Changes in extreme, cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Gutowski ◽  
Stephanie S. Willis ◽  
Jason C. Patton ◽  
Benjamin R. J. Schwedler ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Precipitation Events

scholarly journals The Application of Fred Sanders' Teaching to Current Research on Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation Events in the Saint Lawrence River Valley Region

2008 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 241-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Gyakum
Keyword(s):  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Circulation Anomaly ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Saint Lawrence River ◽  
Physical Insight ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Fred Sanders' teaching and research contributions in the area of quasigeostrophic theory are highlighted in this paper. The application of these contributions is made to the topic of extreme cold-season precipitation events in the Saint Lawrence valley in the northeastern United States and southern Quebec. This research focuses on analyses of Saint Lawrence valley heavy precipitation events. Synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation anomaly precursors are typically identified several days prior to these events. These precursors include transient upper-level troughs, strong moisture transports into the region, and anomalously large precipitable water amounts. The physical insight of Fred Sanders' work is used in the analysis of these composite results. Further details of this insight are provided in analyses of one case of heavy precipitation.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifeng Peng ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
Donghai Wu ◽  
Bijian Tang ◽  
Peipei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

scholarly journals The effect of atmospheric rivers on cold-season heavy precipitation events in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neda Esfandiari ◽  
Hassan Lashkari
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Western Slope ◽  
Arid Areas ◽  
Gulf Of Aden ◽  
Zagros Mountains ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) as massive and concentrated water vapour paths can have a critical impact on extreme events in arid and semi-arid areas. This study investigated the effect of ARs on heavy precipitation events during the cold, rainy months (November–April) in Iran for 11 years. The results showed that 107 ARs had an influence on heavy precipitation, which providing partial moisture for Iran's precipitation. On average, 11 heavy precipitation days were linked to the presence of ARs in the six cold months of each year. During the study period, ARs accounted for almost 20–50% of the country's total heavy precipitation monthly. Although most ARs entered the country from the south through coastal areas, the western part of Iran, especially elevated stations along the western slope of the Zagros Mountains, received the highest heavy precipitation. Accordingly, about 66% of ARs directly originated from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Moreover, December experienced the highest frequency of ARs linked to heavy precipitation during the statistical period.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Flow Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation and Atmospheric Rivers over Norway

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (4) ◽  
pp. 1415-1428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imme Benedict ◽  
Karianne Ødemark ◽  
Thomas Nipen ◽  
Richard Moore
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Fuzzy Cluster ◽  
The South ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract A climatology of extreme cold season precipitation events in Norway from 1979 to 2014 is presented, based on the 99th percentile of the 24-h accumulated precipitation. Three regions, termed north, west, and south are identified, each exhibiting a unique seasonal distribution. There is a proclivity for events to occur during the positive phase of the NAO. The result is statistically significant at the 95th percentile for the north and west regions. An overarching hypothesis of this work is that anomalous moisture flux, or so-called atmospheric rivers (ARs), are integral to extreme precipitation events during the Norwegian cold season. An objective analysis of the integrated vapor transport illustrates that more than 85% of the events are associated with ARs. An empirical orthogonal function and fuzzy cluster technique is used to identify the large-scale weather patterns conducive to the moisture flux and extreme precipitation. Five days before the event and for each of the three regions, two patterns are found. The first represents an intense, southward-shifted jet with a southwest–northeast orientation. The second identifies a weak, northward-shifted, zonal jet. As the event approaches, regional differences become more apparent. The distinctive flow pattern conducive to orographically enhanced precipitation emerges in the two clusters for each region. For the north and west regions, this entails primarily zonal flow impinging upon the south–north-orientated topography, the difference being the latitude of the strong flow. In contrast, the south region exhibits a significant southerly component to the flow.

scholarly journals Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cenxiao Sun ◽  
Zhihong Jiang ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Qiyao Hou ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
Southeast China ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Extreme Cold

Abstract The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are ‘transient simulations’ and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006–2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.

scholarly journals Major Cold-Season Precipitation Events at Iqaluit, Nunavut

ARCTIC ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabrielle Gascon ◽  
Ronald E. Stewart ◽  
William Henson
Keyword(s):  
Cold Season ◽  
Precipitation Events

Global warming decreases rainfall but increases short-duration rain-rates during heavy precipitation events in the eastern Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe Armon ◽  
Francesco Marra ◽  
Chaim Garfinkel ◽  
Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein ◽  
Ori Adam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Short Duration ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rain Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the densely populated eastern Mediterranean trigger natural hazards, such as flash floods and urban flooding. However, they also supply critical amounts of fresh water to this desert-bounded region. The impact of global warming on such events is thus vital to the inhabitants of the region. HPEs are poorly represented in global climate models, leading to large uncertainty in their sensitivity to climate change. Is total rainfall in HPEs decreasing, as projected for the mean annual rainfall? Are short duration rain rates decreasing, or rather increasing as expected from the higher atmospheric moisture content? Where are the changes more pronounced, near the sea or farther inland towards the desert? To answer these questions, we have identified 41 historical HPEs from a long weather radar record (1990-2014) and simulated them in the same resolution (1 km<sup>2</sup>) using the convection-permitting weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Results were validated versus the radar data, and served as a control group to simulations of the same events under ‘pseudo global warming’ (PGW) conditions. The PGW methodology we use imposes results from the ensemble mean of 29 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the century on the initial and boundary conditions of each event simulated. The results indicate that HPEs in the future may become more temporally focused: they are 6% shorter and exhibit maximum local short-duration rain rates which are ~20% higher on average, with larger values over the sea and the wetter part of the region, and smaller over the desert. However, they are also much drier; total precipitation during the future-simulated HPEs decreases substantially (~-20%) throughout the eastern Mediterranean. The meteorological factors leading to this decrease include shallower cyclones and the projected differential land-sea warming, which causes reduced relative humidity over land. These changing rainfall patterns are expected to amplify water scarcity – a known nexus of conflict and strife in the region – highlighting the urgent need for deeper knowledge, and the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>

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