya: Evidence from NSE Listed Financial Institutions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 202
Author(s):  
Loice Koskei
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
International Portfolio ◽  
Security Returns

Foreign portfolio inflows increase the liquidity and the volume of finance available for financial institutions. At the same time, as foreign portfolio inflows finances in part the capital requirements of local companies, it can also increase the competitiveness of these companies. A huge surge of the inflows can be very inflationary because this forces the Central Bank of Kenya to expand the country’s monetary base by releasing counterpart domestic currency which eventually feeds into the inflationary process. The main aim of this study was to find out the effect of international portfolio equity purchases on security returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study population was 21 financial institutions listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Using purposive sampling technique the study concentrated on 14 financial institutions. The research design of the study was causal as it is concerned more with understanding the connection between cause and effect relationships. The study adopted panel data regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method where the data included time series and cross-sectional. A unit root test was carried in this study to examine stationarity of variables because it used panel data which combined both cross-sectional and time series information. Panel estimation results indicated that international portfolio equity purchases have no effect on stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study recommended implementation of regulations and policies that would attract foreign portfolio equity inflows in financial institutions.

Limitations of Fixed-Effects Models for Panel Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terrence D. Hill ◽  
Andrew P. Davis ◽  
J. Micah Roos ◽  
Michael T. French
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Critical Discussion ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Fixed Effects Models ◽  
Time Invariance ◽  
Type Ii Errors

Although fixed-effects models for panel data are now widely recognized as powerful tools for longitudinal data analysis, the limitations of these models are not well known. We provide a critical discussion of 12 limitations, including a culture of omission, low statistical power, limited external validity, restricted time periods, measurement error, time invariance, undefined variables, unobserved heterogeneity, erroneous causal inferences, imprecise interpretations of coefficients, imprudent comparisons with cross-sectional models, and questionable contributions vis-à-vis previous work. Instead of discouraging the use of fixed-effects models, we encourage more critical applications of this rigorous and promising methodology. The most important deficiencies—Type II errors, biased coefficients and imprecise standard errors, misleading p values, misguided causal claims, and various theoretical concerns—should be weighed against the likely presence of unobserved heterogeneity in other regression models. Ultimately, we must do a better job of communicating the pitfalls of fixed-effects models to our colleagues and students.

scholarly journals Bias correction methods for dynamic panel data models with fixed effects

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abonazel
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Cross Sectional Dimension ◽  
Ls Estimator

This paper considers the estimation methods for dynamic panel data (DPD) models with fixed effects, which suggested in econometric literature, such as least squares (LS) and generalized method of moments (GMM). These methods obtain biased estimators for DPD models. The LS estimator is inconsistent when the time dimension (T) is short regardless of the cross-sectional dimension (N). Although consistent estimates can be obtained by GMM procedures, the inconsistent LS estimator has a relatively low variance and hence can lead to an estimator with lower root mean square error after the bias is removed. Therefore, we discuss in this paper the different methods to correct the bias of LS and GMM estimations. The analytical expressions for the asymptotic biases of the LS and GMM estimators have been presented for large N and finite T. Finally; we display new estimators that presented by Youssef and Abonazel [40] as more efficient estimators than the conventional estimators.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Portfolio Equity Sales on Stock Returns in Kenya: Evidence from NSE Listed Financial Institutions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 185
Author(s):  
Loice Koskei
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Study Population

Fluctuations of foreign portfolio equity intensify risk and unpredictability in financial institutions leading to high volatility. The main aim of this study was to find out the effect of foreign portfolio equity outflows on stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study population was 21 financial institutions listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Using purposive sampling technique the study concentrated on 14 financial institutions. The research design of the study was causal as it is concerned more with understanding the connection between cause and effect relationships. The study adopted panel data regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method where the data included time series and cross-sectional. A unit root test was carried in this study to examine stationarity of variables because it used panel data which combined both cross-sectional and time series information. Panel estimation results indicated that foreign portfolio equity outflows have no effect on stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study recommended implementation of policies that would curb foreign portfolio outflows in financial institutions in order to minimize reversals of foreign portfolio investments. 

PANEL DATA MODELS WITH FINITE NUMBER OF MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 863-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyong Hahn ◽  
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Finite Support ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Incidental Parameters ◽  
Cross Sectional Dimension ◽  
Fixed Effects Estimator

We study a nonlinear panel data model in which the fixed effects are assumed to have finite support. The fixed effects estimator is known to have the incidental parameters problem. We contribute to the literature by making a qualitative observation that the incidental parameters problem in this model may not be not as severe as in the conventional case. Because fixed effects have finite support, the probability of correctly identifying the fixed effect converges to one even when the cross sectional dimension grows as fast as some exponential function of the time dimension. As a consequence, the finite sample bias of the fixed effects estimator is expected to be small.

scholarly journals ASYMPTOTICALLY UNBIASED ESTIMATION OF AUTOCOVARIANCES AND AUTOCORRELATIONS WITH LONG PANEL DATA

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1263-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryo Okui
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Small Samples ◽  
Unbiased Estimation ◽  
Series Length ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Time Invariant

An important reason for analyzing panel data is to observe the dynamic nature of an economic variable separately from its time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. This paper examines how to estimate the autocovariances of a variable separately from its time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. When both cross-sectional and time series sample sizes tend to infinity, we show that the within-group autocovariances are consistent, although they are severely biased when the time series length is short. The biases have the leading term that converges to the long-run variance of the individual dynamics. This paper develops methods to estimate the long-run variance in panel data settings and to alleviate the biases of the within-group autocovariances based on the proposed long-run variance estimators. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the procedures developed in this paper effectively reduce the biases of the estimators for small samples.

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