scholarly journals Trends and Differentials in California Fertility Rates 1970-2000

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Clark A. Davis ◽  
J. Joshua Brown
Keyword(s):  
Prime Factor ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Ethnic Population ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Child Bearing ◽  
The Postponement ◽  
Racial Ethnic

In this article we examined fertility trends in the State of California from 1970 to 2000. During this period, the population of California increased 69.0 percent, while the percentage of females in the prime reproductive years (15-44) increased 76.5 percent. The number of live births increased from 362,652 in 1970 to a high of 611,666 in 1990 and stood at 531,285 in 2000. There were significant shifts in agespecific fertility rates during the 30-year period. Live births per 1,000 females declined in age categories 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 and increased in age categories 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44, suggesting the postponement of child bearing until the later portion of the reproductive cycle. With the exception of 1970 and 1971, total fertility rates were below replacement level fertility through 1986. From 1987 to 2000, they exceeded replacement level fertility, suggesting fertility has returned as a prime factor in the growth of California’s population. With shifting fertility patterns and a diverse racial/ethnic population, the need for education and prenatal care remain as significant policy issues.

Trends and Differentials in California Fertility Rates 1970-2000

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-92
Author(s):  
Clark A. Davis ◽  
J. Joshua Brown
Keyword(s):  
Prime Factor ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Ethnic Population ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Child Bearing ◽  
The Postponement ◽  
Racial Ethnic

In this article we examined fertility trends in the State of California from 1970 to 2000. During this period, the population of California increased 69.0 percent, while the percentage of females in the prime reproductive years (15-44) increased 76.5 percent. The number of live births increased from 362,652 in 1970 to a high of 611,666 in 1990 and stood at 531,285 in 2000. There were significant shifts in agespecific fertility rates during the 30-year period. Live births per 1,000 females declined in age categories 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 and increased in age categories 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44, suggesting the postponement of child bearing until the later portion of the reproductive cycle. With the exception of 1970 and 1971, total fertility rates were below replacement level fertility through 1986. From 1987 to 2000, they exceeded replacement level fertility, suggesting fertility has returned as a prime factor in the growth of California’s population. With shifting fertility patterns and a diverse racial/ethnic population, the need for education and prenatal care remain as significant policy issues.

scholarly journals POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (S1) ◽  
pp. S20-S45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Recent Experience ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Transitional Countries ◽  
Delayed Parenthood ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Late Childbearing

SummaryThis study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

scholarly journals Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Seltzer
Keyword(s):  
Labor Markets ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Restricted Use ◽  
Racial Ethnic

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the U.S., characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forego childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFR) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the period between 2006-2014. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition – specifically, the loss of manufacturing and construction businesses – have a larger effect on TFR than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Since structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time, in contrast to unemployment rates which fluctuate with economic cycles, further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.

scholarly journals How many children does Serbia need?

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 42 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branislav Djurdjev
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Family Planning Program ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Planning Program ◽  
The Third ◽  
Reproductive Life ◽  
Reproductive Life Span

The work is an attempt to determine basic quantities for introducing a family planning program which will be aiming at a replacement level. In order to do that census year 2002 was taken as an example for calculation. Total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman was considered as necessary level and that means Serbia needs 105.000 newborns each year. In accordance with that level a set of five age specific fertility rates (ASFR) were established in order to find appropriate model of reproductive behavior for Serbia. The sets are established in the following manner: multiplying ASFR by quotient between necessary and real number of newborns, by the data from the last year when fertility was large enough to provide for replacement level (with mortality level from 2002), by linear interpolation between two ASFR models and by Brass fertility polynomial. All five different models of age specific fertility rates suggest that there is no ideal distribution of ASFR. Also parity progression from zero to first, from first to second, and from second to third child is determined. The main reason for below replacement level in Serbia is small parity progression from second to third child. So, rearing the third child should be the most stimulated in every family planning program, as long as every second women have them by the end of her reproductive life span.

Non-Marital Pregnancies in Australia since 1947

1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. T. Ruzicka
Keyword(s):  
Married Women ◽  
Social Implications ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Live Births ◽  
The Social

SummaryIn this paper, non-marital pregnancies are defined as the sum of ex-nuptial confinements and the first nuptial confinements delivered within the first 8 months of marriage. Analysis is based on the annual statistics of live births, marriages and female non-married population as enumerated in the 1947–71 censuses. The incidence of non-marital pregnancies increased significantly in Australia between 1947 and 1971. This was found to be mainly due to rising ex-nuptial fertility rates, and, to a much lesser extent, to increased frequency of pre-marital pregnancies. A lesser proportion of pregnant non-married women were married before delivery in 1971 than in 1947. Some of the social implications are discussed.

