Oil Revenue and Kuwait's Economy: An Econometric Approach

1988 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud A. Kaboudan

This paper presents a macroeconomic model for a small developing oil-exporting economy: Kuwait. The model is a simultaneous system of difference equations. Historic effects of changes in revenues from oil exports on the country's economic conditions are simulated. The model is then used to forecast these conditions through 1990, and to test two fiscal policy alternatives under the assumption that revenues from Kuwait's oil exports will remain constant from 1986 to 1990. The following are key words: developing economies; oil-exporting economies; Middle East economies; Kuwait; Kuwait's economy; policy models; macroeconomic models; econometric models; macroeconometric models; forecasting models; and policy models.

Subject The outlook for South Sudanese oil production. Significance South Sudanese exports are dominated by oil production. The end of the 2013-15 civil war and establishment of a national unity government could signal an improved outlook for the oil sector, but transportation and infrastructure barriers, low prices, a fragile peace and poor local management may hinder the sector's revitalisation efforts. Impacts Donors and the IMF will pressure authorities to increase non-oil revenue sources. No new oil exploration is likely before 2017. Further disruptions in oil production are possible. Lower oil prices will affect South Sudan more than most oil states given its overwhelming reliance on oil exports.


2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-257
Author(s):  
GJ Lee

Skills development levies are increasingly being utilised to increase enterprise provided training in developing economies. South Africa is one such example. The impact of such incentive systems on the bottom-line of firms is a vital consideration in such programs. Particularly important are the economic conditions under which the incentive will stimulate participation by organisations. The transaction costs of participation must be taken into account: while a levy-grant system clearly creates a prima-facie incentive, it may be prohibitively expensive for some firms to enter the grant disbursement systems. Accordingly, through a simple model of the incentives for firms, the participation level of the firm under various types of levy systems is assessed. Non-monetary considerations are also considered. The implications for participation by firms, along with managerial and policy implications, are discussed. 


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Ossou Ndzila Fred Nelson ◽  
Ossala Sonia Gladice ◽  
Bambi Prince Dorian Rivel ◽  
Ying Yirong

The purpose of this research was to analyze the impact of exports on the economic growth in the non-oil sector in the Republic of the Congo over the period of 1985 to 2015. Two approaches are used to achieve this study goal: the descriptive approach and the econometric approach. The results of our study show that non-oil exports have a negative effect on economic growth. Following these results, some recommendations are made to improve the contribution of exports to economic growth.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Onyemah ◽  
Jay P. Mulki ◽  
Martha Rivera-Pesquera

PurposeA significant amount of research has shown that drivers of employee attitudes, and behaviors leading to outcome variables such as turnover intentions, are strongly influenced by national culture. This study focuses on the difference in relationships among some critical variables between two emerging economies with similar cultural indices.Design/methodology/approachSurvey questionnaire was used to collect responses from salespeople in two countries. Correlation analysis and structural equation modeling were used to provide support for the stated hypotheses.FindingsResults indicate that Mexican and Indian salespeople differ in how their level of trust in supervisor, regulation of emotion, interpersonal conflict and felt stress related to drive turnover intention. Findings also confirm a strong positive relationship between felt stress and turnover intention.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is based on survey responses and should be interpreted with the associated limitations of method bias. The hypothesized model of relationships among constructs was based on theory and prior research, but researchers understand that there could be other statistically equivalent models with equal fit. Moreover, stress can result from numerous other combinations of variables in addition to those used in this model. The relationships among constructs as presented could also be due to the absence of other key variables. This study looked at turnover intentions from an employee perspective using responses made when economic conditions worldwide were robust. This is not the case today because of the global pandemic. Economic conditions wield substantial influence on employee responses as well as on turnover intentions. In addition, economic downturn lowers turnover potential and heightens stress level.Practical implicationsFindings confirm a strong positive relationship between felt stress and turnover intention. Efforts to keep stress within a productive range should be encouraged, because while the direct costs of turnover can be substantial, indirect costs may be even greater. For example, when salespeople leave an organization, the customer relationships they formed and developed may be at risk, exposing their companies to potential reduction in revenue. Sales organizations that pay inadequate attention to high turnover rate among their salespeople become susceptible to a phenomenon Dudley and Goodson (1988) identified as “low sales recruiting ceiling syndrome.”Social implicationsMost of the current studies results from developing countries have been compared to those from developed countries where the theories and seminal research originated. The outcome of the authors' research lends yet another argument in favor of more comparative studies on East versus East or developing economies versus developing economies. Such effort could further delineate the applicability of “foreign” theories and inform the development of “local” theories for richer insight on local management practice. The current drive to inject diversity, equity and inclusion in the workplace should be reflected in the development of theory and the conduct of research. No one country or individual or group of individuals can claim ownership of theory development and standards for assessing theories originating elsewhere. Diversity, equity and inclusion have a place in academic research and should be encouraged. Second, the results obtained in this paper offer a cautionary note against over-generalization. Just as small details matter in life, likewise, small differences in variables that explain a phenomenon can make a big difference. Third, the findings confirm a strong positive relationship between felt stress and turnover intention. This is true for the two countries examined in this research.Originality/valueThis study seeks to understand why potential drivers of turnover intention might manifest differently in countries that have a similar cultural outlook. The current research leverages the contingency theory and zeroed in on turnover intention. In addition, two additional cultural dimensions (long-term orientation and uncertainty avoidance) were incorporated, and the model was tested using salespeople (rather than plant workers).


