scholarly journals POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (S1) ◽  
pp. S20-S45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Recent Experience ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Transitional Countries ◽  
Delayed Parenthood ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Late Childbearing

SummaryThis study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

scholarly journals Sustaining a Regime of Low Fertility

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Raeside ◽  
Professor Kaberi Gayen
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Contraceptive Knowledge ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Behaviour Data

<p>In several developing countries, notably Bangladesh, fertility rates fell dramatically in the later part of the twentieth century and have sustained at low levels. Traditional socioeconomic models do not fully explain the profile of fertility fall especially for rural areas where well-being has not sufficiently improved.  This paper offers a supplementary explanation that mass media facilitated the diffusion of contraceptive knowledge, leading to an ideological shift to value small families, and social networks especially reciprocal encouragement about contraception practice among network members has helped to sustain this shift. To investigate the role of encouragement of immediate network members in their family planning behaviour, data was gathered using an interview-based survey of 694 women of fertile ages in seven rural Bangladeshi villages. Findings give support to the importance of social networks in maintaining achieved low fertility levels. When there is strong reciprocal encouragement of network members about practicing contraception then using contraception is more likely. This may offer an explanation to sustaining a low fertility regime.</p>

scholarly journals Low fertility, childlessness and family changes in the first half of the 20th century in France and Belgium

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Brée ◽  
Thierry Eggerickx ◽  
Jean-Paul Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Marital Status ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Family Size ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Family Formation ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Low Levels

RésuméAu cours de l’entre-deux-guerres, la fécondité a chuté à des niveaux très faibles dans de nombreux pays d’Europe occidentale, presque toujours en dessous du niveau de remplacement. Ce phénomène reste pourtant assez peu étudié et c’est pour apporter de nouveaux éléments à sa compréhension que cet article se penche sur la taille de la famille en France et en Belgique pour les générations de femmes nées entre 1872 et 1931 (en distinguant les femmes en fonction de leur état civil), révélant le rôle important de l’infécondité et des petites familles dans les très faibles niveaux de fécondité observés. Un accent particulier est également mis sur le calendrier de la formation de la famille révélant que les très faibles niveaux de fécondité de l’entre-deux-guerres peuvent être expliqués, au moins en partie, par une modification du calendrier de la fécondité.AbstractDuring the interwar period, fertility dropped to very low levels in many western European countries, almost always below the replacement level but not much is known about this phenomenon. To bring new features, this paper focuses on family size in France and in Belgium for cohorts of women born between 1872 and 1931 (distinguishing women according to their marital status), revealing the important role of childlessness and small families in the strong decline in fertility. A particular focus is then placed on the timing of family formation revealing that the very low levels of fertility of the interwar period can be explained, at least in part, by a modification of the timing of fertility. 

Trends and Differentials in California Fertility Rates 1970-2000

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Clark A. Davis ◽  
J. Joshua Brown
Keyword(s):  
Prime Factor ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Ethnic Population ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Child Bearing ◽  
The Postponement ◽  
Racial Ethnic

In this article we examined fertility trends in the State of California from 1970 to 2000. During this period, the population of California increased 69.0 percent, while the percentage of females in the prime reproductive years (15-44) increased 76.5 percent. The number of live births increased from 362,652 in 1970 to a high of 611,666 in 1990 and stood at 531,285 in 2000. There were significant shifts in agespecific fertility rates during the 30-year period. Live births per 1,000 females declined in age categories 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 and increased in age categories 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44, suggesting the postponement of child bearing until the later portion of the reproductive cycle. With the exception of 1970 and 1971, total fertility rates were below replacement level fertility through 1986. From 1987 to 2000, they exceeded replacement level fertility, suggesting fertility has returned as a prime factor in the growth of California’s population. With shifting fertility patterns and a diverse racial/ethnic population, the need for education and prenatal care remain as significant policy issues.

Cohort Fertility Trends and Religion Affiliation in Latin America: a Glimpse Through Time

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 252-281
Author(s):  
Everton E. C. Lima ◽  
José H. C. Monteiro da Silva ◽  
Vegard Skirbekk
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Religious Affiliation ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
The Past ◽  
General Decline ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Over Time

We analyze cohort fertility by religion and education in Latin America from periods previous to the general decline in period fertility in 1950s. We reconstruct cohort fertility and parity progression ratios of women born in 1930–1970 in a number of countries in the region, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. Our main aim is to understand the past developments of cohort fertility in the course of fertility transition in Latin America and to assess the role of religious affiliation, as well as to understand these developments controlling for a number of socioeconomic characteristics. We also seek to grasp if religion becomes more or less important with rising school levels and human capital over time.

scholarly journals Cohort fertility changes and period fertility in 1960-1990 in Finland

1995 ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Irma-Leena Notkola
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Second Demographic Transition ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Fertility Data ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
The 1960S

In Finland, like in most European countries, the total fertility rate declined from a level of 2.5 births per woman in the middle of the 1960s below the replacement level of 2.1 births during the late sixties. This change has been called Europe’s second demographic transition. This paper aims to describe the changes in cohort fertility during and after this transition. The cohorts whose fertility is examined include the cohorts of women bom between 1923-24 and 1961-62. The cohort fertility data are from unpublished tables of Statistics Finland. Total fertility decreased from 2.6 births per woman in the cohort 1923-24 to the level of 1.8-1.9 births per woman in the cohorts 1943-44 and has stayed at this level in younger cohorts. The most prominent change in fertility behavior in recent years has been delaying births later in life. This transformation has been going on since the cohorts born in the middle of the 1940s. In calendar time this transformation started in the late sixties which suggests that the new contraception methods played an important role in it. Cohort fertility results are used in interpreting period fertility trends and variability in the last decades.

