scholarly journals Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

Demography ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Hellstrand ◽  
Jessica Nisén ◽  
Vitor Miranda ◽  
Peter Fallesen ◽  
Lars Dommermuth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gender Equality ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Stable Pattern ◽  
Demographic Behavior ◽  
Cohort Fertility

Abstract With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980–2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

scholarly journals Changes in Mortality in Pakistan 1960-88

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (4II) ◽  
pp. 669-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeba A. Sathar
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
The Other ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
The Past

The relatively high levels of mortality in Pakistan compared to the rest of the Asian region, particularly countries like Sri Lanka and China, have kept population growth rates in check. However, on the other hand, persistently high levels of infant-child mortality are more than often argued to be a strong factor working against a fertility decline in Pakistan. It is without doubt that bringing about further mortality declines is most definitely desirable and government policy has addressed this issue. However, the major thrust of official effort in the past few decades has been towards the curtailment of high fertility levels.

scholarly journals POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (S1) ◽  
pp. S20-S45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Recent Experience ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Transitional Countries ◽  
Delayed Parenthood ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Late Childbearing

SummaryThis study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

scholarly journals Exploring age-specific and cumulative cohort rates using composite fertility lattice plots: an international comparison of Human Fertility database and Human Fertility Collection data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Pattaro ◽  
Laura Vanderbloemen ◽  
Jonathan Minton
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Region ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Contour Maps ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Contour Lines ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Geographic Regions

BACKGROUNDThe Human Fertility Database (HFD), and the related Human Fertility Collection (HFC), provide highly disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources provide a wealth of opportunity for learning about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries and geographic regions. OBJECTIVEThe aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualisation methods of the Lexis surface, such as heat maps and shaded contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates and derived cumulative cohort fertility rates across countries and geographic regions. METHODSStandard shaded contour maps use both shade and contour to represent the same variable. In our plots we instead use colour/shade to indicate age-specific fertility rates, and a series of distinct contour lines to indicate the cumulative fertility rates reached by different cohorts at different ages. These figures are then ranked by cumulative cohort fertility rates in the last commonly observed period, and colour coded according to geographic region. RESULTSBy looking first at the thick solid contour lines from left to right in each population figure, we can see at which age different cohorts either reached or last reached replacement fertility levels. Other contours help understand the degree of shortfall below replacement levels for different cohorts. It appears that, once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the USA, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after 1950s and late 1960s, respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions in these countries, are very different, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates can be achieved.

scholarly journals Fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland:Is there a Common Pattern?

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (2-3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Living Arrangements ◽  
Maternal Employment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Common Pattern ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Cohort Fertility

This article reviews major similarities and differences in period and cohort fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. These three countries share a long history of low fertility and currently belong to countries with the lowest cohort fertility rates globally. The study highlights persistent differences in fertility and family patterns between Eastern and Western Germany, which are often rooted in pre-unification contrasts and can be partly linked to continuing differences in institutional set-up and norms on organised childcare, living arrangements and maternal employment. The remarkable stability in period fertility over the last 30 years (with the exception of Eastern Germany) is illustrated with various indicators and discussed on the backdrop of recent reversals in European fertility trends. This stability in fertility levels contrasts with the long-term shift in childbearing towards less stable living arrangements (especially in Eastern Germany), including a high share of single mothers. The study also discusses a relatively small but persistent negative impact of the ongoing shift towards a late timing of childbearing on period fertility in the region. It highlights the educational gradient in fertility, which can be largely attributed to elevated childlessness rates among women with a higher educational degree. Migrant women have on average higher fertility rates than “native-born” women, but their net positive impact on aggregate fertility rates has diminished over time and has become negligible in Germany. A concluding discussion suggests that Austria, Germany and Switzerland share a common pattern of low fertility that sets these countries apart from other regions in Europe.

scholarly journals How did Sweden Fail the Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
pp. 002073142199484
Author(s):  
Finn Diderichsen
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Care ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Differential Survival ◽  
Adequate Care ◽  
Differential Exposure ◽  
The Government ◽  
Differential Immunity ◽  
Inequalities In Mortality

