scholarly journals Can citizens guess how other citizens voted based on demographic characteristics?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Noam Titelman ◽  
Benjamin E. Lauderdale
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Demographic Composition ◽  
Demographic Profiles ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Systematic Biases

Abstract How well do citizens understand the associations between social groups and political divisions in their societies? Previous research has indicated systematic biases in how the demographic composition of party supporters are perceived, but this need not imply that citizens misperceive the likely voting behavior of specific individuals. We report results from two experiments where subjects were provided with randomly selected demographic profiles of respondents to the 2017 British Election Study (BES) and then asked to assess either (1) which party that individual was likely to have voted for in the 2017 UK election or (2) whether that individual was likely to have voted Leave or Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership. We find that, despite substantial overconfidence in individual responses, on average citizens’ guesses broadly reflect the actual distribution of groups supporting the parties and referendum positions.

Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 436-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Kuklinski ◽  
Darrell M. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
United States Senate ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Economic Expectations

Past individual-level studies of economic voting (1) have incorrectly operationalized the model they employ by using past-oriented rather than future-oriented questions and (2) have failed to examine the level of economic voting in United States Senate elections. Using the 1978 National Election Study, we show that economic voting exists in Senate but not House elections, presumably due to the differences in electoral context. Even when economic voting occurs, however, there is no guarantee that the public will influence the direction of macroeconomic policy.

Israeli Attitudes on Synagogue and State

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bethany Blackstone ◽  
Tetsuya Matsubayashi ◽  
Elizabeth A. Oldmixon
Keyword(s):  
Social Groups ◽  
Public Life ◽  
The State ◽  
Religious Communities ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Religious Observance ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Mass Attitudes ◽  
Mass Level

AbstractThis article investigates the attitudes of Israeli Jews on the proper relationship between religion and the state, using data from the 2009 Israeli National Election Study. Specifically we test whether association with the secular or religious communities structures mass attitudes on this important dimension of Israeli politics. Mass level disagreement in this area dates back to the pre-state period and represents a longstanding cleavage in Zionist thought and Israeli politics. We find that mass attitudes toward religion and public life are associated with religious observance and identification with religious parties and social groups.

IdentityversusIdentity: Israel and Evangelicals and the Two-Front War for Jewish Votes

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric M. Uslaner ◽  
Mark Lichbach
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Election Study ◽  
American Jews ◽  
Democratic Attitudes ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study

AbstractRepublicans made major efforts to win a larger share of the Jewish vote in 2004 by emphasizing their strong support for Israel. They partially succeeded, but did not make a dent in the overall loyalty of American Jews to the Democratic party, since they lost approximately as many votes because of Jews' negative reactions to the party's evangelical base. We argue that both Israel and worries over evangelical influence in the country reflect concerns about Jewish identity, above and beyond disagreements on specific social issues. We compare American Jewish voting behavior and liberalism to the voting behavior of non-Jews in 2004 using a survey of Jews from the National Jewish Democratic Coalition and the American National Election Study. For non-Jews, attitudes toward evangelicals are closely linked to social issues, but for Jews this correlation is small. The Jewish reaction to evangelicals is more of an issue of identity and the close ties of evangelicals to the Republican Party keep many Jews Democratic. Attitudes toward evangelicals are far more important for Jewish voting behavior than for non-Jewish voters.

scholarly journals What can we learn from open questions in surveys? A case study on non-voting reported in the 2013 German longitudinal election study

Methodology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-58
Author(s):  
Henning Silber ◽  
Cornelia Zuell ◽  
Steffen-M. Kuehnel
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Intended Behavior ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Questions And Answers ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Specific Reason

Open survey questions are often used to evaluate closed questions. However, they can fulfil this function only if there is a strong link between answers to open questions and answers to related closed questions. Using reasons for non-voting reported in the German Longitudinal Election Study 2013, we investigated this link by examining whether the reported reasons for non-voting may be substantive reasons or ex-post legitimations. We tested five theoretically derived hypotheses about respondents who gave, or did not give, a specific reason. Results showed that (a) answers to open questions were indeed related to answers to closed questions and could be used in explanatory turnout models to predict voting behavior, and (b) the relationship between answers to open and closed questions and the predictive power of reasons given in response to the open questions were stronger in the post-election survey (reported behavior) than in the pre-election survey (intended behavior).

