Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (02) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles M. Evers ◽  
Aleksandr Fisher ◽  
Steven D. Schaaf
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
The Public ◽  
Partisan Polarization

Does President Trump face domestic costs for foreign policy inconsistency? Will co-partisans and opposition-partisans equally punish Donald Trump for issuing flippant international threats and backing down? While the president said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” without losing voters, the literature consistently shows that individuals, regardless of partisanship, disapprove of leaders who jeopardize the country’s reputation for credibility and resolve. Given the atypical nature of the Trump presidency, and the severe partisan polarization surrounding it, we investigate whether the logic of audience costs still applies in the Trump era. Using a unique experiment fielded during the 2016 presidential transition, we show that Republicans and Democrats impose equal audience costs on President Trump. And by varying the leader’s identity, between Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and “The President,” we demonstrate that the public adheres to a non-partisan logic in punishing leaders who renege on threats. Yet we also find Presidents Trump and Obama can reduce the magnitude of audience costs by justifying backing down as being “in America’s interest.” Even Democrats, despite their doubts of Donald Trump’s credibility, accept such justifications. Our findings encourage further exploration of partisan cues, leader-level attributes, and leader-level reputations.

scholarly journals Transformation of the U. S. National Strategy for Counterterrorism during the presidency of Barack Obama

2021 ◽  
pp. 48-58
Author(s):  
Tamara Guramovna Marzoeva
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Smart Power ◽  
White House ◽  
George Bush ◽  
Multilateral Cooperation

Tracing the evolution of Barack Obama's National Strategy for Counterterrorism is relevant for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, foreign policy and globalist trends were the reason for coming to power of the next president-isolationist Donald Trump. Secondly, many experts believe that the current administration of the White House pursues a successive foreign policy course namely in relation to the concept of B. Obama. And ultimately, consideration of the factors that affect the transformation of foreign policy strategy, and its counterterrorism component in particular, may contribute to forecasting similar processes under other administrations. The conclusion is made that Barack Obama preferred multilateral cooperation over unilateral coercive course; and the vector towards harmonization of relations with the Muslim world triggered the revision of the “struggle against terrorism” paradigm of George Bush Jr. B. Obama’s administration declared the transition from the concept of preventive strikes towards the concept of “smart power” and “leading from behind”, which manifested in the course of anti-terrorist operation in Syria. The author notes that the activity of Barack Obama in countering international terrorism is characterized by the departure from the tactics of conducting large-scale and costly wars of George Bush Jr. to joint targeted counterterrorism operations.

The Twittering Presidents

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Wignell ◽  
Sabine Tan ◽  
Kay L. O’Halloran ◽  
Kevin Chai
Keyword(s):  
Text Analysis ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Social Harmony ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
President Obama ◽  
The Public ◽  
Multimodal Discourse Analysis ◽  
Multimodal Discourse ◽  
Manual Analysis ◽  
Automated Text Analysis

Abstract This paper uses a Systemic Functional Multimodal Discourse Analysis (SF-MDA) approach to analyse tweets from the Twitter accounts of Presidents Barack Obama (@Barack Obama) and Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump). The tweets were posted during the last nine months of President Obama’s effective presidency and the first nine months of President Trump’s presidency. The tweets are analysed using automated text analysis which is interpreted through an SF-MDA lens, supplemented by manual analysis. The analysis examines ideational and interpersonal emphasis in the tweets with the aim of showing how the composition and content construct a view of how each president and his presidency are presented to the public. The findings suggest marked contrasts in presidential style with President Trump foregrounding the interpersonal while President Obama foregrounds the ideational. Where President Trump presents as self-promoting, autocratic, opinionated and igniting discord in his tweets, President Obama presents as democratic, moderate, restrained and seeking social harmony.

scholarly journals The Pragmatism of US Foreign Policy in the Obama and Trump Administrations.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 580-617
Author(s):  
Hema Niazi Hamad
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
American Foreign Policy ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Political Perspective ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
Important Position

       This researched has tried to analyze the philosophy of pragmatics and its development as well as applying it on the level of America’s foreign policy in the cabinet of both American Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump in a comparative way to analyze and investigate it.      The philosophy of Pragmatics in the center of American policy had an important position in the formulation of foreign policies and decisions and its application between Barack Obama and Donald Trump’s administration, was embodied in different forms and mechanisms which understanding this political perspective and direction is helpful to increase an understanding about formulation and application of American foreign policy.      It has been tried to answer the main question of the research within the context of this research, which is how did the main and clear difference of getting benefit from pragmatism between both Obama and Trump’s administration has reflected in the American foreign policy?        In the research, it was hypothesized that pragmatism was generally used in American foreign policy to protect America’s living interests and applying pragmatism between each Obama and Trump’s administration and how it is reflected in American foreign policy.     This research has reached the conclusion that pragmatism in the era of Barak Obama’s administration has embodied itself in the form of a clever and hidden soft Power that has not ignored actors and other parties in the international arena despite the desire to protect American interests. But in Donald Trump’s era, pragmatism has applied itself in the form of hard, obvious pragmatism, economic, and political interests of America, which was the main desire to protect America’s interests.

