The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Steffen Ahrens ◽  
Joep Lustenhouwer ◽  
Michele Tettamanzi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Historic Development ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract Expectations are among the main driving forces for economic dynamics. Therefore, managing expectations has become a primary objective for monetary policy seeking to stabilize the business cycle. In this paper, we study whether central banks can manage private-sector expectations by means of publishing one-period ahead inflation projections in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment. Subjects in the experiment observe these projections along with the historic development of the economy and subsequently submit their own one-period ahead inflation forecasts. In this context, we find that the central bank can significantly manage private-sector expectations and that this management strongly supports monetary policy in stabilizing the economy. Moreover, published central bank inflation projections drastically reduce the probability of a deflationary spiral after strong negative shocks to the economy.

scholarly journals The price stability oriented monetary policy of the European Central Bank

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Wojciech Gasiński ◽  
Anna Misztal
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
European Central ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
European System

The aim of this paper is to present the price stability oriented monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The European Central Bank began activities in 1998 and the primary objective of the European System of Central Banks is to maintain price stability and the ESCB should also support the general economic policies in the Community. Monetary policy is a special tool that national governments and central banks uses to influence on its economy, especially to control the supply of money and to influence on the level of economic indicators. This paper investigates the assumed objective of the European System of Central Banks which is to maintain price stability. What is more, we would like to present the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank and analysis of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

scholarly journals Framework for Preserving Financial Stability in Montenegro

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoje Žugić ◽  
Nikola Fabris
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract The global financial crisis has challenged the traditional monetary policy framework of one instrument (short-term interest rates) - one objective (price stability). More and more central banks nowadays consider financial stability as a monetary policy objective, whereas the Central Bank of Montenegro is the only one that has identified financial stability as its primary objective. As this is a relatively new objective, all central banks endeavouring to attain this objective have been facing numerous difficulties. Therefore, the article analyzes some of these difficulties such as defining financial (in)stability, the selection of indicators, macroeconomic environment for preserving financial stability, and the like. The main objective of the paper is to analyse the framework for preserving financial stability in Montenegro and the challenges that the Central Bank of Montenegro has been facing in accomplishing this objective

scholarly journals Should Monetary Policy Respond To Asset Price Bubbles? Revisiting the Debate

2008 ◽  
Vol 206 ◽  
pp. 25-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushil Wadhwani
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Asset Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

Recent events have highlighted the importance of asset prices to central bank decisions. We argue that, in response to asset price bubbles, central banks should ‘lean against the wind’ (LATW hereafter). Even if the bubbles themselves are not significantly affected by LATW, macroeconomic performance can be improved if monetary policy reacts to asset price misalignments over and above the reaction to fixed horizon inflation forecasts. In addition, it might reduce the probability of bubbles arising at all. This article restates the case for LATW, and reviews the debate. In particular I respond to various criticisms that have been made against LATW and briefly consider alternative policies designed to make the financial system less cyclical.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Transparency

2014 ◽  
pp. 67-97
Author(s):  
Petra Geraats
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Empirical Measures ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
The World ◽  
Monetary Policy Transparency

This chapter examines transparency as a key feature of monetary policymaking by central banks around the world. It begins by presenting a conceptual framework for transparency and reviewing empirical measures, practices, and trends in monetary policy transparency. It then looks at theory regarding macroeconomic transparency as well as relevant empirical evidence. It also considers two ways in which monetary policy has become more transparent: the publication of macroeconomic forecasts and analysis and the disclosure of forward guidance about policy actions. The chapter illustrates how transparency allows the private sector to align its expectations with those of the central bank, making monetary policy more effective in the process.

scholarly journals Learning, robust monetary policy and the merit of precaution

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marine Charlotte André ◽  
Meixing Dai
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Dynamic Stability ◽  
Adaptive Learning ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Optimal Behavior

Abstract We study in a New Keynesian framework the consequences of adaptive learning for the design of robust monetary policy. Compared to rational expectations, the fact that private sector follows adaptive learning gives the central bank an additional intertemporal trade-off between optimal behavior in the present and in later periods thanks to its ability to manipulate future inflation expectations. We show that adaptive learning imposes a more restrictive constraint on monetary policy robustness to ensure the dynamic stability of the equilibrium than under rational expectations but strengthens the argument in favor of a more aggressive monetary policy when the central bank fears for model misspecifications.

scholarly journals Testing for Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Felix S. Nyumuah
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Less Developed Countries ◽  
Reaction Function ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Asymmetric Preferences ◽  
Policy Reaction Function

The linear specification of the ideal monetary policy reaction function has been questioned in recent times by researchers. They have suggested a nonlinear framework where central banks exhibit asymmetric behaviours. Despite the important policy implications of having asymmetric central bank preferences, studies have been on single-country basis focusing almost entirely on advanced economies. The aim of this study is to check the existence of asymmetric preferences on the part of central banks in the context of a panel of countries and not just a single a country. The study derives and estimates a nonlinear flexible optimal monetary policy rule, which permits zone-like as well as asymmetric behaviours using panel data from a range of countries both developed and less developed. Although the findings indicate the presence of asymmetric preferences on the output gap across less developed countries, generally, the evidence is in favour of a linear policy reaction function and symmetric central bank preferences. These findings mean that monetary policy is characterised by a linear policy rule and symmetric central bank preferences. The results also indicate that interest rate ‘smoothing’ reaction by monetary authorities is more pronounced in less developed countries than in developed ones.

scholarly journals Unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: A brief recapitulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Ilona Skibińska-Fabrowska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
European Central ◽  
National Bank

<p>The financial and economic crisis that has hit many economies in recent years has significantly increased the activity of central banks. After using the standard instruments of conducting monetary policy, in view of the obstruction of monetary impulse transmission channels, they reached for non-standard instruments. Among them, asset purchase programs played a signifciant role. The European Central Bank (ECB) launched the largest asset purchase programme (APP) of this type in 2014 and expired in December 2018. The aim of the undertaken activities was to improve the situation on the financial market and stimulate economic growth. The article reviews the literature and results of research on the effects of the program and indicates the possibility of using the ECB’s experience in conducting monetary policy by the National Bank of Poland.</p>

scholarly journals Business cycle synchronization and monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bankarstvo ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 8-20
Author(s):  
Dragan Jović
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Great Part ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Further Development ◽  
Discretionary Monetary Policy ◽  
New Instruments

By adopting the currency board at the end of the last century, and by pegging its exchange rate to the Euro, a quarter of a century ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina surrendered a great part of its monetary policy in the hand of European Central Bank in the hope that the synchronization of the business cycle will make foreign monetary policy completely suitable for Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time during these two decades, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been developing and using reserve requirement and remuneration as discretionary instruments of monetary policy. The research shows that the domestic business cycle and the foreign one are relatively weakly synchronized compared to other countries' degree of synchronization, and by this findings current discretionary monetary policy and its further development and enrichment with new instruments is fully justified. Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue with developing its own discretionary monetary policy without relying on foreign monetary policy.

scholarly journals Can inflation forecast and monetary policy path be really useful? The case of the Czech Republic

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko ◽  
Karolina Tura
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Parametric Statistics

Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.

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