Epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus during 2006–2013 in Tai'an, Northern China

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (11) ◽  
pp. 2451-2458 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. ZHENG ◽  
H.-L. YANG ◽  
Z.-W. BI ◽  
Z.-Q. KOU ◽  
L.-Y. ZHANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scrub Typhus ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Epidemiological Methods ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
High Incidence

SUMMARYTai'an, a famous cultural tourist district, is a new endemic foci of scrub typhus in northern China. Frequent reports of travel-acquired cases and absence of effective vaccine indicated a significant health problem of scrub typhus in Tai'an. Thus, descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal scan statistics were used to describe the epidemic characteristics and detect the significant clusters of the high incidence of scrub typhus at the town level in Tai'an. Results of descriptive epidemiological analysis showed a total of 490 cases were reported in Tai'an with the annual average incidence ranging from 0·48 to 2·27/100 000 during 2006–2013. Females, the elderly and farmers are the high-risk groups. Monthly changes of scrub typhus cases indicated an obvious epidemic period in autumn. Spatial-temporal distribution analysis, showed significant clusters of high incidence mainly located in eastern and northern Tai'an. Our study suggests that more effective, targeted measures for local residents should be implemented in the eastern and northern areas of Tai'an in autumn. Meanwhile, it may prove beneficial for health policy makers to advise travellers to take preventive measures in order to minimize the risk of infection of scrub typhus in Tai'an.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Mumps from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (17) ◽  
pp. 3052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Zhao ◽  
Ou ◽  
Xiang ◽  
Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Time Space ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Mumps vaccines have been widely used in recent years, but frequent mumps outbreaks and re-emergence around the world have not stopped. Mumps still remains a serious public health problem with a high incidence in China. The status of mumps epidemics in Chongqing, the largest city in China, is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological and spatiotemporal characteristics of mumps and to provide a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies for its prevention and control. Surveillance data of mumps in Chongqing from January 2004 to December 2018 were collected from the National Notifiable Diseases Reporting Information System. A descriptive analysis was conducted to understand the epidemiological characteristics. Hot spots and spatiotemporal patterns were identified by performing a spatial autocorrelation analysis, a purely spatial scan, and a spatiotemporal scan at the county level based on geographic information systems. A total of 895,429 mumps cases were reported in Chongqing, with an annual average incidence of 36.34 per 100,000. The yearly incidence of mumps decreased markedly from 2004 to 2007, increased sharply from 2007 to 2011, and then tapered with a two-year cyclical peak after 2011. The onset of mumps showed an obvious bimodal seasonal distribution, with a higher peak of mumps observed from April to July of each year. Children aged 5–9 years old, males, and students were the prime high-risk groups. The spatial distribution of mumps did not exhibit significant global autocorrelation in most years, but local indicators of spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics detected high-incidence clusters which were mainly located in the midwestern, western, northeastern, and southwestern parts of Chongqing. The aggregation time frame detected by the purely temporal scan was between March 2009 and July 2013. The incidence of mumps in Chongqing from 2004 to 2018 featured significant spatial heterogeneity and spatiotemporal clustering. The findings of this study might assist public health agencies to develop real-time space monitoring, especially in the clustering regions and at peak periods; to improve immunization strategies for long-term prevention; and to deploy health resources reasonably.

scholarly journals A Spatio-temporal distribution analysis of vesicular stomatitis outbreak in Ecuador, 2018

Bionatura ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
María Teresa Salinas ◽  
Euclides José De La Torre ◽  
Paola Katerine Moreno ◽  
Andrés Alejandro Vaca ◽  
Rubén Alexander Maldonado
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Tissue Samples ◽  
Vesicular Stomatitis