Mass Partisan Polarization: Measuring a Relational Concept

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 107-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alban Lauka ◽  
Jennifer McCoy ◽  
Rengin B. Firat
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Empirical Validity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Relational Concept ◽  
Validity Tests ◽  
Mass Level

With recent political developments sparking sharp divisions within democracies, an understanding of the dynamics of polarization is ever more necessary. Yet we still lack the tools necessary for its comparative study at the mass level. Finding that conventional measures of polarization as ideological distance between parties or among voters do not fully capture political polarization, we develop a new index of mass partisan polarization based on support and rejection of political parties by the public. We argue that measuring polarization over political parties allows us to capture divisions over a broader range of identities or issues which parties can represent or take positions on. Using Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data, our empirical validity tests support this argument. It is our hope that this index may facilitate the further comparative study of mass political polarization on a global scale.

scholarly journals The tabloid discourse of American presidents of the twenty-first century

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
First Century ◽  
Value Systems ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Presidential Discourse ◽  
High Emotionality

The article focuses on the analysis of the conceptual and communicative aspects of the 21st century US presidential discourse, which is influenced by the media and has the properties of the tabloid. Tabloid media are characterized by simplified content, they are overwhelmed by emotions, often focused on aggression. The phenomenon of tabloidization, simplification and stereotyping of contemporary US culture can be seen in the public discourse of presidents George W. Bush (junior), Barack Obama, Donald Trump. The most prominent tabloid characteristics of the presidential discourse are simplicity and stereotypical information, the use of manipulative and imposing strategies, high emotionality, engagement with the audience, a combination of colloquial and literary vocabulary, stylistic hybridization. The taboid presidential discourse is intended to facilitate citizens' reactions, manipulate their consciousness and passions, transform their worldviews and value systems, and thus stimulate the implementation of the actions imposed in the discourse.

scholarly journals Weltpolizist Obama

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (169) ◽  
Author(s):  
Horst Heitmann
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
National Security ◽  
War On Terror ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The Public ◽  
Great Danger

When Barack Obama first came to power he was widely regarded as the perfect “anti-Bush”. However, in the field of US foreign policy, Obama has essentially continued to pursue Bush’s agenda, especially as regards the so-called “war on terror”. Although Obama’s government has abandoned this concept from the public discourse, it has conducted an aggressive policy: Obama escalated the war in Afghanistan and unleashed an unprecedented drone war which takes place under a veil of official secrecy. On Iran, Obama was not serious in his first term about starting a dialogue with Teheran and there is a great danger of war over Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions. Obama’s policy in the Middle East has not deviated from the position of previous US governments. While his foreign policy within a multilateral context seems to signal a departure from Bush’s unilateralism, Obama has successfully avoided from being portrayed as weak on national security matters by the Republicans.

scholarly journals CONCILIATOR VS BLOC LEADER : PERBANDINGAN KEBIJAKAN BARACK OBAMA & DONALD TRUMP DALAM MERESPON PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI CHINA

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Ainun Arta Zubaidah ◽  
Ratih Herningtyas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
United States Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Individual Factor ◽  
The Us ◽  
Strategic Policies

ABSTRACT Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the United States has become the world's undisputed economic superpower. However, the economic reforms carried out by China since the 1980s have had a big effect on its economic growth, so that it is able to rank as the second largest economy in the world after the United States. This makes America must respond to China's development by making strategic policies. State leaders have an important role in determining the direction of United States Foreign Policy. From 2009 to 2018, America underwent 2 transitions of leadership, namely from President Barack Obama to being replaced by President Donald Trump. Even though the two leadership eras are close together, the US Foreign Policy towards China is in stark contrast. This research will analyze how the differences in the US Foreign Policy against China in the Barack Obama and Donald Trump Era and the factors that cause differences in their policies by using the idiosyncratic individual factor approach. This article finds that the different backgrounds in the life of a country's leader will influence their perception in determining the direction of their foreign policy. Key words: U.S. Foreign Policy, China, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Idiosyncratic, Psychobiography

The Road to Iraq

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Idrees Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Iraq War ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Road ◽  
Cohesive Group ◽  
Political Agents

The Road to Iraq is an empirical investigation that explains the causes of the Iraq War, identifies its main agents, and demonstrates how the war was sold to decision makers and by decision makers to the public. It shows how a small but ideologically coherent and socially cohesive group of determined political agents used the contingency of 9/11 to outflank a sceptical foreign policy establishment, military brass and intelligence apparatus and provoked a war that has had disastrous consequences.

Helter Skelter or All Together Now: Beatles songs associated with the last 2 U.S. presidents.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ger Rijkers
Keyword(s):  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump

With the aid of the Nexis Uni database of newspaper, magazine and online articles, an analysis was made of Beatles songs associated with either Barack Obama or Donald Trump. The Beatles song most often associated with Donald Trump is "Helter Skelter", for Barack Obama this is "All Together Now"

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