THE WELFARE COST OF EXCESS VOLATILITY IN INCOMPLETE MARKETS WITH SUNSPOTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1062-1073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minwook Kang
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Markets ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Welfare Cost ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Allocation ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Pareto Criterion ◽  
Sunspot Equilibria ◽  
Level I ◽  
Different Levels

In an incomplete markets economy with sunspots, the Pareto-criterion cannot rank sunspot equilibria of different levels of excess price-level volatility. Therefore, I propose a measure of excess volatility cost in terms of a period-0 endowment good. Ex-ante endowment subsidies are provided, in theory, to each consumer, so that the resulting equilibrium allocation of the higher volatility is Pareto-equivalent to the original benchmark equilibrium with a lower volatility level. The aggregate volatility cost is computed as the sum of all consumers' subsidies. Focusing on local analysis that considers small variations around a given volatility level, I show that the aggregate cost strictly increases in volatility even though each individual cost does not necessarily have this property.

scholarly journals A tutorial on capturing mental representations through drawing and crowd-sourced scoring

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilma A. Bainbridge
Keyword(s):  
Computer Vision ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Mental Representations ◽  
Mental Image ◽  
Crowd Sourcing ◽  
Web Architecture ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Level I ◽  
Type Studies ◽  
Different Levels

When we draw, we are depicting a rich mental representation reflecting a memory, percept, schema, imagination, or feeling. In spite of the abundance of data created by drawings, drawings are rarely used as an output measure in the field of psychology, due to concerns about their large variance and their difficulty of quantification. However, recent work leveraging pen-tracking, computer vision, and online crowd-sourcing has revealed new ways to capture and objectively quantify drawings, to answer a wide range of questions across fields of psychology. Here, I present a tutorial on modern methods for drawing experiments, ranging from how to quantify pen-and-paper type studies, up to how to administer a fully closed-loop online experiment. I go through the concrete steps of designing a drawing experiment, recording drawings, and objectively quantifying them through online crowd-sourcing and computer vision methods. Included with this tutorial are code examples at different levels of complexity and tutorials designed to teach basic lessons about web architecture and be useful regardless of skill level. I also discuss key methodological points of consideration, and provide a series of potential jumping points for drawing studies across fields in psychology and neuroscience. I hope this tutorial will arm more researchers with the skills to capture these naturalistic snapshots of a mental image.

MONEY TAXES, MARKET SEGMENTATION, AND SUNSPOT EQUILIBRIA

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-352
Author(s):  
Todd Keister
Keyword(s):  
Market Segmentation ◽  
Competitive Equilibrium ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Fiat Money ◽  
Lump Sum ◽  
General Price Level ◽  
Redistribution Policy ◽  
Sunspot Equilibria ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates how volatile the general price level can be in an equilibrium where all uncertainty is extrinsic. The government operates a lump-sum redistribution policy using fiat money. An approach to modeling asset market segmentation is introduced in which this tax policy determines how volatile the price level can be, which in turn determines the volatility of consumption. The paper characterizes (i) the set of general price levels consistent with the existence of competitive equilibrium and (ii) the resulting set of equilibrium allocations. The results demonstrate how redistribution policies that are fixed in nominal terms can have a destabilizing effect on an economy, and show how to evaluate the amount of volatility that a particular policy may induce.

scholarly journals L2 English derivational knowledge: Which affixes are learners more likely to recognise?

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-248
Author(s):  
Dmitri Leontjev
Keyword(s):  
Language Learning ◽  
English Language ◽  
Mother Tongue ◽  
Vocabulary Knowledge ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Upper Secondary ◽  
Level I ◽  
Segmentation Task ◽  
Upper Secondary Schools ◽  
Different Levels

Knowledge of derivational morphology is considered an important aspect of vocabulary knowledge both in L1 (mother tongue) and L2 (second or foreign language) English language learning. However, it is still not clear whether different derivational affixes vary in their (learning) difficulty. The present study examines whether Bauer and Nation’s (1993) teaching order of L2 English affixes can account for the difficulty learners have with recognising the affixes. The participants in the study were L1 Estonian and Russian learners of English at upper-secondary schools in Estonia (n = 62). Their performance was measured on a word segmentation task. There were significant differences in the number of affixes the learners were able to successfully recognise at different levels, as classified by Bauer and Nation (1993). By and large, with the exception of no significant difference between Level 5 and Level 6 affixes, the higher the affix level was, the less likely the learners were to recognise the affixes at this level. I argue that these results can support the order proposed by Bauer and Nation. The implications of the finding for teaching and further research are also discussed.