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is a viral disease primarily affecting cattle, swine, and equine causing economic losses. It is of particular interest because its outward signs are similar to those of foot-and-mouth disease. Outbreaks of VS occurred in several herds in Ecuador in 2018, affecting principally bovines. In this sense, the present study was conducted to characterize the temporal and spatial dynamics of Vesicular stomatitis occurrence between January and December 2018. During the study period, 583 animals with symptoms of VS were reported. In this way, tissue samples were collected, VS was diagnosed, and outbreaks were defined as herds with a confirmed positive test for the disease. Outbreaks were georeferenced, and Space-time clusters were used to determine zones where the number of reported outbreaks was more significant than expected. A space-time permutation scan statistic (STPSS) was used to identify hot spots of space-time interaction within patterns of the cases reported. Standard Monte Carlo Critical Value was used to test for the cluster's significance. A total of 399 outbreaks were presented in 18 provinces. Spatial scan statistics allowed the detection of four significant space-time clusters of VS outbreaks. The highest incidence was reported around week 35 and week 44, which were observed outbreaks increase in the country's north region. In this sense, clusters coincided with the areas with the highest incidence of outbreaks. Besides, maps showed places where the disease is not shared. The information showed in the present study may contribute to prevents VS spread into regions of Ecuador that is only sporadically affected by the disease. Monitoring in affected zones may lead to quick responses to possible outbreaks issuing alerts when there is a greater than typical risk of spreading the disease

Development and Validation of Nomogram to Predict Very Early Recurrence of Combined Hepatocellular-Cholangiocarcinoma After Hepatic Resection: A Multi-Institutional Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yijun Wu ◽  
Hongzhi Liu ◽  
Jianxing Zeng ◽  
Yifan Chen ◽  
Guoxu Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Early Recurrence ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Good Discrimination ◽  
Decision Curve Analysis ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Combined Hepatocellular Cholangiocarcinoma ◽  
Development And Validation

Abstract Background and Objectives Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC) has a high incidence of early recurrence. The objective of this study is to construct a model predicting very early recurrence (VER)(ie, recurrence within 6 months after surgery) of cHCC. Methods 131 consecutive patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital served as a development cohort to construct a nomogram predicting VER by using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The model was internally and externally validated in an validation cohort of 90 patients from Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital using the C concordance statistic, calibration analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The VER nomogram contains microvascular invasion(MiVI), macrovascular invasion(MaVI) and CA19-9>25mAU/mL. The model shows good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.77 (95%CI: 0.69 - 0.85 ) and 0.76 (95%CI:0.66 - 0.86) in the development cohort and validation cohort respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model are clinically useful and the calibration of our model was favorable. Our model stratified patients into two different risk groups, which exhibited significantly different VER. Conclusions Our model demonstrated favorable performance in predicting VER in cHCC patients.

scholarly journals Alteration ofp19mRNA expression in esophageal cancer tissue from patients at high incidence area in northern China

1998 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Jun Qi ◽  
Li-Dong Wang ◽  
Yan Nie ◽  
Christine Cai ◽  
Guang-Yu Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Cancer Tissue ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
High Incidence Area

scholarly journals Numerical rainfall simulation with different spatial and temporal evenness by using WRF multi-physics ensembles

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Fuliang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Relative Error ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Rainfall Simulation ◽  
Average Relative Error ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Cumulative Rainfall ◽  
Study Sites

Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in this study to simulate six storm events in two semi-humid and semi-arid catchments of Northern China. The six storm events are classified into four types based on the rainfall evenness in the spatial and temporal dimensions. Two microphysics, two planetary boundary layers (PBL) and three cumulus parameterizations are combined to develop 12 physical ensembles for rainfall generation. The WRF model performs the best for Type 1 event with relatively even distributions of rainfall in both space and time. The average relative error (ARE) for the cumulative rainfall amount is 16.98 %. For the spatial rainfall simulation, the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) is found with event II (0.3989) which has the most even spatial distribution, and for the temporal simulation the lowest RMSE is found with event I (1.0171) which has the most even temporal distribution. It is found to be the most difficult to reproduce the very convective storm with uneven spatiotemporal distributions (Type 4 event) and the average relative error (ARE) for the cumulative rainfall amounts is up to 68.07 %. The RMSE results of Event III with the most uneven spatial and temporal distribution are 0.9363 for the spatial simulation and 2.7769 for the temporal simulation, which are much higher than the other storms. The general performance of the current WRF physical parameterisations is discussed. The Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) is found to be unsuitable for rainfall simulation in the study sites. For Type 1, 2, and 4 storms, ensemble 4 performs the best. For Type 3 storms, ensemble 5 and 7 are the better choice. More guidance is provided for choosing among the physical parameterisations for accurate rainfall simulations of different storm types in the study area.

