scholarly journals Consistent changes in twenty-first century daily precipitation from regional climate simulations for Korea using two convection parameterizations

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
E.-S. Im ◽  
W. J. Gutowski ◽  
F. Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Twenty First Century

How Often Will It Rain?

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 4801-4818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Sun ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Robert W. Portmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (a low projection), A1B (a medium projection), and A2 (a high projection) during the twenty-first century, all the models consistently show a shift toward more intense and extreme precipitation for the globe as a whole and over various regions. For both SRES B1 and A2, most models show decreased daily precipitation frequency and all the models show increased daily precipitation intensity. The multimodel averaged percentage increase in the precipitation intensity (2.0% K−1) is larger than the magnitude of the precipitation frequency decrease (−0.7% K−1). However, the shift in precipitation frequency distribution toward extremes results in large increases in very heavy precipitation events (>50 mm day−1), so that for very heavy precipitation, the percentage increase in frequency is much larger than the increase in intensity (31.2% versus 2.4%). The climate model projected increases in daily precipitation intensity are, however, smaller than that based on simple thermodynamics (∼7% K−1). Multimodel ensemble means show that precipitation amount increases during the twenty-first century over high latitudes, as well as over currently wet regions in low- and midlatitudes more than other regions. This increase mostly results from a combination of increased frequency and intensity. Over the dry regions in the subtropics, the precipitation amount generally declines because of decreases in both frequency and intensity. This indicates that wet regions may get wetter and dry regions may become drier mostly because of a simultaneous increase (decrease) of precipitation frequency and intensity.

scholarly journals Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the Twenty-First Century from Global and Regional Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4664-4687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward K. Vizy ◽  
Kerry H. Cook ◽  
Julien Crétat ◽  
Naresh Neupane
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
West African ◽  
First Century ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Surface Moisture ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Confident regional-scale climate change predictions for the Sahel are needed to support adaptation planning. State-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM) simulations at 90- and 30-km resolutions are run and analyzed along with output from five coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to predict how the Sahel summer surface temperature, precipitation, and surface moisture are likely to change at the mid- and late-twenty-first century due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario and evaluate confidence in such projections. Future lateral boundary conditions are derived from CMIP5 AOGCMs. It is shown that the regional climate model can realistically simulate the current summer evolution of the West African monsoon climate including the onset and demise of the Sahel wet season, a necessary but not sufficient condition for confident prediction. RCM and AOGCM projections indicate the likelihood for increased surface air temperatures over this century, with Sahara and Sahel temperature increases of 2–3.5 K by midcentury, and 3–6 K by late century. Summer rainfall and surface moisture are also projected to increase over most of the Sahel. This is primarily associated with an increase in rainfall intensity and not a lengthening of the wet season. Pinpointing exactly when the rainfall and surface moisture increase will first commence and by exactly what magnitude is less certain as these predictions appear to be model dependent. Models that simulate stronger warming over the Sahara are associated with larger and earlier rainfall increases over the Sahel due to an intensification of the low-level West African westerly jet, and vice versa.

scholarly journals Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Basin*,+

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1661-1684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Val Bennington ◽  
Steve Vavrus
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
First Century ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Lake Effect ◽  
Lake Model ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Projected changes in lake-effect snowfall by the mid- and late twenty-first century are explored for the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Simulations from two state-of-the-art global climate models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are dynamically downscaled according to the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The downscaling is performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) with 25-km grid spacing, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model. Both downscaled models produce atmospheric warming and increased cold-season precipitation. The Great Lakes’ ice cover is projected to dramatically decline and, by the end of the century, become confined to the northern shallow lakeshores during mid-to-late winter. Projected reductions in ice cover and greater dynamically induced wind fetch lead to enhanced lake evaporation and resulting total lake-effect precipitation, although with increased rainfall at the expense of snowfall. A general reduction in the frequency of heavy lake-effect snowstorms is simulated during the twenty-first century, except with increases around Lake Superior by the midcentury when local air temperatures still remain low enough for wintertime precipitation to largely fall in the form of snow. Despite the significant progress made here in elucidating the potential future changes in lake-effect snowstorms across the Great Lakes basin, further research is still needed to downscale a larger ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations, ideally using a higher-resolution, nonhydrostatic regional climate model coupled to a three-dimensional lake model.