The Development and Persistence of Ethnic Voting

1965 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 896-908 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond E. Wolfinger
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Salient Dimension ◽  
People’S Perceptions

Mass immigration ended fifty years ago, but national origins continue to be a salient dimension in many people's perceptions of themselves and of others. Where this salience is widespread, ethnicity plays a major role in politics. Ethnicity is often an important independent variable in voting behavior. “Ethnic voting,” as I shall call it, has two manifestations. (1) Members of an ethnic group show an affinity for one party or the other which cannot be explained solely as a result of other demographic characteristics. Voters of Irish descent, to take a familiar example, are more likely than other voters of similar economic status to be Democrats. (2) Members of an ethnic group will cross party lines to vote for—or against—a candidate belonging to a particular ethnic group.

Electoral Competitiveness and Turnout in British Elections, 1964–2010

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 775-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Vowles ◽  
Gabriel Katz ◽  
Daniel Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Competitive Environments ◽  
Voting Age ◽  
Short And Long Term

Analyzing the British Election Study from 1964 to 2010, we examine the influence of electoral context on turnout, focusing on the closeness of elections in terms of lagged seat and constituency-level winning margins. Using cross-classified multilevel models to account for individual and contextual factors and disentangle life cycle, cohort- and election-specific effects, we find that closeness strongly affects voting behavior, particularly among new electors. Widening seat margins in British elections over the last decades have had a persistent impact on turnout. Respondents who faced less competitive environments when young are more likely to abstain in subsequent elections than those reaching voting age after close-fought races. We conclude that variations in competitiveness have had both short- and long-term effects on turnout.

scholarly journals How “Us” and “Them” Relates to Voting Behavior—Social Structure, Social Identities, and Electoral Choice

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402199750
Author(s):  
Simon Bornschier ◽  
Silja Häusermann ◽  
Delia Zollinger ◽  
Céline Colombo
Keyword(s):  
Social Structure ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
New Left ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Social Identities ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Group Boundaries ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
Group Identities ◽  
Original Survey

The last decades have seen the emergence of a divide pitting the new left against the far right in advanced democracies. We study how this universalism-particularism divide is crystallizing into a full-blown cleavage, complete with structural, political and identity elements. So far, little research exists on the identities that voters themselves perceive as relevant for drawing in- and out-group boundaries along this divide. Based on an original survey from Switzerland, a paradigmatic case of electoral realignment, we show that voters’ “objective” socio-demographic characteristics relate to distinctive, primarily culturally connoted identities. We then inquire into the degree to which these group identities have been politicized, that is, whether they divide new left and far right voters. Our results strongly suggest that the universalism-particularism “cleavage” not only bundles issues, but shapes how people think about who they are and where they stand in a group conflict that meshes economics and culture.

Paying attention and the incumbency effect: Voting behavior in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron A Moore ◽  
R Michael McGregor ◽  
Laura B Stephenson
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Large N ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Municipal Election

The importance of incumbent evaluations for voting and the existence of an incumbency effect are well-established. However, there is limited research on the effect incumbency has on voters’ engagement with election campaigns. This paper examines whether the use of incumbency as a cue when voting is associated with there being less interest in an election and whether campaign period attentiveness affects incumbent support. We consider these questions using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large- N, two-wave survey of Torontonians conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election. We find that attentiveness, on its own, does not make voters more likely to support an incumbent or non-incumbent candidate. However, among individuals with high knowledge, attentiveness decreases the likelihood of supporting the incumbent, as opposed to a non-incumbent candidate.

Customer Satisfaction and the Role of Demographic Characteristics in Online Banking

2016 ◽  
pp. 1786-1802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc Honore Petnji Yaya ◽  
Frederic Marimon ◽  
Marti Casadesus
Keyword(s):  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Service Quality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Perceived Value ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Online Banking ◽  
Demographic Profiles ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Major Predictor

This chapter proposes a model that (1) analyzes the direct and indirect effects of e-service quality on satisfaction and value with the moderating/mediating role of value as well as (2) analyzes the positive impact of gender, age, education, and income on quality, satisafaction, and value. The overall results show service quality is a major predictor of perceived value, which in turn is positively related to customer satisfaction. The mediating/moderating role of perceived value on the relationship between service quality and satisfaction is confirmed. Contrary to the proposed hypothesis, no relationships and no differences in the various subgroups categories of age, education, and income are detected in terms of service quality, value, and satisfaction. Consequently, customers' demographic characteristics limitation on the adoption of online banking is now history. However, the authors recommend that managers always consider each segment of the customers' demographic profiles individually while making their decisions.

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