scholarly journals Screening for Melanoma and Options For-Its Evaluation

1994 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
J M Elwood
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Randomised Trial ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Population Screening ◽  
Data Systems ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
Published Evidence ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Age Range

A review of the published evidence presented here argues that screening for melanoma is recommended and practised at present, but with wide diversity of opinions about its value; there is evidence that screening has considerable potential for benefit, but the evidence of actual benefit is limited; and there are substantial costs and potential hazards from screening. On this basis the evaluation of screening procedures for melanoma is important, and options for this are discussed. The ideal study design to assess the efficacy of melanoma screening in reducing mortality is a large scale randomised trial. This may need a well coordinated proposal involving several centres in one or more countries, and the cost would be substantial. Without such a trial, however, it is most likely that increasing resources will be put into poorly designed screening programmes of unknown value. The simplest and strongest designs use individual randomisation, but group randomisation designs may have practical advantages, though they require a greater sample size. Designs based on general population screening, and on screening only high risk groups, are both considered. They answer different questions. In countries with high incidence the value of general population screening is probably the more critical. Not enough is known to specify the type and frequency of screening precisely; both screening by doctors and self screening require evaluation, and annual screening should probably be tested. The age range at risk will depend on the local incidence, but is likely to be quite wide — for example, 45–69, and both sexes need inclusion. Thus a suggested design for a moderate to high incidence area would be a trial, randomised by individual or group, assessing at least two annual rounds of both screening by doctor and self screening (ideally by a factorial design), for adults aged 45–69, with mortality over several years' follow up as the critical outcome. In an area with good data systems such a study could compare screening offered to some 260.000 subjects with 10 times that number of controls passively followed up, with 90% power to detect a one third reduction in mortality. A general assessment of costs over five years gave estimates of $8.3 million for the screening programme and $2.4 million for the evaluation. The much weaker designs, area based cohort studies using individual data or a simpler ecological comparison, and case-control studies, are also considered. If well designed with attention to their methodological limitations they may be valuable but are unlikely to be as definitive as a randomised trial.

An investigation on the polymorphisms of two DNA repair genes and susceptibility to ESCC and GCA of high-incidence region in northern China

2007 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 357-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Wang ◽  
Xiu-juan Dong ◽  
Rong-miao Zhou ◽  
Wei Guo ◽  
Xiao-juan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dna Repair ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Dna Repair Genes ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Repair Genes

scholarly journals Numerical rainfall simulation with different spatial and temporal evenness by using a WRF multiphysics ensemble

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 563-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyang Tian ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Denghua Yan ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Fuliang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Relative Error ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Rainfall Simulation ◽  
Average Relative Error ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Cumulative Rainfall ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in this study to simulate six storm events in two semi-humid catchments of northern China. The six storm events are classified into four types based on the rainfall evenness in the spatial and temporal dimensions. Two microphysics, two planetary boundary layers (PBL) and three cumulus parameterizations are combined to develop an ensemble containing 16 members for rainfall generation. The WRF model performs the best for type 1 events with relatively even distributions of rainfall in both space and time. The average relative error (ARE) for the cumulative rainfall amount is 15.82 %. For the spatial rainfall simulation, the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) is found with event II (0.4007), which has the most even spatial distribution, and for the temporal simulation the lowest RMSE is found with event I (1.0218), which has the most even temporal distribution. The most difficult to reproduce are found to be the very convective storms with uneven spatiotemporal distributions (type 4 event), and the average relative error for the cumulative rainfall amounts is up to 66.37 %. The RMSE results of event III, with the most uneven spatial and temporal distribution, are 0.9688 for the spatial simulation and 2.5327 for the temporal simulation, which are much higher than the other storms. The general performance of the current WRF physical parameterizations is discussed. The Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) scheme is found to be unsuitable for rainfall simulation in the study sites. For type 1, 2 and 4 storms, member 4 performs the best. For type 3 storms, members 5 and 7 are the better choice. More guidance is provided for choosing among the physical parameterizations for accurate rainfall simulations of different storm types in the study area.

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