scholarly journals Associations of COVID-19 lockdown with gestational length and preterm birth in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moran Dong ◽  
Rui Qian ◽  
Jiaqi Wang ◽  
Jingjie Fan ◽  
Yufeng Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Birth ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Exposed Group ◽  
Cumulative Exposure ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Gestational Length ◽  
Unexposed Group ◽  
Gestational Week ◽  
Level I ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract Background The effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on maternal and fetal health remain unclear. We examined the associations of COVID-19 lockdown with gestational length and preterm birth (PTB) in a Chinese population. Methods We obtained medical records of 595,396 singleton live infants born between 2015 and 2020 in 5 cities in Guangdong Province, South China. The exposed group (N = 101,900) included women who experienced the COVID-19 Level I lockdown (1/23–2/24/2020) during pregnancy, while the unexposed group (N = 493,496) included women who were pregnant during the same calendar months in 2015–2019. Cumulative exposure was calculated based on days exposed to different levels of emergency responses with different weighting. Generalized linear regression models were applied to estimate the associations of lockdown exposure with gestational length and risk of PTB (< 37 weeks). Results The exposed group had a shorter mean gestational length than the unexposed group (38.66 vs 38.74 weeks: adjusted β = − 0.06 week [95%CI, − 0.07, − 0.05 week]). The exposed group also had a higher risk of PTB (5.7% vs 5.3%; adjusted OR = 1.08 [95%CI, 1.05, 1.11]). These associations seemed to be stronger when exposure occurred before or during the 23rd gestational week (GW) than during or after the 24th GW. Similarly, higher cumulative lockdown exposure was associated with a shorter gestational length and a higher risk of PTB. Conclusions The COVID-19 lockdown measures were associated with a slightly shorter gestational length and a moderately higher risk of PTB. Early and middle pregnancy periods may be a more susceptible exposure window.

THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE PREMATURE INFANT

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1959 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 166-171
Author(s):  
William A. Silverman
Keyword(s):  
Physical Environment ◽  
Moral Obligation ◽  
Vascular Changes ◽  
Retrolental Fibroplasia ◽  
Carnegie Corporation ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Clinical Level ◽  
Level I ◽  
Ward Rounds ◽  
Different Levels

I AM MOST grateful to the Academy for naming me as the recipient of an E. Mead Johnson Award for 1958 and pleased beyond measure by this great honor. I cannot allow this moment to pass without acknowledging with pleasure my debt of gratitude to Dr. Richard Day, who first awakened in me a curiosity about the meaning of proof for a clinician and to Dr. John W. Fertig for his patience as teacher, critic and collaborator. This decision of the Awards Committee has given me cause for reflection. I interpret it to signal approval of and benevolent interest in the use of the planned trial as a device to help answer questions at the clinical level. I am encouraged to think that the rules of evidence that have applied in the laboratory are now increasingly consulted on ward rounds. Mr. John W. Gardner, president of the Carnegie Corporation, recently commented upon the difficulties that result from the acceptance of a double standard of excellence at different levels of human activity; he stated that, ". . . The society which scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy. Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water." F. H. K. Green has recently been quoted as saying, ". . . when the value of a treatment, new or old, is doubtful, there may be a higher moral obligation to test it critically than to continue to prescribe it year-in, year-out with the support merely of custom or of wishful thinking." I am encouraged to believe that we have arrived at a point in time when this moral obligation may be included as one of our clinical responsibilities. We were required to consider our responsibility very closely in this regard about 8 years ago when confronted with the challenge of retrolental fibroplasia. As we watched the early vascular changes of this condition develop, we reasoned that these proliferating vessels might be halted by the then newly available hormone, adrenocorticotropin (ACTH). We gave this substance to an infant when, from the appearance of the ocular fundi, it was clear that the disease was progressing. The fundi of this infant returned to normal. This sequence of events was repeated following the treatment of many infants during the next year.

scholarly journals Associations of COVID-19 Lockdown with Gestational Length and Preterm Birth in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moran Dong ◽  
Rui Qian ◽  
Jiaqi Wang ◽  
Jingjie Fan ◽  
Yufeng Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Birth ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Exposed Group ◽  
Cumulative Exposure ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Gestational Length ◽  
Unexposed Group ◽  
Gestational Week ◽  
Level I ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract BackgroundThe effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures on maternal and fetal health remain unclear. We examined the associations of COVID-19 lockdown with gestational length and preterm birth (PTB) in a Chinese population.MethodsWe obtained medical records of 595396 singleton live infants born between 2015 and 2020 in 5 cities in Guangdong Province, South China. The exposed group (N=101900) included women who experienced the COVID-19 Level I lockdown (1/23-2/24/2020) during pregnancy, while the unexposed group (N=493496) included women who were pregnant during the same calendar months in 2015-2019. Cumulative exposure was calculated based on days exposed to different levels of emergency responses with different weighting. Generalized linear regression models were applied to estimate the associations of lockdown exposure with gestational length and risk of PTB (<37 weeks).ResultsThe exposed group had a shorter mean gestational length than the unexposed group (38.66 vs 38.74 weeks: adjusted β=-0.06 week [95%CI, -0.07, -0.05 week]). The exposed group also had a higher risk of PTB (5.7% vs 5.3%; adjusted OR=1.08 [95%CI, 1.05, 1.11]). These associations seemed to be stronger when exposure occurred before or during the 23rd gestational week (GW) than during or after the 24th GW. Similarly, higher cumulative lockdown exposure was associated with a shorter gestational length and a higher risk of PTB.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 lockdown measures were associated with a slightly shorter gestational length and a moderately higher risk of PTB. Early and middle pregnancy periods may be a more susceptible exposure window.