Cross-Generational Contributors to Preterm Birth in California: Singletons Based on Race/Ethnicity

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (04) ◽  
pp. 383-392
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Rebecca Baer ◽  
Paul Chung ◽  
Laura Jelliffe-Pawlowski ◽  
Tumaini Coker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Preterm Birth ◽  
Preterm Delivery ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Birth Registry ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Racial Ethnic

Objective Multiple studies have examined cross-generational patterns of preterm birth (PTB), yet results have been inconsistent and generally focused on primarily white populations. We examine the cross-generational PTB risk across racial/ethnic groups. Study Design Retrospective study of 388,474 grandmother–mother–infant triads with infants drawn from birth registry of singleton live births between 2005 and 2011 in California. Using logistic regression (odds ratios [ORs] and confidence intervals [CIs]), we examined the risk of preterm delivery by gestational age, sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and obstetric clinical characteristics stratified by maternal race/ethnicity. Results The risk of having a preterm infant <32 weeks was greater for women born at <32 weeks (OR: 2.09, 95% CI: 1.62–2.70) and 32 to 36 weeks (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.35–1.70). This increased risk of preterm delivery was present among women in all race/ethnicity groups (white [AOR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.52–2.63), black [AOR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.37–2.34], Hispanic [AOR: 2.39, 95% CI: 2.05–2.79], and Asian [AOR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.20–3.91]), with hypertension as the only consistent risk factor associated with increased risk of preterm delivery. Conclusion Our findings suggest a cross-generational risk of PTB that is consistent across race/ethnicity with hypertension as the only consistent risk factor.

Racial/Ethnic Transition and Hierarchy Among Ascending Neighborhoods

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 1550-1578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Owens ◽  
Jennifer Candipan
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Predominantly White ◽  
Mixed Race ◽  
Community Survey ◽  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
American Community Survey ◽  
Ethnic Population ◽  
Racial Ethnic

This article examines the racial/ethnic population dynamics of ascending neighborhoods—those experiencing socioeconomic growth. Drawing on Census and American Community Survey data from 1990 to 2010, we first explore whether changes in racial/ethnic composition occur alongside ascent. We find that, while most neighborhoods’ racial/ethnic composition does not dramatically change during this period, neighborhoods that experienced ascent are much more likely to transition from majority-minority to mixed race or predominantly White than nonascending neighborhoods. Then, we use microdata to analyze whether two potential drivers of ascent, the in-migration of higher-socioeconomic status (SES) households and changes in the fortunes of long-term residents, are racially/ethnically stratified. We argue that the process of neighborhood socioeconomic ascent perpetuates neighborhood racial/ethnic hierarchy. While most Black and Hispanic neighborhoods remain majority-minority, those that ascend are more likely to experience a succession of high-SES White residents replacing minority residents.

The decline in fertility in England and Wales since 1964

1977 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-237
Author(s):  
G. N. Pollard
Keyword(s):  
Family Size ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Young Mothers ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Specific Group ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Age At Marriage ◽  
Interaction Component ◽  
Number Of Births

SummaryThe decline in the number of legitimate live births in England and Wales from the peak in 1964 has been partitioned into components due to changes in fertility rates, components due to changes in the composition of the population exposed to risk, and an interaction component. Fertility rates specific for age of mother at birth of child, duration of marriage, parity and age of mother at marriage were considered but in all cases it was found that the decline was not as great as the change in fertility rates implied. This was due to increases in the number of births due to changes in the composition of the population exposed to risk.The decline in the number of births due to changes in fertility rates specific for age of mother/duration of marriage/parity/age at marriage has been expressed as a percentage of the number of births to each specific group and it was found that generally the percentage decline became greater as age of mother/duration of marriage/parity/age at marriage increased. However this did not apply for the youngest age groups, the shortest durations of marriage, the youngest ages at marriage and the lowest parity. This result needs further investigation. Is this evidence of a deferment of births by young mothers (with short durations, low parities and young ages at marriage)? Alternatively, is this evidence of the beginning of a really significant and widespread change of attitude to family size?

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