scholarly journals Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

2009 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 1073-1097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose A. Marengo ◽  
Tercio Ambrizzi ◽  
Rosmeri P. da Rocha ◽  
Lincoln M. Alves ◽  
Santiago V. Cuadra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Twenty First Century

scholarly journals Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of High-Intensity Precipitation Events over West Africa for the Late Twenty-First Century*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (16) ◽  
pp. 6475-6488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla ◽  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Jeremy S. Pal ◽  
Peter Gibba ◽  
Ibourahima Kebe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
First Century ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study, the response of the annual cycle of high-intensity daily precipitation events over West Africa to anthropogenic greenhouse gas for the late twenty-first century is investigated using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model experiments. For the present day, the RCM ensemble substantially improves the simulation of the annual cycle for various precipitation statistics compared to the driving Earth system models. The late-twenty-first-century projected changes in mean precipitation exhibit a delay of the monsoon season, consistent with previous studies. In addition, these projections indicate a prevailing decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of very wet events, particularly in the premonsoon and early mature monsoon stages, more pronounced over the Sahel and in RCP8.5 than the Gulf of Guinea and in RCP4.5. This is due to the presence of stronger moisture convergence in the boundary layer that sustains intense precipitation once convection is initiated. The premonsoon season experiences the largest changes in daily precipitation statistics, particularly toward an increased risk of drought associated with a decrease in mean precipitation and frequency of wet days and an increased risk of flood associated with very wet events. Both of these features can produce significant stresses on important sectors such as agriculture and water resources at a time of the year (e.g., the monsoon onset) where such stresses can have stronger impacts. The results thus point toward the importance of analyzing changes of precipitation characteristics as a function of the regional seasonal and subseasonal cycles of rainfall.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Climate Variability and the “Warming Hole” in North America: Results from CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Climate Simulations*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3511-3527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjiv Kumar ◽  
James Kinter ◽  
Paul A. Dirmeyer ◽  
Zaitao Pan ◽  
Jennifer Adams
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
Cmip5 Climate Models ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Future Emission ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The ability of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models to simulate the twentieth-century “warming hole” over North America is explored, along with the warming hole’s relationship with natural climate variability. Twenty-first-century warming hole projections are also examined for two future emission scenarios, the 8.5 and 4.5 W m−2 representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). Simulations from 22 CMIP5 climate models were analyzed, including all their ensemble members, for a total of 192 climate realizations. A nonparametric trend detection method was employed, and an alternative perspective emphasizing trend variability. Observations show multidecadal variability in the sign and magnitude of the trend, where the twentieth-century temperature trend over the eastern United States appears to be associated with low-frequency (multidecadal) variability in the North Atlantic temperatures. Most CMIP5 climate models simulate significantly lower “relative power” in the North Atlantic multidecadal oscillations than observed. Models that have relatively higher skill in simulating the North Atlantic multidecadal oscillation also are more likely to reproduce the warming hole. It was also found that the trend variability envelope simulated by multiple CMIP5 climate models brackets the observed warming hole. Based on the multimodel analysis, it is found that in the twenty-first-century climate simulations the presence or absence of the warming hole depends on future emission scenarios; the RCP8.5 scenario indicates a disappearance of the warming hole, whereas the RCP4.5 scenario shows some chance (10%–20%) of the warming hole’s reappearance in the latter half of the twenty-first century, consistent with CO2 stabilization.

scholarly journals Urban Areas and Urban–Rural Contrasts under Climate Change: What Does the EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Tell Us?—Investigating near Surface Humidity in Berlin and Its Surroundings

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
First Century ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Twenty First Century

Climate change will impact urban areas. Decision makers need useful climate information to adapt adequately. This research aims to improve understanding of changes in moisture and temperature projected under climate change in Berlin compared to its surroundings. Simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) 0.11° are analyzed, showing a difference in moisture and temperature variables between Berlin and its surroundings. The running mean over 30 years shows a divergence throughout the twenty-first century for relative humidity between Berlin and its surroundings. Under this scenario, Berlin gets drier over time. The Mann-Kendall test quantifies a robust decreasing trend in relative humidity for the multi-model ensemble throughout the twenty-first century. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test for relative humidity indicates a robust climate change signal in Berlin. It is drier and warmer in Berlin compared to its surroundings for all months with the largest difference existing in summer. Additionally, the change in humidity for the period 2070–2099 compared to 1971–2000 is larger in the summer months. This study presents results to better understand near surface moisture change and related variables under long-term climate change in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings using a regional climate multi-model ensemble.

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