Hydroelasticity of an infinitely long plate in oblique waves: Linear Green-Naghdi theory

2002 ◽  
Vol 216 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
J W Kim ◽  
R C Ertekin
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Finite Depth ◽  
Present Theory ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Finite Width ◽  
Mass Force ◽  
Oblique Waves ◽  
Level I ◽  
Hydroelastic Response

The Level I Green-Naghdi (GN) theory is developed, within the assumptions of linearity, to analyse the hydroelastic response of an infinitely long elastic plate of finite width. The plate is freely floating on the free surface of finite depth and in regular oblique waves. An equation of motion is obtained that is similar to the shallow-water wave equation of Stoker, but which possesses an improved dispersion relation and includes the added-mass force due to the vertical motion of the fluid column. Comparisons with the available experimental data for the special case of beam seas show good agreement with the present theory. An explicit solution is also obtained when the plate is very wide. A local analysis near the critical wave number is made for the solution, and it is shown that the deflection of the plate, not necessarily at its edges, can be made arbitrarily large by increasing the width of the plate.

scholarly journals Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others

2003 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 145-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars E.O Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Price Level ◽  
Direct Consequence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Concrete Action ◽  
Level I ◽  
Level 2

Existing proposals to escape from a liquidity trap and deflation, including my “Foolproof Way,” are discussed in the light of the optimal way to escape. The optimal way involves three elements: (1) an explicit central-bank commitment to a higher future price level; (2) a concrete action that demonstrates the central bank's commitment, induces expectations of a higher future price level and jump-starts the economy; and (3) an exit strategy that specifies when and how to get back to normal. A currency depreciation is a direct consequence of expectations of a higher future price level and hence an excellent indicator of those expectations. Furthermore, an intentional currency depreciation and a crawling peg, as in the Foolproof Way, can implement the optimal way and, in particular, induce the desired expectations of a higher future price level. I conclude that the Foolproof Way is likely to work well for Japan, which is in a liquidity trap now, as well as for the euro area and the United States, in case either would fall into a liquidity trap in the future.

scholarly journals A tutorial on capturing mental representations through drawing and crowd-sourced scoring

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilma A. Bainbridge
Keyword(s):  
Computer Vision ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Mental Representations ◽  
Mental Image ◽  
Crowd Sourcing ◽  
Web Architecture ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Level I ◽  
Type Studies ◽  
Different Levels

AbstractWhen we draw, we are depicting a rich mental representation reflecting a memory, percept, schema, imagination, or feeling. In spite of the abundance of data created by drawings, drawings are rarely used as an output measure in the field of psychology, due to concerns about their large variance and their difficulty of quantification. However, recent work leveraging pen-tracking, computer vision, and online crowd-sourcing has revealed new ways to capture and objectively quantify drawings, to answer a wide range of questions across fields of psychology. Here, I present a tutorial on modern methods for drawing experiments, ranging from how to quantify pen-and-paper type studies, up to how to administer a fully closed-loop online experiment. I go through the concrete steps of designing a drawing experiment, recording drawings, and objectively quantifying them through online crowd-sourcing and computer vision methods. Included with this tutorial are code examples at different levels of complexity and tutorials designed to teach basic lessons about web architecture and be useful regardless of skill level. I also discuss key methodological points of consideration, and provide a series of potential jumping points for drawing studies across fields in psychology. I hope this tutorial will arm more researchers with the skills to capture these naturalistic snapshots of a mental image.

scholarly journals A new methodology to predict damage tolerance based on compliance via global-local analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (58) ◽  
pp. 211-230
Author(s):  
Gilberto Gomes ◽  
Thiago A A Oliveira ◽  
Alvaro M Delgado Neto
Keyword(s):  
Damage Tolerance ◽  
Tolerance Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Damage Tolerance Analysis ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Different Levels

Over the years several design philosophies to fatigue developed in order to combine structural safety and economy to manufacturing and operating aircraft process. The safe-life approach, which consists of designing and manufacturing a safe aeronautical structure throughout its useful life, results in factors that oversize the structural elements, preventing the possibility of failure and evidently leading to high design costs. On the other hand, the approach based on the damage tolerance concept, in which it is assumed that the structure, even whether damaged, is able to withstand the actions for which it was designed until the detection of a crack due to fatigue or other defects during its operation. Here, we propose a new methodology to the damage tolerance problem in which two-dimensional global-local analysis at different levels of external requests will be made by means of compliance, aimed at finding a relationship between fatigue life and the Paris constant. Moreover, the BemCracker2D program for simulating two-dimensional crack growth is used. This methodology has been proved to be an efficient and applied alternative in the damage tolerance analysis.

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