Sweden has since the start of the pandemic a COVID-19 mortality rate that is 4 to 10 times higher than in the other Nordic countries. Also, measured as age-standardized all-cause excess mortality in the first half of 2020 compared to previous years Sweden failed in comparison with the other Nordic countries, but only among the elderly. Sweden has large socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 mortality. Geographical, ethnic, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality can be due to differential exposure to the virus, differential immunity, and differential survival. Most of the country differences are due to differential exposure, but the socioeconomic disparities are mainly driven by differential survival due to an unequal burden of comorbidity. Sweden suffered from an unfortunate timing of tourists returning from virus hotspots in the Alps and Sweden's government response came later and was much more limited than elsewhere. The government had an explicit priority to protect the elderly in nursing and care homes but failed to do so. The staff in elderly care are less qualified and have harder working conditions in Sweden, and they lacked adequate care for the clients. Sweden has in recent years diverged from the Scandinavian welfare model by strong commercialization of primary care and elderly care.

scholarly journals PERIOD AND COHORT DYNAMICS IN FERTILITY NORMS AT THE ONSET OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN KENYA 1978–1998

2007 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. G. WHITE ◽  
C. HALL ◽  
B. WOLFF
Keyword(s):  
Family Size ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Ideal Family Size ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Ideal Family ◽  
Rapid Fall

Summary.A characteristic of African pre-transitional fertility regimes is large ideal family size. This has been used to support claims of cultural entrenchment of high fertility. Yet in Kenya fertility rates have fallen. In this paper this fall is explored in relation to trends in fertility norms and attitudes using four sequential cross-sectional surveys spanning the fertility transition in Kenya (1978, 1984, 1989 and 1998). The most rapid fall in the reported ideal family size occurred between 1984 and 1989, whilst the most rapid fall in the total fertility rate occurred 5 to 10 years later, between 1989 and 1998. Thus these data, spanning the fertility transition in Kenya, support the traditional demographic model that demand for fertility limitation drives fertility decline. These data also suggest that the decline in fertility norms over time was partly a period effect, as the reported ideal family size was seen to fall simultaneously in all age cohorts, and partly a cohort effect, as older age cohorts reporting higher ideal family sizes were replaced by younger cohorts reporting lower ideal family sizes. These data also suggest that a new fertility norm of four children may have developed by 1989 and continued until 1998. This is consistent with, and perhaps could have been used to predict, the stall in the Kenyan fertility decline after 1998.

scholarly journals Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 563-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marika Jalovaara ◽  
Gerda Neyer ◽  
Gunnar Andersson ◽  
Johan Dahlberg ◽  
Lars Dommermuth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nordic Countries ◽  
Cohort Fertility

scholarly journals The length of the dry season may be associated with leaf scleromorphism in cerrado plants

2015 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 1691-1699 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARCELO C. SOUZA ◽  
AUGUSTO C. FRANCO ◽  
MUNDAYATAN HARIDASAN ◽  
DAVI R. ROSSATTO ◽  
JANAÍNA F. DE ARAÚJO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Fertility ◽  
Specific Leaf Area ◽  
Woody Species ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Core Region ◽  
The Other ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Cerrado Vegetation ◽  
Central Brazil

Despite limitations of low fertility and high acidity of the soils, the cerrado flora is the richest amongst savannas. Many cerrado woody species show sclerophyllous leaves, which might be related to the availability of water and nutrients in the soil. To better understand the function and structure of cerrado vegetation within its own variations, we compared two cerrado communities: one in its core region in central Brazil (Brasília, DF) and the other on its southern periphery (Itirapina, SP). We contrasted the length of the dry season, soil fertility rates, leaf concentrations of N, P, K, Ca and Mg and the specific leaf area (SLA) between these communities. The dry season was shorter on the periphery, where the soil was more fertile although more acidic. Plants from the periphery showed higher SLA and higher leaf concentrations of N, P, Ca and Mg. We propose that the higher SLA of plants from the periphery is related to the shorter dry season, which allows better conditions for nutrient uptake.

scholarly journals Nothern European Lessons for Eurasian Integration

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-91
Author(s):  
L. S. Voronkov
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Economic Union ◽  
The Eu

The paper is dedicated to the differences between the classical instruments for regulating interstate political and trade-economic relations from those used in the development of regional integration processes. Traditionally, the Eurasian Economic Union is compared with the European Union, considering the EU as a close example to follow in the development of integration processes. At the same time, there exist the other models of integration. The author proposes to pay attention to the other models of integration and based on the analysis of documents, reveals the experience of Northern Europe, which demonstrates effective cooperation without infringing on the sovereignty of the participants. The author examines the features of the integration experience of the Nordic countries in relation to the possibility of using its elements in the modern integration practice of the Eurasian Economic Union.

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