scholarly journals Trends and Differentials in California Fertility Rates 1970-2000

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Clark A. Davis ◽  
J. Joshua Brown
Keyword(s):  
Prime Factor ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Ethnic Population ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Child Bearing ◽  
The Postponement ◽  
Racial Ethnic

In this article we examined fertility trends in the State of California from 1970 to 2000. During this period, the population of California increased 69.0 percent, while the percentage of females in the prime reproductive years (15-44) increased 76.5 percent. The number of live births increased from 362,652 in 1970 to a high of 611,666 in 1990 and stood at 531,285 in 2000. There were significant shifts in agespecific fertility rates during the 30-year period. Live births per 1,000 females declined in age categories 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 and increased in age categories 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44, suggesting the postponement of child bearing until the later portion of the reproductive cycle. With the exception of 1970 and 1971, total fertility rates were below replacement level fertility through 1986. From 1987 to 2000, they exceeded replacement level fertility, suggesting fertility has returned as a prime factor in the growth of California’s population. With shifting fertility patterns and a diverse racial/ethnic population, the need for education and prenatal care remain as significant policy issues.

scholarly journals Exploring age-specific and cumulative cohort rates using composite fertility lattice plots: an international comparison of Human Fertility database and Human Fertility Collection data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Pattaro ◽  
Laura Vanderbloemen ◽  
Jonathan Minton
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Region ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Contour Maps ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Contour Lines ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Geographic Regions

BACKGROUNDThe Human Fertility Database (HFD), and the related Human Fertility Collection (HFC), provide highly disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources provide a wealth of opportunity for learning about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries and geographic regions. OBJECTIVEThe aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualisation methods of the Lexis surface, such as heat maps and shaded contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates and derived cumulative cohort fertility rates across countries and geographic regions. METHODSStandard shaded contour maps use both shade and contour to represent the same variable. In our plots we instead use colour/shade to indicate age-specific fertility rates, and a series of distinct contour lines to indicate the cumulative fertility rates reached by different cohorts at different ages. These figures are then ranked by cumulative cohort fertility rates in the last commonly observed period, and colour coded according to geographic region. RESULTSBy looking first at the thick solid contour lines from left to right in each population figure, we can see at which age different cohorts either reached or last reached replacement fertility levels. Other contours help understand the degree of shortfall below replacement levels for different cohorts. It appears that, once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the USA, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after 1950s and late 1960s, respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions in these countries, are very different, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates can be achieved.

scholarly journals Fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland:Is there a Common Pattern?

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (2-3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Living Arrangements ◽  
Maternal Employment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Common Pattern ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Cohort Fertility

This article reviews major similarities and differences in period and cohort fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. These three countries share a long history of low fertility and currently belong to countries with the lowest cohort fertility rates globally. The study highlights persistent differences in fertility and family patterns between Eastern and Western Germany, which are often rooted in pre-unification contrasts and can be partly linked to continuing differences in institutional set-up and norms on organised childcare, living arrangements and maternal employment. The remarkable stability in period fertility over the last 30 years (with the exception of Eastern Germany) is illustrated with various indicators and discussed on the backdrop of recent reversals in European fertility trends. This stability in fertility levels contrasts with the long-term shift in childbearing towards less stable living arrangements (especially in Eastern Germany), including a high share of single mothers. The study also discusses a relatively small but persistent negative impact of the ongoing shift towards a late timing of childbearing on period fertility in the region. It highlights the educational gradient in fertility, which can be largely attributed to elevated childlessness rates among women with a higher educational degree. Migrant women have on average higher fertility rates than “native-born” women, but their net positive impact on aggregate fertility rates has diminished over time and has become negligible in Germany. A concluding discussion suggests that Austria, Germany and Switzerland share a common pattern of low fertility that sets these countries apart from other regions in Europe.

scholarly journals Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

Demography ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Hellstrand ◽  
Jessica Nisén ◽  
Vitor Miranda ◽  
Peter Fallesen ◽  
Lars Dommermuth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gender Equality ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Stable Pattern ◽  
Demographic Behavior ◽  
Cohort Fertility

Abstract With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Social Motives Predict Loneliness During a Developmental Transition

2017 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 145-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Nikitin ◽  
Alexandra M. Freund
Keyword(s):  
Social Relationships ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Social Avoidance ◽  
Social Approach ◽  
Social Motives ◽  
Developmental Transitions ◽  
Avoidance Motivation ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Low Levels

Abstract. Establishing new social relationships is important for mastering developmental transitions in young adulthood. In a 2-year longitudinal study with four measurement occasions (T1: n = 245, T2: n = 96, T3: n = 103, T4: n = 85), we investigated the role of social motives in college students’ mastery of the transition of moving out of the parental home, using loneliness as an indicator of poor adjustment to the transition. Students with strong social approach motivation reported stable and low levels of loneliness. In contrast, students with strong social avoidance motivation reported high levels of loneliness. However, this effect dissipated relatively quickly as most of the young adults adapted to the transition over a period of several weeks. The present study also provides evidence for an interaction between social approach and social avoidance motives: Social approach motives buffered the negative effect on social well-being of social avoidance motives. These results illustrate the importance of social approach and social avoidance motives and their interplay during developmental transitions.

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