Author(s):  
Kazem Reza Kashyzadeh ◽  
Ali Habibi Darounkola ◽  
Ali Habibi Darounkola

One of the remarkable phenomena in recent years is the growing trend of globalization. Iran is also seeking to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) to expand non-oil exports and presence in global markets, and is currently a member of the organization's oversight body. Handmade industries such as hand woven carpet are one of the important trades that can be studied for this purpose. Exports of handmade carpets have fluctuated over different time periods. Despite maintaining its international position as the rank of the largest exporter of handmade carpets, the export position of handmade carpets is decreasing as compared to other Iranian exports. Handmade carpet craftsmanship is a complementary activity of agricultural and rural businesses, but due to the considerable number of workers and the small share of carpet value added in the national economy, it does not have a suitable condition. Other influential parameters such as rivals (e.g., China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey), etc. have caused the economic conditions of this industry to be unstable. In this regard, one of the best and most appropriate ways to compete with other countries is to reduce production costs and, consequently, reduce product prices. This factor includes various variables, including weavers' wages. Unfortunately, there is no definite and elaborate program for determining the wages of handmade silk carpet weavers in Iran according to the standard. In fact, in some cities, the weavers' wages determine based on the texture conditions, texture parameters, economic conditions of the country, and other parameters by carpet wage boards that consist of several carpet experts. In this way, there is the possibility of mistakes and the loss of the rights of weavers or producers due to the entry of personal opinion and the failure to classify the effect of different parameters on the final point. The main purpose of this study is to collect various parameters affecting the wages of handmade carpet we


Significance The finance ministry has sought to boost non-oil revenue by increasing the value-added tax (VAT) rate and other measures. The finance minister has also floated the possibility of introducing income tax in the medium term. Impacts Spending on public sector salaries could remain consistently higher than revenue from oil exports. Raising the income tax option, although controversial at home, might provide some reassurance to external creditors. The withdrawal of cash benefits compensating for the 2018 fiscal measures will hit household budgets hard.


2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Sadia Perveen ◽  
Masood Ahmed ◽  
Rukhshinda Begum

This study covers the different problems of derivative market in Pakistan. Economic instability is the main constraint of derivative market in Pakistan. Due to instable economic conditions and restricted environment, corporate sector has not reflected significant participation in derivative market of Pakistan. Lack of infrastructure, political instability, ineffective governance, inexperience and unaware market participants are the other problems of Pakistan derivative market. Hence, literature is reviewed and analyzed due to unavailability of appropriate data for this study. Findings of the study have suggested that derivatives are an effective risk mitigating tool on one hand whereas on the other side, highly speculative activities in derivative market may be harmful for the financial markets and economic growth. In Pakistan perspective, all the players of financial market have adopted adequate risk mitigating strategies to avoid any adverse market scenario. Speculative activities are highly restricted due to economic instability as Pakistan is not in a position to absorb any financial shocks or crisis. The main regulatory authorities of this particular market are State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). These regulators are keenly observing market and taking necessary actions to prevent any adverse conditions. However, in developing economies these complex instruments create new risks which are badly affecting the whole economy.


2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 963-1008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adnan Haider ◽  
Safdar Ullah Khan

In recent years there has been a growing interest in academics, international policy institutions and central banks1 in developing small-to-medium, even large-scale, open economy macroeconomic models called Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on new-Keynesian framework.2 The term DSGE was originally used by Kydland and Prescott (1982) in their seminal contribution on Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. The RBC model is based on neoclassical framework with micro-founded optimisation behaviour of economic agents with flexible prices. One of the critical assumptions of this model is that fluctuations of real quantities are caused by real shock only; that is, only stochastic technology or government spending shocks play their role. Later research in DSGE models however included Keynesian short-run macroeconomic features (called nominal rigidities), such as Calvo (1983) type staggered pricing behaviour and Taylor (1980) type wage contracts. Hence this new DSGE modeling framework labeled as new-neoclassical synthesis or new-Keynesian modeling paradigm. 3 This new approach combines micro-foundations of both households and firms optimisation problems and with a large collection of both nominal and real (price/wage) rigidities that provide plausible short-run dynamic macroeconomic fluctuations with a fully articulated description of the monetary policy transmission mechanism; see, for instance, Christiano, et al. (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003). The key advantage of modern DSGE models, over traditional reduce form macroeconomic models, is that the structural interpretation of their parameters allows to overcome the famous Lucas critique (1976).4 Traditional models contained equations linking variables of interest of explanatory factors such as economic policy variables. One of the uses of these models was therefore to examine how a change in economic policy affected these variables of interest, other things being equal. In using DSGE models for practical purposes and to recommend how central banks and policy institutions should react to the short-run fluctuations, it is necessary to first examine the possible sources,5 as well as to evaluate the degree of nominal and real rigidities present in the economy. In advanced economies, like US and EURO area, it is easy to determine the degree of nominal and real rigidities as these economies are fully documented. In developing economies like Pakistan, where most of economic activities are un-documented (also labeled as informal economy, black economy, or underground economy), it is very difficult to determine the exact degree of nominal and real rigidities present in the economy. However, one can approximate results using own judgments and through well defined survey based methods


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